US Election

[DaveShoelace]

Romney is currently 4.3 on Betfair.

Based on what I've been reading and watching that sounds like incredible value, but I've never really followed political markets, are they usually pretty reliable?

[horseplayer]

been a big discussion on tikays thread

[kpnuts]

PP paid out on Obama this morning. Now I realise their US marketing/advertising budget is vast at the moment, as seen at recent Ryder Cup, but they're not known for giving away money either!

http://blog.paddypower.com/2012/11/04/paddy-power-pays-out-400000-on-obama-victory-in-u-s-presidential-election/

[Tal]

PP paid out on Obama this morning. Now I realise their US marketing/advertising budget is vast at the moment, as seen at recent Ryder Cup, but they're not known for giving away money either!

http://blog.paddypower.com/2012/11/04/paddy-power-pays-out-400000-on-obama-victory-in-u-s-presidential-election/

That's bananas. Every major news medium is saying it's close and, owing to the unique way the country and the voting system work, it always is.

Obama is largely recognised as being ahead and has been finding some gas late on in the race, but paying out seems absurd.

Just Paddy Power marketing IMO

[redarmi]

Obama is a true 1/10 shot at this point imo.

[hector62]

If you are thinking of betting on Romney then watch the latest episode of a  TV programme called " Real time with Bill Maher" and you will keep your money in your pocket.

[Longy]

Everything is pointing to an Obama once you cut through the waffle and look at the key states. Romney needs to win Ohio for example and all the polls point to that being unlikely.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ is a really good statistical look at the election. Nate silver the guy behind is an ex poker pro and absolutely nailed the last election.

[TommyD]

I think I've been warped by rolling 24hr news to think it's close.  All logic should point to an easy Obama win but they've been throwing so much 'too close to call' stuff at everyone it's starting to not look like a sure thing in my head.

Obama must be a lock surely.  Can someone who doesn't watch Sky News that much please confirm this?

[The Camel]

Is there a chance of people lying to pollsters because they are too embarrassed to admit they are going to vote for Romney?

[AndrewT]

Is there a chance of people lying to pollsters because they are too embarrassed to admit they are going to vote for Romney?

If they admitted voting for George W Bush, they're not going to get all coy about Romney.

[Laxie]

Is there a chance of people lying to pollsters because they are too embarrassed to admit they are going to vote for Romney?

I'm just back from 3 weeks in Ohio and I would definitely say "Yes" to that question.  Very few Romney 'fans' are shouting it.  Only the die hard republicans who would have voted for whatever republican was on the ticket are willing to say it out loud.  

Meanwhile, democrats in the middle/upper middle class are looking at the upper class (predominately republican) and saying, "I want what they have."  So there's a quiet shift happening around the place and I honestly couldn't tell you who I think will win Ohio.  

Both parties spent a fortune on campaign ads that run 24/7.  Then Hurricane Sandy came a calling.  In that last crucial week before elections, half the homes had no power to watch said ads in the swing state of Ohio.  Many homes are still without power and aren't expected to have it until middle of next week.  Would love to know how much money was wasted on telly ads for a target audience who can't see them.  That said, everyone was pretty sick of the ads and tuned them out anyway.  

[TheDazzler]

Is there a chance of people lying to pollsters because they are too embarrassed to admit they are going to vote for Romney?

If they admitted voting for George W Bush, they're not going to get all coy about Romney.

They didn't admit to voting for Bush against Kerry.
Kerry was ahead after exit polls and Bush was some big price, 7/2 or something. My mate told me to get on Bush, I didn't, he did and he never fails to remind me every 4 years.

[TommyD]

I think voter turnout is going to be key, tons of apathy and 'don't care who wins, not going to change anything' feeling going on.  Last time out I think the turnout was around 60% which is pretty high for the U.S.  No way they hit those numbers now with everything which has been going on, both parties need to get as much of their base and leaning voters in the voting booth as possible.  Might be a chance more people in Romney's base do that Obama's, especially if the middle ground think Obama's won anyway.  That was part of the problem for Kerry IIRC.

[tikay]

Surely, even if it were NOT close, the Media would suggest it was. The closer it appears to be, the more Media interest there is. Vested interest & all that.

Naturally, the Media can be trusted to tell the truth, & not put a self-serving spin on things.

[redarmi]

The thing is it is close.  In all probability both of the candidates will get close to 50% of the vote and it is a probably 95%+ chance that both will poll within 2% points of each other in terms of the popular vote but that really doesn't matter because of the electoral college voting system in the states.  If Romney wins the popular vote there is still a decent chance Obama becomes president.  If Obama wins the popular vote there is less than a 1% chance he loses the presidency.  Despite my confidence in Obama winning I still believe there are risk factors.  In Ohio the guy in charge of the voting process is a Republican that is trying his best to tilt the voting process there against the Democrats through various different legal means and I think there will be other tricks like that.  I am not sure that Americans are embarrassed to be voting for Romney.  We are talking about Americans here and pretending to be liberal isn't a fashionable trait in the way it is in Europe, if it was the tea party wouldn't have so much popular support and the media wouldn't be dominated by idiots like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.