Confidence at an all time low so playing badly and clueless.

[tikay]

Why is everyone getting so wound up? If he thinks that HMDB is the be all and end all let him

At last.......

[Woodsey]

You should be grinding smaller stuff online a few days a week Jason, just to give yourself a bit of extra income and to keep your finger on the pulse. Playing only a few times a month can't be good.

[George2Loose]

If somebody replies to me, especially criticising me r something the. In definite going to read as reply after the 10th time it's just beyond frustrating.

Only if you let it. Give Jason your advice- I'm sure he's old enough to pick out the pieces he wants to

[redsimon]

Jason, hope I don't derail this, but what do you do?

Do you play just the weekend MTTs @ DtD or are you playing live most nights? The old £20 rebuy cash cows in the North dried up some time ago.

If you want to get a serious roll together I imagine you got to grind online cash. If you hate online or think you'll lose you got to play live cash and be prepared to travel.

Playing MTTs live seems to be the nut worst way to try and make a living.

You might need to get a "proper" job again?

[aaron1867]

I'm disappointed with how this has gone of course and feel really bad, but without opinions, we wouldn't have a forum.

Like I said Patrick when you posted I didn't think you took time to read the whole topic, you came in and posted and I had an opinion, that is all. For you to come back and say "I'm a pro, take what I say as gospel" was ridic, especially when we are talking about live play & you have no notable or many live cashes.

we can talk about online, but it's not about online, Jason wants to play live poker, but is running bad with certain ways to put it and certain ways of saying "go online" is silly when by the looks of it Jason needs a quick upturn as he said he was playing with "scared money" why put more scared money on the line at something you are losing at?! I don't mind playing smaller stuff, I will play it all night long when I am not upto much, but there is much difference between me and Jason and that it's not that I am sat here relying on it or worrying about a loss.

I think it might be an idea to drop down the buyin, till everything brightens up. You have to take a step back sometimes, look a Crystal Palace, they drew a game one time, then came back and won 5 or 6 on the bounce.

[titaniumbean]

POKER IS POKER

ONLINE IS HARDER


IF YOU CAN BEAT ONLINE LOWSTAKES MARGINALLY YOU CAN CLUB LIVE PLAYERS OVER THE HEAD OVER AND OVER




Hendon mob is immaterial and gives wrong impressions.

Such a base misunderstanding of variance and how MTT Poker works itt from OP and Aaron.



I am the joke tilt.

[TightEnd]

IF YOU CAN BEAT ONLINE LOWSTAKES MARGINALLY YOU CAN CLUB LIVE PLAYERS OVER THE HEAD OVER AND OVER

So why don't you? (very successful Online iirc)

[titaniumbean]

    

[smashedagain]

POKER IS POKER

ONLINE IS HARDER


IF YOU CAN BEAT ONLINE LOWSTAKES MARGINALLY YOU CAN CLUB LIVE PLAYERS OVER THE HEAD OVER AND OVER




Hendon mob is immaterial and gives wrong impressions.

Such a base misunderstanding of variance and how MTT Poker works itt from OP and Aaron.



I am the joke tilt.

but I am learning and its all about educating myself and Aaron if he wants to listen. Remember when you had your run of 18 months or so of not making a day 2 at Dtd and I used to laugh my cock off because I was cashing every other tourney and satting into em all in the same period. Shame on me :/

Kids in bath so on lifeguard duty but will give a tldr response to the last few pages in a bit.

Posted on Facebook earlier that some may not have seen.


Alister (5) just asked me something and I said "if you are lucky son" to which he replied "of course I am lucky, you are my dad" I was made up

[titaniumbean]

shaddap and wait for the PM (I sent you a message on fb after pwning your status).

Quite simply, Aaron doesn't seem to listen or at least take in what he reads on the screen.

edit-
oh if we're facebook status bragging then one comment was-


"Kids don't understand variance"

my response.

"Andrew Wayman Nor does his dad"


<3 me

[TightEnd]

Jason

distiling all of it and giving my honest view I think you need to get a non poker job and play recreationally. You'd then enjoy it again and quite likely win again

I don't think grinding low online and putting hours of study in is for you (though all of things being equal it would be preferable to dropping down live in the absence of suitable games these dayss), especially with three kids under 5/6 quite rightly your main priority.

I am of the view that you are trying to beat the live games with one hand tied behind your back (bad analogy, but you get the point)

[claypole]

Tighty wins thread - absolutely pmsl

However, I think lots of good advice in the thread - and Pleno's input, IMO is very pertinent and spot on.  If I look at my experiences over the past 3 years, there is a clear correlation in both the good and bad times (current bad) to both playing on line and discussing hands and strategy with heroes.  In addition the other key factor is confidence, I don't care what anyone says, it's confidence game - combined with learning, education and playing volume (from a variance and an experience perspective).

My advice would be all of the above and get some work doing something you love; I'm not sure of your financial circumstances, however doing some other stuff you enjoy and getting some perspective on poker is a good thing.

Gl mate - I empathise with a lot of what your saying and feeling; and to be honest personally I know the reasons / advice Pleno is giving is fundamentally the way forward, just hard for us old boys to learn

PS - Aaron must be levelling

[Honeybadger]

Just my two cents worth...

In my opinion there is no such thing as a 'live tournament professional'. It is simply not a feasible and realistic means of making a living.

There are a LOT of players out there who are definitely +EV in live tournaments. But that is not the same thing as saying they can realistically expect to make regular money. The variance in tournament poker is immense. The vast majority of those who think they know this actually do not fully comprehend it. And the amount of volume that it is possible to put in over a year is tiny. If you grind extremely hard all year you may be able to play 250 live tournaments right? That is a tiny sample size. After 4 years you may have played over 1000 tournaments - still a tiny sample size. A lot of +EV players will be losing money after 1000 tournaments. In fact, quite a lot of the very best tournament players will lose money over 1000 tournaments. It may be +EV, but it is not a viable and realistic way to try to earn a living.

I want to give an analogy. Imagine that you somehow knew that certain numbers were more likely to be drawn in the National Lottery, and thus you could select 100 different combinations of numbers every draw and would have a positive expectation. Would you be +EV entering the lottery every week? Of course you would. Would it be reasonable for you to expect to be able to support your family for the next five years through doing this? Of course it wouldn't. By far the most likely outcome after five years is that you would have lost money. There is a small chance that you will win a LOT of money - that's what makes you entering the lottery +EV. But it would be silly for you to hope that this can provide a regular income. You still would be making a good bet, but that does not mean you can expect to win - even over a five year period.

That's basically what live tournament poker is: a +EV lottery. There is nothing wrong with entering live tournaments for the competitive challenge, the sporting drama, and for fun. If you are +EV in these tournaments then so much the better. If you could live for 1000 years then no doubt you'd have made money from live tournaments by the end of your life (if you are indeed +EV). But to try to 'make a regular living' from live tournaments is completely unrealistic. It is a good gamble, a good bet. That is all.

There are plenty of players who you could point to and say, "well, what about x, y or z... they have been making it pay for x number of years. So it IS possible." That would be missing the point. There will always be players who have been lucky enough to outrun the variance in the short term. And make no mistake about it... your entire tournament life is nothing more than the short term - it is impossible to reach the long-term in a lifetime of tournament poker.

In my opinion the only way to realistically make money in live poker - without needing to 'get lucky' - is through playing cash games. Even in cash games the variance is huge and it is very possible to run below or above expectation for several years in live cash. But you at least have a fighting chance of making a living in live cash without having to get hugely lucky to beat short-term variance.

The only way tournament poker can be a realistic way to make regular money is if you play online and put in serious volume every week. And by serious volume I mean that you'd play about the same number of tournaments every week as you could do in a year of live play. If you are +EV in online tournaments you could still expect to have losing stretches that last several months on a regular basis. But you'd have a fighting chance of realising your expectation over the course of, say, a year of online poker.

I have nothing against live tournaments BTW. I play the odd one myself very occasionally and really enjoy them. I just know that anyone who has 'made live tournaments pay' over the last few years has been LUCKY. They may very well be excellent players who have a very high expected ROI in tournaments. But they have still been lucky, because there will have been many players who were just as good as them who have played just as many tournaments over the last few years and are net losers.

If anyone disagrees with what I say, have a read of these three excellent articles:

http://www.thehendonmob.com/alex_rousso/id_rather_be_lucky_than_good

http://www.thehendonmob.com/alex_rousso/brace-aments_are_too_much_of_a_gamble

http://www.thehendonmob.com/alex_rousso/vegas_trip_simulator

[youthnkzR]

So frustrating when you have the likes of Pleno, Alex, lildave etc etc giving their time posting on forums and thinking about situations like this and someone just comes in and makes a mess of everything.

At the end of the day its an internet forum, these are meant for discussions and for people to share their views and personal beliefs about certain topics. Aaron is only voicing what he feels is correct and from his comments throughout this thread (when aimed towards the OP) he has been nothing but supportive, and this is the right approach, however i have to say that the majority of the content is wrong.

On topic of OPs first post, I must admit that i 100% agree with everything Pleno has said and think that online poker is definitely the way to go in regards to his dilemma. There's numerous benefits to it; your game will become more diverse, you'll be able to put the amount of volume in required to make a good living from the game (not saying OP is not already doing this, but this will make it so much easier), Expenses can and should be kept to a minimum (assuming OP owns a PC/Laptop)... The list goes on. However, playing online poker does require a lot of time, a lot of effort and a lot dedication, playing one/two live MTTs per week is a world away from the sheer volume you'll be required to put in if you decide to pursue a career as an online MTT grinder - and it this you need to realize! If you wish to support not just yourself, but a whole family, it will actually be very hard work, but if you love the game enough, have the time, and are willing to put the amount of effort in, then it can easily be done!

OP, if you decide to make the transition to online, then i suggest you do a few things (will rank them in order of importance):
1) Buy HEM - It's a very useful tool and as much as some people will disagree - you'll definitely be at a disadvantage without it.
2) Start Low - Just because you (i am assuming here) have played live MTTs with large buy-ins, do not assume that you are going to get the same types of results at the same level online, because you most likely will not!
3) Get coaching - A few sessions with a decent MTT coach will be enough to learn you the basics of online MTTs (It's a different kind of poker).
4) Study - Review your hand histories, learn from your past errors, fix your leaks - you'll be surprised how much a few hours a week studying can help your game - and therefore increase your profits!

I hope your confidence returns soon!

[Tal]

In the current climate, having a guaranteed source of income is not bad advice.

Everyone can give an opinion but only you know what you can afford to lose and that, I have always believed, is the only stat that matters.

As a bona fide rec, I enjoy poker as a hobby. I had a good first 6 months of the year, playing prob 3 weekends a month, but I have a rule that I play within my means (borne out of a couple of really stupid cash games a couple of years ago!), so I stay at a level where I am comfortable playing what I think is my best, without having pound signs hovering above the drain in my mind.

The last five months haven't gone anywhere nearly as well but I'm in work and I'm only using "disposable" income to play.

I like having a hobby that basically pays for itself and poker has pretty much done that for me (I don't keep records but I have a basic idea). There are plenty of interesting and pleasant people around at casinos and I have fun socialising with them.

I've played long enough now to have an idea broadly what I am doing and to know there is a lot more I'd need to do to if I ever want to move up to playing at a higher level.

I don't really fancy putting the graft in for that tbh (Heaven forbid I learn in the process I'm not good enough!), so I accept my lot, chat about hands, gradually improve and have fun.

But, to me, I don't see it ever becoming more than a hobby.

Cliffs: work out what you want. Then work out how you're going to get it.