Confidence at an all time low so playing badly and clueless.

[Tal]

It isthe same reason if someone said eight of the worst players ever were sitting down for a 5/10 game and were looking for a ninth man, you wouldn't sell the house to play!

[Cf]

It isthe same reason if someone said eight of the worst players ever were sitting down for a 5/10 game and were looking for a ninth man, you wouldn't sell the house to play!

Exactly. It would be a +EV bet for sure but the chance of losing your house outweighs any possible monetary gain.

[atdc21]

I never mind sacrificing a bit of profit if it means reducing any potential possible loss.
If you back a horse at say 10/1 for £100 on betfair and lay it off in running at evens for £100 you have in effect had a free bet, you will never go skint having free bets, BUT some people disagree and say they are losing too much of their profit to make it worthwhile, a lot depends on individuals aims long or short term for the bet.

[cambridgealex]

It isthe same reason if someone said eight of the worst players ever were sitting down for a 5/10 game and were looking for a ninth man, you wouldn't sell the house to play!

What sort of house do you live in?

Or are you just used to REALLY deep games?!

[MANTIS01]

I'm gonna say this simply..and only once.

I totes get all Stu's points as I am way above average intelligence. However, this is one of those arguments/assertions that the more you understand the more you realise that you don't actually need to get it at all as a live poker player.

Temperament - so, how you deal with variance (whether or not you know what it is) may be the single biggest factor. This marks out a winning live tourny poker pro, and players like me that excel in this format, as you can then employ your arsenal of self awareness, empathy, courage & confidence to keep smacking variance in the face

In fact I would say heightened awareness of this additional factor makes you worse at poker. If we agree you wont play enough comps to even out variance all that really matters is how you play in this singular comp today. All your focus should be on playing the best poker you can in this one comp, and that means making pure +EV decisions at all times. If you make -EV decisions because you add variance factors into your decision making process then quite simply you are a worse player than those who do not. If you limp into the cash on the bubble then you aren't as good a poker player today as somebody who shoved without fear. Who knows what type of player you will become when you invite such uncertainty and hesitation into your game, letting additional outside factors infiltrate your thoughts, perhaps you will look to take weaker and safer lines more readily in the future. As hard as it might be the black and white of what is correct can't be diluted, well it can but the result is less effective poker.

I can learn about what makes the sun rise in the morning and worry about what would happen if any of the elements failed so we had no sun. Or I can accept things just happen, feel the sun on my back and enjoy the day. If you are worried about factors other than the game and doing what is right I suggest the game is too big.

[Tal]

It isthe same reason if someone said eight of the worst players ever were sitting down for a 5/10 game and were looking for a ninth man, you wouldn't sell the house to play!

What sort of house do you live in?

Or are you just used to REALLY deep games?!

More indicative of my level of confidence in my cash game against even fictitious recs

[smashedagain]

Jase u seem to be larking about on this thread like you do at the tables? Or is that just my harsh observation?

i am trying to inject a bit if humour George but am also taking it all very seriously too. I have just nipped back to my house and am off straight back out so have only read two more posts up to here so gave a quick reply.

I have also seen a notification about rule 1 don't talk at the table next time.  I am all up for trying this but in all honesty if I did not enjoy playing poker and did not have fun then I would not do it.

[Skgv]

Jase u seem to be larking about on this thread like you do at the tables? Or is that just my harsh observation?

+1

[Honeybadger]

Mantis, I almost always agree with your posts. In this case though I tend to disagree, although of course there is a decent chunk of truth in what you say. It all depends on how you look at it.

I don't think being fully aware of the realities of variance is a detrimental thing to being a successful gambler. In fact I think the absolute opposite - that it is essential if you are to be a highly skilled gambler. The thing that you perhaps haven't grasped is that those who truly, truly understand variance have made complete peace with it. It is impossible to truly 'get' variance without automatically becoming extremely zen about it. And this is the best of all possible mindsets to have as a professional gambler. It is possible to succeed at gambling without truly 'getting it', but this requires a person to be lucky enough not to experience a downswing that is more than he can handle psychologically.

A small number of gamblers will be this lucky - they will never experience the full, unlimited terrors of variance. But for most players it WILL happen to them at some point. And when it does many of them will struggle to cope and are likely to go under very quickly if they don't fully understand variance and are at peace with it. Fwiw, I know that I am not fully there yet - but I also know that I am a LOT further down the path of understanding than the vast majority of professional gamblers.

At some point in almost everyone's gambling career they will experience the most unlikely, most unbelievable, most mind-blowingly ridiculous run of bad luck. I am not talking about your common or garden bad run. I am talking about an extended and completely ridiculous string of events that combine to produce a run so bad that it feels like all the oxygen has been sucked from the room. A thing of wonder and awe... and terror. And when this has happened to a gambler they never see things quite the same again. Something changes forever.

Some (most) players go under when this happens and vanish from the game, never to return. Others survive the experience but are permanently damaged and their game is often ruined forever; for example they may play scared, weak-tight poker for the rest of their careers. A small number of people will, however, survive the experience and come out of it whole. And these people will take great strength from the experience of finally seeing the terrifying infinite void of variance in all its colossal glory... and surviving it.

The better you understand the truth about variance, the more prepared you will be for when that-which-shall-not-be-spoken-about knocks on your door. And the more likely it is that you will be one of those who can stare calmly into the void as it calls to you, and become stronger for the experience rather than going under.

[Skgv]

Mantis, I almost always agree with your posts. In this case though I tend to disagree, although of course there is a decent chunk of truth in what you say. It all depends on how you look at it.

I don't think being fully aware of the realities of variance is a detrimental thing to being a successful gambler. In fact I think the absolute opposite - that it is essential if you are to be a highly skilled gambler. The thing that you perhaps haven't grasped is that those who truly, truly understand variance have made complete peace with it. It is impossible to truly 'get' variance without automatically becoming extremely zen about it. And this is the best of all possible mindsets to have as a professional gambler. It is possible to succeed at gambling without truly 'getting it', but this requires a person to be lucky enough not to experience a downswing that is more than he can handle psychologically. A small number of gamblers will be lucky - they will never experience the true terrors of variance. But for most players it WILL happen to them at some point. And when it does many of them will struggle to cope and are likely to go under very quickly if they don't fully understand variance and are at peace with it. Fwiw, I know that I am not fully there yet - but I also know that I am a LOT further down the path of understanding than the vast majority of professional gamblers.

One thing is definitely the case. At some point in everyone's gambling career they are VERY likely to experience a ridiculous run of bad luck. I am not talking about your common or garden bad run. I am talking about an extended and completely ridiculous string of events that combine to produce a run so bad that it feels like all the oxygen has been sucked from the room. A thing of wonder and awe... and terror. And when this has happened to a gambler they never see things quite the same again. Something changes forever.

Some (most) players go under when this happens, and vanish from the game forever. Others survive the experience but are permanently damaged and their game is often ruined forever; for example they may play scared, weak tight poker for the rest of their careers. A small number of people will, however, survive the experience and come out of it whole. And these people will take great strength from the experience of finally seeing the terrifying infinite void of variance in all its colossal glory... and surviving it.

The better you understand the truth about variance, the more prepared you will be for when that which shall not be spoken about knocks on your door. And thus the more likely you will be able to become one of those who can stare calmly into the void as it calls to you, and become stronger for the experience rather than going under.

Hi stu it is Stuart Barnett correct? I havnt read all of your posts as I would admit I find it challenging as you obv have a higher intellect but this post I wholesomely agree with an you couldn't of hit the nail on the head better if u were still stoned! Great post.

[titaniumbean]

Yes it's Stu "ofc there's food on my top" Barnett.

[Honeybadger]

Hi Pete. Yes I am Stu Barnett.

Thanks for the compliment. It is a bit of a stoner post I admit. But also it is the the truth, as you know. And hand-on-heart I have not smoked anything in at least a month!

[Skgv]

Hi Pete. Yes I am Stu Barnett.

Thanks for the compliment. It is a bit of a stoner post I admit. But also it is the the truth, as you know. And hand-on-heart I have not smoked anything in at least a month!

lol smoked we talking about? Just need confirmation buddy

[MANTIS01]

The problem I have is you talk about the career of a gambler and the entirety of the journey. We have already agreed you wont play enough live comps to make those stats a great consideration. Thus when you sit down for an individual comp the variables of longterm don't really compute with me. It's about the here and now of today and playing well today. If you do that each time you sit down they will be the building blocks of your own individual longterm success and that mentality will give you the best chance of success. If you are on the wrong end of variance so what?

I have played poker for 10 years and gambled for a lot longer. I haven't really studied variance in any detail and what's more I don't care to. When you have played for any reasonable time all you care about is playing well and you know through experience anything can happen after that. If I play well and then get sucked out on I don't give one fuck about it, I just shrug and move on. I did the right thing, it didn't work out, next game. So it seems without any great understanding or study I have arrived at the place you advocate. I think if people can't auto understand why you should retain this mentality when playing poker then poker is not the game for them. People are free to consider what they want and if I play oppos worried about the household bills and what could happen if they move all-in I am ok with that as my mind is free from those considerations. So who is in the better place for a poker comp?

The other night I bricked every comp I played although I played real well. My last comp was a much bigger buy-in to try and get out the hole. I really wanted to cash just for the sake of cashing something so got real passive around the bubble. I did cash for a good score and it was my best result of the day and the overall feeling I had was I played like a dog.

[blueace]

The problem I have is you talk about the career of a gambler and the entirety of the journey. We have already agreed you wont play enough live comps to make those stats a great consideration. Thus when you sit down for an individual comp the variables of longterm don't really compute with me. It's about the here and now of today and playing well today. If you do that each time you sit down they will be the building blocks of your own individual longterm success and that mentality will give you the best chance of success. If you are on the wrong end of variance so what?

I have played poker for 10 years and gambled for a lot longer. I haven't really studied variance in any detail and what's more I don't care to. When you have played for any reasonable time all you care about is playing well and you know through experience anything can happen after that. If I play well and then get sucked out on I don't give one fuck about it, I just shrug and move on. I did the right thing, it didn't work out, next game. So it seems without any great understanding or study I have arrived at the place you advocate. I think if people can't auto understand why you should retain this mentality when playing poker then poker is not the game for them. People are free to consider what they want and if I play oppos worried about the household bills and what could happen if they move all-in I am ok with that as my mind is free from those considerations. So who is in the better place for a poker comp?

The other night I bricked every comp I played although I played real well. My last comp was a much bigger buy-in to try and get out the hole. I really wanted to cash just for the sake of cashing something so got real passive around the bubble. I did cash for a good score and it was my best result of the day and the overall feeling I had was I played like a dog.

I agree with your line; those that take more risks in live poker and are relaxed about 'variance' will do better than those that dont. Tighter players will wait a life time for a bink. Give me balls over brains in live poker anyday, although preferably both.... (not saying iv got one or other, both or neither of course)