Confidence at an all time low so playing badly and clueless.

[Honeybadger]

The thing is Mantis, it is very likely that you 'get' variance and are at peace with it. Even if you have not done any maths or run any simulations, you have an intuitive understanding of the truth of variance. And you have already accepted it ... and moved on. But a lot of people reading this thread have clearly got no idea whatsoever about the realities of variance and these are the guys for whom I have been writing my posts on the topic. Even some guys with a lot more 'experience' than me appear to be fairly clueless about something which is at the very heart of gambling. And I am trying to help these people understand it, because it is so important.

I believe that it is impossible to be a truly good gambler without a proper understanding of variance. It can be a mathematical understanding, an intuitive understanding like yours, or a combination of the two. But it is essential. It's like a musician knowing his scales. Yes a very small number of top musicians genuinely don't know any scales. But in actuality almost all of them know at least a few - they just pretend that they don't. And even those that have never studied any music theory at all almost always understand the principles of melody and harmony on a deep intuitive level.

To say there is no point in thinking about variance is like a seasoned rock musician telling a young kid not to bother learning any music theory because he doesn't use it and just plays by feel. But actually this rock musician DID know a few scales and a bit of theory when he started out back in the day, even if it was just stuff that he got shown by other dudes whilst jamming. The fact that he has transcended it all now and is able to feel the music just means that he has forgotten how important the fundamentals are.

You get it, which is great. But others don't. And I think it will help them if they do.

[Honeybadger]

those that take more risks in live poker and are relaxed about 'variance' will do better than those that dont.

Those that truly understand variance will be more relaxed and accepting of it than anyone else. They will be fully prepared to take risks when necessary - and they will do so with their eyes fully open, staring variance in the face without shrinking from it. And they will be the strongest players.

Tighter players will wait a life time for a bink. Give me balls over brains in live poker anyday, although preferably both.... (not saying iv got one or other, both or neither of course)

Sigh. I wasted a lot of time writing my stuff. After all, poker is just about balls.

[Skgv]

The thing is Mantis, it is very likely that you 'get' variance and are at peace with it. Even if you have not done any maths or run any simulations, you have an intuitive understanding of the truth of variance. And you have already accepted it ... and moved on. But a lot of people reading this thread have clearly got no idea whatsoever about the realities of variance and these are the guys for which I have been writing my posts on the topic. Even some guys with a lot more 'experience' than me appear to be fairly clueless about something which is at the very heart of gambling. And I am trying to help these people understand it, because it is so important.

I believe that it is impossible to be a truly good gambler without a proper understanding of variance. It can be a mathematical understanding, an intuitive understanding like yours, or a combination of the two. But it is essential. It's like a musician knowing his scales. Yes a very small number of top musicians genuinely don't know any scales. But in actuality almost all of them know at least a few - they just pretend that they don't. And even those that have never studied any music theory at all almost always understand the principles of melody and harmony on a deep intuitive level.

To say there is no point in thinking about it is like a seasoned rock musician telling a young kid not to bother learning any music theory because he doesn't use it and just plays by feel. But actually this rock musician DID know a few scales and a bit of theory when he started out back in the day, even if it was just stuff that he got shown by other dudes. The fact that he has transcended it all now and is able to feel the music just means that he has forgotten how important the fundamentals are.

You get it, which is great. But others don't. And I think it will help them if they do.

In real life u can b so condescending at times but on paper u r a genius! I love you more than ever  

[blueace]

those that take more risks in live poker and are relaxed about 'variance' will do better than those that dont.

Those that truly understand variance will be more relaxed and accepting of it than anyone else. They will be fully prepared to take risks when necessary - and they will do so with their eyes fully open, staring variance in the face without shrinking from it. And they will be the strongest players.

Tighter players will wait a life time for a bink. Give me balls over brains in live poker anyday, although preferably both.... (not saying iv got one or other, both or neither of course)

Sigh. I wasted a lot of time writing my stuff. After all, poker is just about balls.

With all due respect I've read and digested all you have written - and I agree with a lot of it - and appreciate the time and effort you have taken to share it. However, the single point I made I still feel is very valid, if my choice of words a little limited.

[smashedagain]

I never mind sacrificing a bit of profit if it means reducing any potential possible loss.
If you back a horse at say 10/1 for £100 on betfair and lay it off in running at evens for £100 you have in effect had a free bet, you will never go skint having free bets, BUT some people disagree and say they are losing too much of their profit to make it worthwhile, a lot depends on individuals aims long or short term for the bet.

have you seen Neil channing's post in Tikays thread.

[smashedagain]

Set of rules for his next comp.

Number 1 no talking

Number 2. Smartly attired.

Number 3. Has to put his hand up and ask the dealer for permission to go to the toilet.

Number 4 do not hendon mob everyone

5. Only allowed to use phone for 5 mins every hour, pay attention to the table.

happy to do this but would it really prove anything over such a small sample.

1. Talking helps my game. As a Nitty player I generally want calling and my talking does help this.

2. I don't own any scruffy clothes and think I generally dress smartly. The hoodies served a purpose as once again as a nitty player I want the hoodies to give the impression that I might play with more flair. And no one can argue that they have not got me noticed for the two years I wore them. I have had more than my fair share of photos appear in blogs and have good relationships with Mickey May, Anne Laymond and tighty. I am always mindful of the benefits of jumping through hoops for bloggers and photographers.

3. Sometimes when you gotta go you gotta go.

4. I can't see that knowing stuff about your opponents is a bad thing. Please don't think that I think the hendonmob is the be all and end all. I  am profiling people from the moment we sit down at the tables.  My latest trick at Dtd is being able to spot the Bankroll Supply players at the table within a couple of orbits. You can also tell the ones on different deals from the guys who get to keep a big chunk on the make up deal to those on the freeroll deal who keep an average chunk. From the moment people make their first bet the sizing etc you then start thinking about the type of player they are. And with some players you don't even have to wait for their first bet.... Sometimes the 30 second pause before they fold every hand tells you something.

5. As I have already said I don't have an iPad and here is another shocker, I don't actually have a phone either
It may look like an iPhone but it is only any good for the internet which is pretty sporadic in Dtd. It has a battery life of about 2 hours and Sinclair will testify that I am usually bugging him at some point to charge up the thing.  I give the impression that I am always on it but usually its dead. It's the same principle as having headphones on but not having anything to play through them. It gives the impression that I am not listening or watching what is going on. I assure you I am.

How often do you see players flash cards before they fold only for three or four players to say "what did he show"... I always snap "he showed aces" which it never is but all the players then say "oh nice hand" or "must be nice".

[titaniumbean]

gotta wear a suit and tie imo. no talking just zen concentration!

[smashedagain]

gotta wear a suit and tie imo. no talking just zen concentration!

i have about 7 suits. Pretty sure I would need to lose at least 2 inches from my waist to get any of the trousers on

[skolsuper]

4. I can't see that knowing stuff about your opponents is a bad thing. Please don't think that I think the hendonmob is the be all and end all. I  am profiling people from the moment we sit down at the tables.  My latest trick at Dtd is being able to spot the Bankroll Supply players at the table within a couple of orbits. You can also tell the ones on different deals from the guys who get to keep a big chunk on the make up deal to those on the freeroll deal who keep an average chunk. From the moment people make their first bet the sizing etc you then start thinking about the type of player they are. And with some players you don't even have to wait for their first bet.... Sometimes the 30 second pause before they fold every hand tells you something.

You must have missed it, but there were a couple of posts on previous pages itt about what you can "know" from a hendonmob.

[titaniumbean]

gotta wear a suit and tie imo. no talking just zen concentration!

i have about 7 suits. Pretty sure I would need to lose at least 2 inches from my waist to get any of the trousers on

honestly wouldn't be surprised if you wandered in in suit jacket with no trousers!

[smashedagain]

4. I can't see that knowing stuff about your opponents is a bad thing. Please don't think that I think the hendonmob is the be all and end all. I  am profiling people from the moment we sit down at the tables.  My latest trick at Dtd is being able to spot the Bankroll Supply players at the table within a couple of orbits. You can also tell the ones on different deals from the guys who get to keep a big chunk on the make up deal to those on the freeroll deal who keep an average chunk. From the moment people make their first bet the sizing etc you then start thinking about the type of player they are. And with some players you don't even have to wait for their first bet.... Sometimes the 30 second pause before they fold every hand tells you something.

You must have missed it, but there were a couple of posts on previous pages itt about what you can "know" from a hendonmob.

i did read it James. You can pick up plenty from someone's hendonmob. I do accept you can't draw any conclusions from someone who does not have any profile.  For instance I see a guy who has results in his local casino where I might know some of the players there and strike up a conversation and make him feel more at ease and like I'm his friend.

I remember playing in the European open in the Vic Oct 2010 and Matt Jarvis was on my table with Joseph Cheung. There was a couple of people hanging around and Matt was holding court telling everyone that he really had a great chance in November. Joseph nearly covered everyone when spitting his tea out when I asked him "before he got lucky in the wsop this summer, was he just dicking about in $500 comps prior to this ". Just breaks the ice don't it.


I ain't got the tackle or enough confidence for the above Titty but will have a word with Mrs H and see if we can hook you up for a 30 second team viewer session if that's your bag

[titaniumbean]

I wouldn't last 30 seconds before tearing my eyes out met.

[smashedagain]

I wouldn't last 30 seconds before tearing my eyes out met.

[skolsuper]

4. I can't see that knowing stuff about your opponents is a bad thing. Please don't think that I think the hendonmob is the be all and end all. I  am profiling people from the moment we sit down at the tables.  My latest trick at Dtd is being able to spot the Bankroll Supply players at the table within a couple of orbits. You can also tell the ones on different deals from the guys who get to keep a big chunk on the make up deal to those on the freeroll deal who keep an average chunk. From the moment people make their first bet the sizing etc you then start thinking about the type of player they are. And with some players you don't even have to wait for their first bet.... Sometimes the 30 second pause before they fold every hand tells you something.

You must have missed it, but there were a couple of posts on previous pages itt about what you can "know" from a hendonmob.

i did read it James. You can pick up plenty from someone's hendonmob. I do accept you can't draw any conclusions from someone who does not have any profile.  For instance I see a guy who has results in his local casino where I might know some of the players there and strike up a conversation and make him feel more at ease and like I'm his friend.

I remember playing in the European open in the Vic Oct 2010 and Matt Jarvis was on my table with Joseph Cheung. There was a couple of people hanging around and Matt was holding court telling everyone that he really had a great chance in November. Joseph nearly covered everyone when spitting his tea out when I asked him "before he got lucky in the wsop this summer, was he just dicking about in $500 comps prior to this ". Just breaks the ice don't it.


I ain't got the tackle or enough confidence for the above Titty but will have a word with Mrs H and see if we can hook you up for a 30 second team viewer session if that's your bag

You have learned nothing .

Nice namedrops tho.

[atdc21]

Hi again Jason,
I hadnt read neils post on 'greening up', but have now.
Dont want to derail this thread too much about it, but like i said, it suits some people, it doesnt others.
I always find it a good idea myself, and prob most people with smaller punting bankrolls tend to be the 'greeners' the bigger balla bettors let their bets ride, its their nature.
I was backing/laying horse on a site before betfair came into existence and did have quite a lot of experience in it and for me and what betting was to me did ok. I dont know what his point about people who backed van gerwin at 80 then layed off at 20 is about regarding saying would they lay him at 20s if they hadnt backed him at 80s, pretty obv they wouldnt. You can get into to massive + EV situations if you can get a couple of big odds bets in the same event in that then tumble, like i say everyone has their own way of doing it dependant on their situation, anyway as you were back to the important poker stuff. \