Advice Welcome

[mondatoo]

20/1 is a pretty good guide for the implied odds you need to make set mining profitable. Personally I go as low as 12/1 but when it's 22 you have to account for flopping a set and doing your stack.

Actual odds are way lower. Think it's somewhere around 8/1.

Yeah I meant implied not actual, will blame it on fact I was busy grinding whilst I posted, wanted to get in there 1st with my incred pha analysis, then Alex ripped it all apart.

[chelseaboy]

I appreciate all the advice and hopefully it will help me improve my game and keep this winning run going

[Honeybadger]

Odds of flopping a set are about 7.5 to 1.

Implied odds means something totally different. It means the amount of money you can expect to make on average after you hit your hand. There is no set formula for calculating the necessary implied odds you need in order to make set-mining profitable. It is a judgement call every time. The traditional rule of thumb is that there should be around 20 times the amount you have to call preflop remaining in an opponent's stack in order for it to be profitable to set mine. This is not the same as saying your implied odds are 20 to 1 though! Just because he has 20x remaining in his stack it does not mean you are guaranteed to win this 20x postflop every time you flop a set. Sometimes you will flop a set and still lose. Other times you will flop a set and fail to get much action. That is why we usually require around 20x remaining in effective stacks... because we are only going to get a percentage of this on average.

If you somehow know someone has AA and will never fold on the flop then you could profitably call a preflop bet even if there was only around 9 times the bet left in effective stacks (note not 7.5 times, since sometimes you will flop a set and his AA will outdraw you on turn or river). And in a multiway pot you don't need effective stacks to be 20x the preflop bet since you are more likely to win one of these stacks so you likely have your implied odds. Also, if you are ever able to either get your pocket pair to showdown and win unimproved, or bluff a better hand out of the pot postflop, then you don't need as much remaining in effective stacks either since your postflop equity is increased.

That general rule about needing 20x is nothing more than a basic rule of thumb, and it does not always apply anyway. For example, it is usually a leak to call a 3x BTN open (from a competent player) from the SB with 22 even if the BTN has a 100BB stack. The reason for this is that the BTN's range is so wide that he will rarely pay you off when you do hit a set, and yet whenever you don't hit a set you will pretty much always lose the pot through getting bluffed off at some point. Against a complete calling station who will pay you off when you flop a set then it would often be profitable to set mine. Or against a really passive opponent who will sometimes let you get 22 to showdown it would also sometimes be profitable.

[MC]

I hope you didn't write all that for Monda's benefit because he already knew all that, he was just being a clown.

[Honeybadger]

I was obviously writing it for OP's benefit.

[MC]

I was obviously writing it for OP's benefit.

Fair enough then

A very good explanation as always...

[chelseaboy]

Very good explanation!!

Thanks

[cambridgealex]

Think Monda needed it tbf

[tikay]

Think Monda needed it tbf

Please!

It is Monta, not Monda.

[tron1ft8]

i like to occasionally 3 bet the 1st hand! people will call far too wide and you have position and can take away a bigger pot on a lot of flop, your continuation bet should be about 1/3 of the pot imo on a lot of flops. and play it from there just another line to consider maybe.

[JasiuZ]

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