Very interesting hand

[pleno1]

http://weaktight.com/5269462

HERO is imfromsweden, villain is pleno1.

Thoughts on my range on the river and how you would see it from villains perspective, calling ranges, bottom of my ranges, bluffs yada yads.

Discuss

[Honeybadger]

I think checking back some flush draws on this texture of flop is a very good play some of the time. This is the sort of flop that you would be expected to check back with a good chunk of your zero-equity air, since it hits his range harder than yours. So this protects your check back range somewhat. It is also ultra tricksy, and you deserve a medal when you check back a FD and then the flush hits on the turn.

[pleno1]

His river bet is 2xpot ish fwiw

[pleno1]

More info..

He has seen me check back ak on kq2 and 33 on 936

Have also checked back a bunch of guthsots on the flop vs him too as well as some middling cards. So my range here ott is anything but cPped

[outragous76]

Given his overbet of pot you can have atc to jam, he needs one end and not the other of his polarised range to call

If he makes the bet without a Polarised range he needs to know his villain really well to call him off

[SuuPRlim]

with the probable exception of JJ I think he can have all the boats and ofc quads, so I dont think his river vbets are THAT thin - don't get me wrong I'm sure he'll get to the rivver here and bet $80 with hands that are worse than 76 or the NF as a value bet - but I don't think he'll be going razor thin with something like or - if he is then it's defo as a sick way to induce because those two hands are prolly winning more frequently when shipped on than called following the river overbet (vs you )

Main point being that I don't think you can really ship that wide for value with the info you've given us currently.

This being said my gut instinct about the hand from the HH is that he's bluffed the river with Ah 9/T and then called the all in or something mental lol

[Honeybadger]

Given his overbet of pot you can have atc to jam, he needs one end and not the other of his polarised range to call

The second part of this sentence is correct. However, the first part is an incorrect logical jump. This is pretty much the worst possible strategy to use against a polarised range.

[outragous76]

Given his overbet of pot you can have atc to jam, he needs one end and not the other of his polarised range to call

The second part of this sentence is correct. However, the first part is an incorrect logical jump. This is pretty much the worst possible strategy to use against a polarised range.

Hmmm not sure

The problem with this hand (as shown) is that it forms part of a HU match which by its very deinition has a dynamic, which we are not made aware of. Therefore we are looking at a hand in a vaccumm which will never be seen that way by players as played.

In terms of the hand so little happens tghat defining accurate ranges is fairly tough.

My "atc" comment clearly (or perhaps not) refers to the ATC that Pleno can get to the river with as played (bare suited Ah 5x for example in his non made hands). That said given he is IP Pleno 1 can just be floating the turn in hope of a nice river (which we can argue he got).

But given that you agree Mr Sweden can only call with the top of his polarised range, surely Pleno1 can get in his entire range and only expect to be called by the bojangles?

[outragous76]

I should add,......... and therefore before he jams should satisfy himself as to how likely Mr Sewden is to have the Bojangles as played and with any given history

[SuuPRlim]

if pleno is to jam his entire range OTR then there is an argument for $80/call being marginally better than chk/fold - when its kinda funny how different the two options are lol

[Honeybadger]

Obviously with the right reads/dynamic any exploitative move can be justified. But villain's nuts/air ratio must be completely out of line for jamming your entire river range to be profitable. If villain's range is only a little out of line then you are actually 'correcting' this error for him by allowing him to win additional money with the nutted part of his range.

[outragous76]

There are 2 problems with assigning ranges in this hand thou

1. The lack of flop action
2. The runner runner pair makes a huge difference than to river pairing flop


I think we have to ask what made hands (incl nfd) does mr Sweden c/r on flop and  does he ever donk? This can help narrow his range markedly.

Then, would he c/r turn with sets and 2pr (2pr hands to specifically include a 6)

If we can give any meaningful answers to the above then we are almost there.

The only thing we cannot answer is whether he would turn a (non fh) made hand into a bluff then call it off

[Honeybadger]

Yes it is a confusing/interesting hand, and ranges seem very wooly.

But I was just commenting on your suggestion that if his range is polarised then it is a good play to jam our entire range. This is completely wrong and illogical. For example, why would we ever want to jam a bluff catcher against a polarised range? And of course, if we believe he is polarised then a ton of our range has become a bluff catcher.

[outragous76]

Yes it is a confusing/interesting hand, and ranges seem very wooly.

But I was just commenting on your suggestion that if his range is polarised then it is a good play to jam our entire range. This is completely wrong and illogical. For example, why would we ever want to jam a bluff catcher against a polarised range? And of course, if we believe he is polarised then a ton of our range has become a bluff catcher.

But what if he turned a made hand into a bluff (78, straight, bad flush) we are far better jamming than bluff catching with Ah 5x. Even moreso if we have a hand with blockers to his nutted range.

Surely he can only call if he is full (although Im guessing he calls marginally given pleno posted the hand). But let's say pleno holds a 6 here, it basically means mr Sweden can only call JJ 77 and 88 and we have to question the preflop action at that point in considering JJ, and is he c/r turn ?

[outragous76]

Having read that back, I could have just made your point for you with the "holding a 6" hand, not sure, just woke up ;0p