Tips by Tighty

[TightEnd]

£237.24 profit on £628.29 punted

ROI 37.8%

10 winners from 25

[TightEnd]

Just had a small play on Pakistan in the second test in Cape Town at 9/2

Pak recovered from 30-4 to 338 all out having been put in

The pitch is about a day ahead of schedule in terms of wear, brown, dry and sun beating down

SA having failed to capitalise on 30-4 probably have to bat last against Saeed Ajmal

9/2 looks too big to me, £10 on B365

[TightEnd]

and Pakistan drop Smith on 0 in the slips

lol

[TightEnd]

105-4

Pakistan into 13/10 joint favourite, Ajmal all 4 wickets so far and him to bowl last on a dry one

chances chances if Pakistan can get a first innings lead, was certainly interesting at 9/2


Meanwhile, I played Trump into form in the snooker....

[TightEnd]

I'm talking to myself

109-5

Pakistan go odds-on

If only someone had invented somewhere I could back to lay.

[typhoon13]

I'm talking to myself

109-5

Pakistan go odds-on

If only someone had invented somewhere I could back to lay.

Typical, i have missed this.

Good Luck Sir

[TightEnd]

Interesting in Cape Town

SA recovered from 139/6 to 326 all out

Pak have a small first innings lead, and have the best spinner possible bowling last

Yet SA are 8/11, Pak 5/2

Assumes Pakistan won't bat well, which is understandable given recent performances

If they can set them 250+ though, Pakistan are great value at 5/2

[pokerfan]

Ouch.

[TightEnd]

Pakistan lost both openers for 0 but recovered to 100 for 3, 112 ahead

All to play for with two days to go. The longer Pakistan can bat, the worse the pitch for Ajaml to bowl on

Pakistan into 2-1. SA odds on. Pakistan still a sporting punt, as they have been for most of the three days. Consistently under-estimated, I hope


Elsewhere I contemplated two bets today. Watford at Brum at 6-4 and got talked out of it, nits thread tenner apart. 2-0 up at half time

Quins/Leicester overs on the points. starts 5pm. Talked out of that too

Lesson is probably just to put the bet on, rather than canvas!

[TightEnd]

46 points at the Stoop

Next time, the bets are going on!

[Tal]

Well as long as everyone else got on, right?

[TightEnd]

Pak lose 6 for 22, having got into a position to put real pressure on last night

SA 182 to win

Probably sunk, but a couple of quick wickets and then Ajmal might make it tense

[TightEnd]

The 3rd ODI takes place in Auckland overnight our time

This was the ground on which we achieved a sixes overs bet after one innings a fortnight ago, if everyone remembers. The quote was set at 13, it made up 23, in T20

It's at Eden Park, a dual purpose rugby/cricket round with very short straight boundaries

In the two ODIs in the series so far

1. Hamilton 55 boundaries, 46 fours, 9 sixes. NZ chased and won

2 Napier 54 boundaries 45 fours 9 sixes, Eng chased and won

Auckland is a drop in pitch, quick and true, in favour of batsmen


It is tempting to go overs on sixes. The line is set at 12.5. However the composition of the teams is markedly different to the T20 line ups

For NZ, Guptill is injured and really only B McCullum is a big six hitter

For England Hales, Lumb, Luke Wright are gone and in come Cook, Trott, Root with Bell in the top 4

So for England the top 4 are accumulators, and not "launch it" guys. They come with Morgan and Buttler at 5 and 6

So, I am but reluctant to go for the sixes


However, there represents a real opportunity on the Boundaries market, because

William Hill go 52.5 each of two under/over at 5/6

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-england/odi-series/new-zealand-v-england-%5B3rd-odi%5D/total-boundaries

and Cook, Trott, Root etc should be in their element in Auckland, without us having to watch them nurdle around while we want sixes


52.5 has been beaten on both games so far, both on bigger grounds. Albeit Napier was very short square rather than straight

This wicket is also true

The straight dimensions of this ground mean, as we saw in the T20, that you can mishit boundaries


After I researched, I came up with a quote in my head before I looked at the market. I had 60 in mind for a boundary total

I would like to recommend a chunky bet on the overs 5/6 at 52.5


Risks?

NZ are probably the more fragile batting team, especially at 1-3. If they bat first, and Anderson/Finn get among them then we might get a lower first innings total than we need (first two games 258 and 270)

That's a chance worth taking



from TfT. £40 here 5/6 W Hill

Also £20 France 3-1 v England RU tomorrow Sp Bet , from Tft

[typhoon13]

On GL us

[TightEnd]

Small wagers for tonight

£5 draw Lcfc v Blackburn 14-5

£5 Walsall at Carlisle 21/10

£10 AFC W  home to Plymouth 13/10

all B365