Tips by Tighty

[redsimon]

Travelling again today, so no time to wait for Betting Emp and the rest

Profit and then some from yesterday reinvested into

Rocky River (nap, lol) £20 at 11/4 2.30 Aintree

Cue Card £10 e/w 7-1 3.05 Aintree  e/w is only first 2, but I have in my mind CC will really stretch them, try and test SS's stamina and will take him to win without Sprinter Sacre as the e/w portion


Two outsiders

£5 e/w both of

- Renard 40-1 in the Topham. Down the weights a lot, like Venetia Williams horses at high prices at big festivals (learnt that from Channing)
- Uxizandre 16-1 in the At Fishers Cross race. Can't have At Fishers Cross at the price, looked for alternatives, saw this and thought it was over-priced on its improving record this season

You're doomed on the first two tips as I have them as my selections in the tipping comp.

[TightEnd]

Ha!

Too late. We can form an East Midlands axis of funk.

[TightEnd]

note -£32.50 today for next figures

[TightEnd]

Brighton £20 6/4 v LCFC tomorrow as per TfT

[mondatoo]

Brighton £20 6/4 v LCFC tomorrow as per TfT

How much would you need to wager before you'd be wanting Leicester to lose ?

[TightEnd]

Brighton £20 6/4 v LCFC tomorrow as per TfT

How much would you need to wager before you'd be wanting Leicester to lose ?

Seperate parts of the brain

the betting should be completely devoid of emotion, I think. What do I think is the right price or not?

I think so many people (not on here, but I see it in a lot of football fans) can't divorce the emotion from the logic, and do their dough as a result

When I used to go to every game for years and years I would visit the little Ladbrokes kiosk in my section of the ground at Filbert Street and look at the prices on the coupon. Almost irrespective of who we were playing the prices would reflect a bias towards Leicester (the local coupons would reflect where they knew the weight of money was going), and routinely I'd be backing the other side in FGS markets etc at prices  I considered value while all around me Leicester Lemmings were plunging onto our striker at 4-1 to score first. At its height, when O'Neill left and Taylor came in and we were going down from about February we had coupons with Akinbiyi 5-1/6-1 to score first at home to Premiership sides. Akinbiyi! I'd perm 3 or 4 from the opposition and went on a great run that season of scooping the "value".

I'd want Leicester to win whatever I had on the other side, is the simple tldr answer, but (on my small scale) done ok over the years at ignoring emotion and treating the betting as seperate from my preferred outcome as a supporter

[TightEnd]

I was trading stocks for about 15 years, and I think this type of stuff, dispassionate but research and logic led, comes from that

When markets were fast moving, there was no point getting emotional and backing what you might have actually wanted politically, economically etc

Just do the analysis, let the short term take care of itself and try to spot mispricings

Obviously I am not a pro punter and never will be, though if I had my time again I would have done a few things differently (would have loved to have been a sports journalists, sports commentator, sports trader etc etc) but Its the same type of emotional state when it comes to backing against teams I support

[mondatoo]

Brighton £20 6/4 v LCFC tomorrow as per TfT

How much would you need to wager before you'd be wanting Leicester to lose ?

Seperate parts of the brain

the betting should be completely devoid of emotion, I think. What do I think is the right price or not?

I think so many people (not on here, but I see it in a lot of football fans) can't divorce the emotion from the logic, and do their dough as a result

When I used to go to every game for years and years I would visit the little Ladbrokes kiosk in my section of the ground at Filbert Street and look at the prices on the coupon. Almost irrespective of who we were playing the prices would reflect a bias towards Leicester (the local coupons would reflect where they knew the weight of money was going), and routinely I'd be backing the other side in FGS markets etc at prices  I considered value while all around me Leicester Lemmings were plunging onto our striker at 4-1 to score first. At its height, when O'Neill left and Taylor came in and we were going down from about February we had coupons with Akinbiyi 5-1/6-1 to score first at home to Premiership sides. Akinbiyi! I'd perm 3 or 4 from the opposition and went on a great run that season of scooping the "value".

I'd want Leicester to win whatever I had on the other side, is the simple tldr answer, but (on my small scale) done ok over the years at ignoring emotion and treating the betting as seperate from my preferred outcome as a supporter

I'm happy to advise betting on/against Newcastle and think I can do so without letting emotions cloud my judgement but would never do it myself. I actually started a post on TFT yday about betting on Benfica versus us but by the time I was done the price had gone

I once had a scorecast bet on Newcastle winning 3-2, we were winning 3-1 with 10 minutes to go so naturally, imo, I found myself wanting the other team to score, just felt so wrong though and spoiled the game for me in a way.

Think it would be pretty tough for anyone to put there net on the opposition and not want there team to lose.

[TightEnd]

yeah I am never betting in large sums anyway. Genuinely a £50 max punter these days, usually less, which this thread reflects. Never be self employed in the recreational poker end of the market!

I accept if I had thousands against my side, the mental conflicts would be a lot tougher

[TightEnd]

Updating post losses

Profit £194.62 on £1177.75

ROI 16.5%


Still live

Mumbai
Robertson
Trump
UKIP 2nd in South Shields
Middlesex e/w


Added £5 e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 at 20-1 1/5 top 3

Forgot to add Warburton £10 11/4 Lions Captain (nb check), which is a swingy market to say the least

[TightEnd]

Burden v Harold £20 at 11/10 as per Tft, World Snooker Qualifying

Basle o1.5 tonight £30 Stan James 11/8 as per tft

£5 ew each of

all 5 places

Hanson, Peter 75/1
Johnson, Zach 125/1
Dufner, Jason 70/1
Garrigus, Rob 200/1

in the Masters

[TightEnd]

Basle o1.5 tonight £30 Stan James 11/8 as per tft

Weighed in.

[tikay]

Basle o1.5 tonight £30 Stan James 11/8 as per tft

Weighed in.

Marv........

[TightEnd]

Updating post Basle and Burden beating Harold 10-9 tonight

Profit £257.87 on £1227.75

ROI 21%

Still live

Mumbai
Robertson
Trump
UKIP 2nd in South Shields
Middlesex e/w
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2
Warburton  Lions Captain
Four Masters bets, of which only one sweat at this stage, Johnson at 125-1 e/w

[Marky147]

Nice one Rich, I didn't even know he was still playing!