Tips by Tighty

[TightEnd]

The trend for running backs to be drafted in the first round is falling, only 9 have been selected in the first two rounds in the last 4 years. A position where you can get great value lower down the draft

That said I would not be surprised to see the St Louis Rams try to trade down from 22 to 30-35 to draft Lacy as a replacement for Stephen Jackson

Touch and go, to my mind

If I had to guess I'd say just inside the first round, rather than just outside..but don't think 8/11 is a 1/2 shot in reality...

[TightEnd]

@Sigmund Bloom, a better than most draft analyst

I have 9 sure-fire top 12 picks: OT Fisher-Joeckel-LJohnson--DT Lotulelei-Floyd--DE Jordan-Ansah-Mingo--CB Milliner - who are the other 3?

Candidates include Geno/Nassib/Barkley - Austin - Warmack/Cooper - Fluker - Vaccaro - Eifert - Richardson - Rhodes/Hayden - Watson


That's the three QBs and the TE in the candidates list.....

could go to bed then :-)

[TightEnd]

Sigmund Bloom

Although top 10 has its uncertainty, the bottom 10 will be where the real drama happens tonight as teams try to leapfrog each other for QBs

still evens over 2 PP, though the 11/8 over 1.5 was the price

[redarmi]

Sigmund Bloom

Although top 10 has its uncertainty, the bottom 10 will be where the real drama happens tonight as teams try to leapfrog each other for QBs

still evens over 2 PP, though the 11/8 over 1.5 was the price

You missed, to my mind the biggest rick of all, one firm (ahem) was 2/5 over 1 QB.  Should have been 1/50......we closed it at 1/20 after we explained to the compiler the flaw in his thinking!!!!

[TightEnd]

Oooops. I just didn't have the time to look at everything, particularly US markets.

Hope you have a successful night of it.

[Tal]

If the same happens this year as happened last year, where the first pick is made and then the next few are traded, what difference do you think that will make to your bets?

[TightEnd]

TightEnd, no difference, Tyler Eifertis going in first 20 picks

QB, probably no difference. Relying on trades at the back end of the round there

(Buffalo want Ryan Nassib badly, so the runes say)

WR, a bit more vulnerable, as the type of players being traded up for are pass rushers, linemen etc, and this pushes more receivers to more marginal first round status as the already good teams at the back end who can pick them as skill position "luxuries" will be higher up the draft....

I love the trades, like a sporting game of "risk" olr the back end of a monopoly game...working out who is risking what for what....

[Tal]

If only they didn't put it on in the middle of the night. It's almost like they don't care I have work in the morning.

Thanks for the answer, as ever, though.

[TheDazzler]

starts 1am tonight

the tightend bet at 1/3 is the biggest certainty on this board ever

the qb is growing in confidence. all the suggestions are that there are 3-4 teams looking at trading back into the back end of the first round for a qb. one of the reasons for this is under the new cba, 1st round rookie contracts are 5 yrs, 2nd round 4...so if you get a qb there you have an extra year (qbs take time to develop, more than many other positions) of him under contract before the big deal or free agency

so nassib and barkley could go picks 26-32 to cleveland, buffalo, jets etc if they can find a trading partner

the wr bet is as priced, more 50-50%. a bit less likely if people are trading to get qbs

if we don't get 2 out of 3 up here I give up (until tomorrow)

As regards above bolded 'biggest certainty ever', can I ask how much, % wise, of your gambling roll you're putting on these bets.
I've put on ~E200, which is about 20% of my sports betting roll. 10% (E100) on the 1/3 shot, 5% (E50) each on the other two bets.
Are you in the same ballpark, % wise?

[TightEnd]

i'm only small fry :-)

think I have a combined £90 on the three bets, over half of that on a 1/3 shot.

Tony Bloom I am not.

here we go anyway.....

Wide Reciever is the 50-50% one here, could be 3, could be 4.....

[The Camel]

Sigmund Bloom

Although top 10 has its uncertainty, the bottom 10 will be where the real drama happens tonight as teams try to leapfrog each other for QBs

still evens over 2 PP, though the 11/8 over 1.5 was the price

You missed, to my mind the biggest rick of all, one firm (ahem) was 2/5 over 1 QB.  Should have been 1/50......we closed it at 1/20 after we explained to the compiler the flaw in his thinking!!!!

I would definitely bet 0 QBs in the first round at 50/1

The teams that need QBs all have high draft picks, but no QBs in this class deserve to be a top 10 pick.

One or two will probably go, but 50/1 is a big price :-)

[TightEnd]

Eric Fisher OT number 1 pick

He was so lowly ranked coming out of High school, that when he went for a University visit, the football coach said

"thanks for coming, enjoy your visit. I am off to play golf"

Luke Joeckel next to Jacksonville

then the fun starts. Oakland raiders, just as likely to pick a punter as anything else.....

[TightEnd]

Because there is no state income tax in Florida, Joeckel will earn more net than the top pick will despite the contract slot being worth $2m a year less

Pressure on the Lions now, in need of a tackle and tackles have gone 1,2, might have to trade up

tricky guess for Oakland at 3. Mingo? Jordan? Floyd? Or trade it out.....

(amateur tv draft analysis by myself, to myself....!)

[TightEnd]

Trade...........

Miami for Lane Johnson I guess?

[Newportlad]

Because there is no state income tax in Florida, Joeckel will earn more net than the top pick will despite the contract slot being worth $2m a year less

Pressure on the Lions now, in need of a tackle and tackles have gone 1,2, might have to trade up

tricky guess for Oakland at 3. Mingo? Jordan? Floyd? Or trade it out.....

(amateur tv draft analysis by myself, to myself....!)

Raiders trade 3rd pick to Miami, who will almost certainly sign Lane Johnson