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Author Topic: Super League 2013  (Read 46192 times)
kinboshi
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« on: December 14, 2012, 01:57:36 AM »

Wigan are currently 11/4 with William Hill to finish top in the regular season. Again I see it being a two-horse race for the top spot (three if you include stains).

The key area is the half-backs, and whether they'll gel and if the side will be weaker, and by how much, with the departure of Leuluai and Finch. I'm more optimistic than most about Green joining the club and I think he adds a different dimension to what Wigan had previously in terms of how he plays and what he offers.

Anyone else think that's a good value for a bet, or would everyone be lumping on Warrington at 9/4?

Betting on the Grand Final winner is a bit of a lottery really, or can anyone see decent odds for a bet that can be laid off near the end of the regular season?
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The Camel
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« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2012, 02:14:25 AM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

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« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2012, 02:15:12 AM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!
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The Camel
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« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2012, 02:34:32 AM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
buzzharvey22
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« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2012, 02:46:28 AM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.

not much different to any other sport then
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kinboshi
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« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2012, 03:08:50 AM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.

There is a salary cap, and that's part of the problem! League struggles to attract any talent from union whilst battling to stop the best talent moving the other way. The NRL has a more attractive offering than over here, but the game's far bigger over there. The suits in charge at Red Hall are doing their level best to destroy a very good product in Super League.


The play off system here is a farce. Teams aren't rewarded for consistency throughout the season and instead the focus is on winning the grand final. So mediocrity is rewarded as long as the side can play well in a handful of matches at the end of the season (as Leeds have shown to be adept at).

All that aside, I still think 11/4 is good value for Wigan to finish the regular season at the top of the table.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2012, 03:10:41 AM by kinboshi » Logged

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The Camel
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« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2012, 04:36:39 AM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.

not much different to any other sport then

The Rugby League version of Bradford City could not beat the Rugby League version of Arsenal.

Absolutely impossible.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
kinboshi
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« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2012, 09:39:22 AM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.

not much different to any other sport then

The Rugby League version of Bradford City could not beat the Rugby League version of Arsenal.

Absolutely impossible.

Last season the rugby league equivalent of QPR beat the rugby league equivalent of Man U.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-league/17264196
« Last Edit: December 14, 2012, 09:40:57 AM by kinboshi » Logged

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kinboshi
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« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2012, 09:44:14 AM »

There was also this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-league/17677581

Not sure if that's Bradford beating Arsenal equivalent or not.

As for it being vastly different to football, there are only three sides in the Premier league who are pretty much guaranteed a top four spot, with a group of others fighting it out for the fourth. That's hardly a balanced competition, and could do with a salary cap...
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Acidmouse
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« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2012, 11:24:17 AM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.

I know your partially trolling so I wont go OTT in my response but this is yet again another comment that has very little substance. Its bordering on the silly.

Over the past 3-4 seasons the top teams have been losing more and more matches and coming back to the rest of the pack. Salary cap means nurturing home talent and keeping them is key to a long term successful team. 3rd in the league lost a 3rd of their games last season, 4th and 5th last almost half! the top two lost over a quarter of their games. Each of the top teams not only lost to so called other bigger teams but the lower ones. Betting on huge underdogs for individual games proved very profitable as people are yet to catch on the 'gap' just is not a great as it once was. With the playoffs it means the actual league title is not hugely important and this has created a closer league in terms of difference in points between alot of teams.

The fact that League does not need to introduce "bonus points" to make the table cram up like union does says alot :~)
« Last Edit: December 14, 2012, 11:46:24 AM by Acidmouse » Logged
The Camel
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« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2012, 01:04:44 PM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.

I know your partially trolling so I wont go OTT in my response but this is yet again another comment that has very little substance. Its bordering on the silly.

Over the past 3-4 seasons the top teams have been losing more and more matches and coming back to the rest of the pack. Salary cap means nurturing home talent and keeping them is key to a long term successful team. 3rd in the league lost a 3rd of their games last season, 4th and 5th last almost half! the top two lost over a quarter of their games. Each of the top teams not only lost to so called other bigger teams but the lower ones. Betting on huge underdogs for individual games proved very profitable as people are yet to catch on the 'gap' just is not a great as it once was. With the playoffs it means the actual league title is not hugely important and this has created a closer league in terms of difference in points between alot of teams.

The fact that League does not need to introduce "bonus points" to make the table cram up like union does says alot :~)

You're right, I was drunk and trolling.

Two evenly matched teams do give a good spectacle.

Those examples given by kin excepted, there are too many mismatches though (seems like "weakened teams" was the reason there?)

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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
kinboshi
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« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2012, 01:12:17 PM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.

I know your partially trolling so I wont go OTT in my response but this is yet again another comment that has very little substance. Its bordering on the silly.

Over the past 3-4 seasons the top teams have been losing more and more matches and coming back to the rest of the pack. Salary cap means nurturing home talent and keeping them is key to a long term successful team. 3rd in the league lost a 3rd of their games last season, 4th and 5th last almost half! the top two lost over a quarter of their games. Each of the top teams not only lost to so called other bigger teams but the lower ones. Betting on huge underdogs for individual games proved very profitable as people are yet to catch on the 'gap' just is not a great as it once was. With the playoffs it means the actual league title is not hugely important and this has created a closer league in terms of difference in points between alot of teams.

The fact that League does not need to introduce "bonus points" to make the table cram up like union does says alot :~)

You're right, I was drunk and trolling.

Two evenly matched teams do give a good spectacle.

Those examples given by kin excepted, there are too many mismatches though (seems like "weakened teams" was the reason there?)



As Acid pointed out, there were a lot of 'shock' results last season - as the gap between teams isn't as massive as it was (due to salary cap and other rules).  That game against Widnes did have Wigan fielding a weakened side, but Wigan were winning 36-18 before Widnes came back to win 37-36.

Instead of there being one or two teams out on their own, any of the top 8 can beat any of the other top 8 on their day, and the teams below that can also pull out surprises throughout the season.  Far more 'upsets' in Super League than in the Premier League I'd imagine (be good to see the stats).

Anyway, that bet on Wigan at 11/4...?
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The Camel
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« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2012, 01:15:56 PM »

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

if you think league is boring union must put you in a coma!

Rugby League: it's better than Rugby Union.

Not exactly a great advert!

To be honest, i don't hate League really, just far too many mismatches in the regular season.

Salary cap/drafting or something is needed to even the playing field.

I know your partially trolling so I wont go OTT in my response but this is yet again another comment that has very little substance. Its bordering on the silly.

Over the past 3-4 seasons the top teams have been losing more and more matches and coming back to the rest of the pack. Salary cap means nurturing home talent and keeping them is key to a long term successful team. 3rd in the league lost a 3rd of their games last season, 4th and 5th last almost half! the top two lost over a quarter of their games. Each of the top teams not only lost to so called other bigger teams but the lower ones. Betting on huge underdogs for individual games proved very profitable as people are yet to catch on the 'gap' just is not a great as it once was. With the playoffs it means the actual league title is not hugely important and this has created a closer league in terms of difference in points between alot of teams.

The fact that League does not need to introduce "bonus points" to make the table cram up like union does says alot :~)

You're right, I was drunk and trolling.

Two evenly matched teams do give a good spectacle.

Those examples given by kin excepted, there are too many mismatches though (seems like "weakened teams" was the reason there?)



As Acid pointed out, there were a lot of 'shock' results last season - as the gap between teams isn't as massive as it was (due to salary cap and other rules).  That game against Widnes did have Wigan fielding a weakened side, but Wigan were winning 36-18 before Widnes came back to win 37-36.

Instead of there being one or two teams out on their own, any of the top 8 can beat any of the other top 8 on their day, and the teams below that can also pull out surprises throughout the season.  Far more 'upsets' in Super League than in the Premier League I'd imagine (be good to see the stats).

Anyway, that bet on Wigan at 11/4...?

Yeah, I'm probably living in the past.

I used to price up super League at Blue Squirrel.

I just remember Wigan and St Helens being 40 point favourites for every game except when they played each other!
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
kinboshi
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« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2012, 01:20:30 PM »

In the 80s and 90s it definitely was a case of one team massively dominating (Wigan and then Saints), and the league have done a lot to level the playing field - unfortunately, it's keeping all the teams at a lower level, with the drain to union and the NFL. The clubs are finding it very difficult to attract or keep the best players.
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« Reply #14 on: December 14, 2012, 01:28:06 PM »

there is a salary cap in Union, though a club like Saracens is notorious for circumventing it via sponsor's businesses employing players on a part time basis etc

One of the things I found was it was possible for a superior team in RL to run up the score on a markedly inferior team as when the superior team scores a try, they receive the kick off and can go again....

As the RL boys imply though the gap between top and bottom in the RU Premiership is bigger than ever, whereas I suspect (from a lower base of knowledge) that its narrower in RL these days as a lot of talent drain has gone from the top end of RL
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