Yuck

[Doobs]

I am in 3rd position, this is the stars million final table.  Guaranteed $31k, $231k for the win

Arnon Shraga had been at my table a few times since maybe 3 tables out and is the most aggro of the other players at the table.  Stats are VPIP 29, PFR 27,  aggression 1.4, 3 bet 10.

PokerStars Hand #91229089797: Tournament #661020010, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XL (250000/500000) - 2012/12/24 6:39:45 WET [2012/12/24 1:39:45 ET]
Table '661020010 35' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: arnon shraga (17474501 in chips)
Seat 3: slyfox151 (4778576 in chips)
Seat 4: bullstopper (15272095 in chips)
Seat 5: yadio (3173065 in chips)
Seat 7: Krafty_lt (17732700 in chips)
Seat 8: Barbara52out (7313837 in chips)
Seat 9: rany01 (11435226 in chips)
arnon shraga: posts the ante 50000
slyfox151: posts the ante 50000
bullstopper: posts the ante 50000
yadio: posts the ante 50000
Krafty_lt: posts the ante 50000
Barbara52out: posts the ante 50000
rany01: posts the ante 50000
slyfox151: posts small blind 250000
bullstopper: posts big blind 500000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bullstopper [ Ah]
yadio: folds
Krafty_lt: folds
Barbara52out: folds
rany01: raises 500000 to 1000000
arnon shraga: raises 16424501 to 17424501 and is all-in
slyfox151: folds
bullstopper: ?

[George2Loose]

Gl

[outragous76]

2 shorter stacks, 2 similar stacks 2of whom are in the hand

Guess it depends how much laddering means to you

Never folding personally

[tight4better]

Gl

[MC]

Yeah, the sub 10bb stacks make it a bit sucky, but not folding.

[pleno1]

wow, hope you won!

glgllgl

[pleno1]

just read blog.

ul

i guess you can afford 50p so I'll let you reveal the results.

[Doobs]

just read blog.

ul

i guess you can afford 50p so I'll let you reveal the results.

The hand is genuine, it is clearly the biggest decision I have ever had and felt really nasty at the time.  I had an equally nasty one at the final table of the Sunday supersonic a month ago that I couldn't post because of the 50p rule.

I was thinking at the time that if I could get to 4 handed, I could deal at something close to £100k which is something I'd be struggling to turn down.* Then this happened.  Glad others would take the same route, it is hard to think straight when you have been up 24 hours and that much is at stake.

I was sat there thinking it was so unlikely that he would shove so big with aces, kings or queens in this spot.  He probably should, of course, but a lot of people just can't bring themselves to do it. 

Not going to get down on the biggest equity beat I have ever had., I managed a JJ>QQ and a ATs > QQ when I was short and there were two tables.

I might come back and do a proper calculator on it in a week or so to see if the call is right.  If anybody else wants to do one for me i would appreciate it.  Am heading off for Christmas in a couple of hours.

Cheers

* as it was they did try and deal 4 handed, but one of them was a complete clown around it, or didn't get ICM, and it fell through.  Unfortunately there was no karma this time.

[doubleup]

Guess it depends how much laddering means to you

was actually thinking about this kind of thing yesterday.  In stars bigger comps in the late stages there is quite a jump in payouts from say 1 to 5 and 6-12 (eg 5th payout is 5.5 times 9th).  My theory (which might be bollox) is that if you have an average stack with say 10 left it is worth flipping to get to what will be an average when there are five left and then just play to maintain your stack/pressure ladderers.

Having said that it doesn't really apply to OP as he has an above average stack anyway, almost average for 5 left - so if gambling is the best strategy for an average/below average stack, does it mean that being ultra conservative (vs risk of going broke) is best for him?

[doubleup]

hmmm it actually seems like a fold

$eq in terms of price pool% is about 8.5% and goes up to about 11.5% if hero wins the flip (and original raiser folds).  Obv because first prize is only 15% or so.  

I think the best possible range for villain would be AQ TT,99 and hero is 60/40 fav, so he needs better than that ie precisely Ax.

I used http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx - presumably it works ok.

[pleno1]

guss you should include a10 too

[TL900]

i really dont think this is a simple 'gl'

he has a TON of pairs imo, way more then AQ/AJ type hands.

Im not sure what I do/what is best, but I dont think its a simple 'gl'

[titaniumbean]

seems like with all these finals you can afford 50p a few times over.


Glad YOU FT'ed though and not someone I don't like lol.

[George2Loose]

i really dont think this is a simple 'gl'

he has a TON of pairs imo, way more then AQ/AJ type hands.

Im not sure what I do/what is best, but I dont think its a simple 'gl'

You're right.

GOOD LUCK!!!

[Doobs]

 I put his range as AJs+, AQ+, and maybe 88 to JJ.  I think you can add in half QQ combinations and maybe a quarter of AA and KKs.  As I indicated, I don't think it as likely he shoved those hands.  He was the best of the other players at the table, but I had probably sat with him for an hour or two, so had some feel for his play.

I was reasonably sure I was favourite vs his range.  What I don't know is if it is an ICM disaster vs his range with the big pay leaps.  Pleno has already indicated that he had AT off, but I don't think I should let that influence me.  I'd be more interested in whether I made the right decision based on the range I put him on, rather than his actual range.  It feels dishonest to make my decision look better by expanding his range, if that makes sense.

As an aside the original raiser was a rock and was playing less than 10% of hands over 100 or so hands (this is a guess as I don't have access to my PC).  Any calc should probably consider the chances he has a monster.   I will try and build that in too. 

I can't do the calcs now as I am phone only for a few days.  I guess I could do it, but it is so much easier on a PC.

As an aside there was a hand when we were down to 2 or 3 tables where I had AQs (BB) and the scandi on the button did a near min 4 bet.  It so much screamed of aces at the time, but I was too bad to make a fold and shoved instead.  This hand may have weighed when I was discounting some of the QQ, KK and aces combos.

I may try and get hold of the supersonic hand when i get back.  It was 9 handed, i was 2nd or so and I had A9 off in the BB and possibly 12bbs and SB had possibly 8 bbs.  It was folded round and he shoved.   Again the pay leaps are steep and big, so it felt different to what could be a standard call in a $50 turbo or $35 180 manner.  I think the possibility of a chop 4 or 5 handed could be factored in if I am feeling like a masochist.

I am determined to be better prepared next time this happens, even if it doesn't happen again until 2016.

Anyway, need to catch up on sleep.