Yuck

[Rupert]

I put his range as AJs+, AQ+, and maybe 88 to JJ.  I think you can add in half QQ combinations and maybe a quarter of AA and KKs.

i think you are way off at the mill FT guys obviously a fish and KK+ are way more likely than JJ downwards. AJ/AQ almost certainly out of the question IMO. fold

[George2Loose]

I put his range as AJs+, AQ+, and maybe 88 to JJ.  I think you can add in half QQ combinations and maybe a quarter of AA and KKs.

i think you are way off at the mill FT guys obviously a fish and KK+ are way more likely than JJ downwards. AJ/AQ almost certainly out of the question IMO. fold

He had AT tho

[doubleup]

I put his range as AJs+, AQ+, and maybe 88 to JJ.  I think you can add in half QQ combinations and maybe a quarter of AA and KKs.

i think you are way off at the mill FT guys obviously a fish and KK+ are way more likely than JJ downwards. AJ/AQ almost certainly out of the question IMO. fold

He had AT tho

He has to have exactly Ax and never a pair to make it an icm call

[George2Loose]

I was just responding to AJ/AQ being out of the question.

I may be trivialising the situation slightly with it being such a huge shove with the money jumps being huge. Also taking a deal being likely should be taken into consideration. Still think I'd jam tho.

[doubleup]

I was just responding to AJ/AQ being out of the question.

I may be trivialising the situation slightly with it being such a huge shove with the money jumps being huge. Also taking a deal being likely should be taken into consideration. Still think I'd jam tho.

If you knew for certain that your stack was worth $130k if you folded and $180k if you won the hand, would you still jam?

[George2Loose]

I was just responding to AJ/AQ being out of the question.

I may be trivialising the situation slightly with it being such a huge shove with the money jumps being huge. Also taking a deal being likely should be taken into consideration. Still think I'd jam tho.

If you knew for certain that your stack was worth $130k if you folded and $180k if you won the hand, would you still jam?

When you put it like that, no

[Doobs]

I was just responding to AJ/AQ being out of the question.

I may be trivialising the situation slightly with it being such a huge shove with the money jumps being huge. Also taking a deal being likely should be taken into consideration. Still think I'd jam tho.

If you knew for certain that your stack was worth $130k if you folded and $180k if you won the hand, would you still jam?

I had a feeling that the numbers were going to be something like that and it was an ICM error.

But difficult to think that clearly in 30 seconds* when you have been up 24 hours.  Will try and post a better analysis when I get home in a few days because I think both this and the supersonic hand could be useful to someone.

* I didn't want to dwell too long as there was a player to act behind, though thinking afterwards I frequently assume a big dwell is sandbagging and not that he has a difficult decision.

[Ant040689]

Tough.

I think I would be looking for any reason to fold this spot, as you are calling down a big stack instead of getting any fold equity, you are often flipping, pay jumps are massive and perhaps the table may have been ripe for some low risk stealing with your stack.

Saying that you only have 30 bbs, you clearly have a good vibe of the table and went with your gut instinct which was spot on to be ahead.

I think the only thing that makes this a fold is the amount of chips the shover has, and the likelihood that he has a pair and initial raiser is going to fold out an out if yours in his AJ or whatever.

I do shove, unquestionably with JJ and above.

I had a similar close call coming 14th in this and regret, a little, my exit hand but I know only too well that playing for that long will mean you are probably zoned in to play to win instead of fully comprehend icm.

Great score regardless, keep knocking on the door.

[youthnkzR]

Tough.

I think I would be looking for any reason to fold this spot, as you are calling down a big stack instead of getting any fold equity, you are often flipping, pay jumps are massive and perhaps the table may have been ripe for some low risk stealing with your stack.

Saying that you only have 30 bbs, you clearly have a good vibe of the table and went with your gut instinct which was spot on to be ahead.

I think the only thing that makes this a fold is the amount of chips the shover has, and the likelihood that he has a pair and initial raiser is going to fold out an out if yours in his AJ or whatever.

I do shove, unquestionably with JJ and above.

I had a similar close call coming 14th in this and regret, a little, my exit hand but I know only too well that playing for that long will mean you are probably zoned in to play to win instead of fully comprehend icm.

Great score regardless, keep knocking on the door.

Agree with all this, but I am possibly more biased towards fold as the money would mean a lot more to me them a lot of others on here.

Very nice run mate and v unlucky.. Still a good score tho!

[SuuPRlim]

 I know (not from physical experience obv but you know ) that you have so much more FE on these big finals with a stack like you have I'd so so so much more rather be the guy shipping with AQ than you calling off with AK. Obv horrible how it turned out very UL

Good result though but sigh x

[stato_1]

This feels like a fold to me, not ran the numbers though

[Doobs]

Right, ran the numbers.

All these assume rany01 folds

I have $125287 of equity after I put the blinds and antes and assuming arnon shraga takes the pot.

I have $173692 of equity if I call and win.

I have $30872 of hard cash if I call and lose.

Assuming a range that includes AT off, I lose $10.1K by calling.
Assuming a range of 88 to JJ, AJs+, AQs+, which is more or less what I put him on (and excluding big pairs for ease of stoving), I lose $15.4K by calling.

I think these numbers are optimistic, as the low variance line is always better in these huge pots.  This is because variance in $100k pots is never going to even out.

If Rany01 calls, it would be higely optimistic to assume the numbers are going to be better, so think I could add a few k to my deficit for the chance of Rany01 calling and having us crushed.

So basically, calling is the ICM disaster I suspected it might be at the time.  I only got unlucky because I made a really bad call. 

7am and same call others would have made in my defence.

Not sure I dare look back on that supersonic one now, but my instinct is that it is going to be a better result than this.

[Doobs]

and the supersonic one, which I hated too...

I saw my cards and was really hoping somebody shoved before the button.

I will post the numbers tomorrow, if nobody wants to comment

FT of supersonic. prizes are $43704, $31825, $23947, $17960, $12572, $10177, $7783, $5388, $3253

9 left, this is the 2nd hand of the final table.   I can't remember the stats at the time, but FT just started so not sure how relevant how they played 5 handed is anyway.

Table is tougher then million FT: 2, 5, 6 and 7 are pocket 5 ranked; 3 are in top 100 or therabouts.

PokerStars Hand #89820595406: Tournament #657010008, $210.80+$4.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVII (20000/40000) - 2012/11/26 0:54:22 WET [2012/11/25 19:54:22 ET]
Table '657010008 89' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: bullstopper (530062 in chips)
Seat 2: donvito1st (241961 in chips)
Seat 3: CardRouleTTe (327966 in chips)
Seat 4: TaurusK (265255 in chips)
Seat 5: FellipeNunes (550423 in chips)
Seat 6: mcnallyville (321324 in chips)
Seat 7: The Lag rat (714491 in chips)
Seat 8: akport (77758 in chips)
Seat 9: karabasych (378760 in chips)
bullstopper: posts the ante 8000
donvito1st: posts the ante 8000
CardRouleTTe: posts the ante 8000
TaurusK: posts the ante 8000
FellipeNunes: posts the ante 8000
mcnallyville: posts the ante 8000
The Lag rat: posts the ante 8000
akport: posts the ante 8000
karabasych: posts the ante 8000
karabasych: posts small blind 20000
bullstopper: posts big blind 40000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bullstopper [ Ah]
donvito1st: folds
CardRouleTTe: folds
TaurusK: folds
The Lag rat said, "husss"
FellipeNunes: folds
mcnallyville: folds
The Lag rat: folds
akport: folds
karabasych: raises 330760 to 370760 and is all-in
bullstopper: ?

[George2Loose]

This looks like an easy fold

[Doobs]

This looks like an easy fold

To my relief this is much closer than the other.

pre call we have $20527 equity.  If we hit, we get $28526, if we miss we have $11555.  So we only need to be 53% vs his range.

The table was really good quality from memory, so think we need to push edges.

I haven't played on a huge number of big sunday final tables*, so not entirely sure how much the average player tightens up vs your average daily mid stakes donkament.

But my base assumption is that most regs are going to be shoving wide here just through instinct, and regardless of the prize pool.

As it is, we are -$1100 vs top 20% and +$611 against top 50%, +$1357 vs any 2.  I think assuming he pushes top 50% is a reasonable base assumption. 

So I think call is just about right.  Though you can counter this by making my previous point about variance.  I have played precisely one $100k flip in my life (see previous).  So I am unlikely to get anywhere close to evening out my variance in $100k flips.  Though I have probably played several more flips in the $15k region, over a few years play, I can still be some way from the mean in those flips.  Luck does get close to evening out if you play several hundred k hands at $1/$2, but you aren't ever getting close to even on big flips at the end of big MTTs.

Basically, I think there is a lot to be said for taking the low variance fold line here.  I didn't in this hand, or the next one.

* and haven't lasted long on the ones I have played!  There may be an obvious reason for this.