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Poker Hand Analysis
Another river decision.
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Topic: Another river decision. (Read 3364 times)
tight4better
Hero Member
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Posts: 1019
Another river decision.
«
on:
December 28, 2012, 05:23:13 PM »
Same gala 50/1. Same villains as before.
Villain is heavily on the tight side, but is capable of weird shit, previous HH including her jamming with A7 on AA458ddd and we tank called with flush, we have long history but not a lot of humungous pots played which weren't standard, to put it another way I tank cold4/called with KK vs her.. We're covered playing £285.
She makes it £6 UTG, weak player calls. We make it £22 OTB with
. We're planning on folding if she 4bets to any amount.
She calls, other guy folds.
Flop (£51.50)
She donks for £25 which we don't like at all. Don't really see folding as an option at this point though as well we have BDFD and BDSD.
Turn (£101.50)
Planned on folding to bets >£60 as I think she'd have AK minimum at this point, but she checks and we decide to check and go for a medium sized value bet on a safe river.
River (£101.50)
She tanks for 30 secs, small visible live tell and she bets £25. You?
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TL900
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #1 on:
December 28, 2012, 05:42:27 PM »
75/fold
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
Donk23
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #2 on:
December 28, 2012, 05:43:40 PM »
Quote from: TL900 on December 28, 2012, 05:42:27 PM
75/fold
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Honeybadger
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Posts: 1920
Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #3 on:
December 28, 2012, 07:06:16 PM »
Flop... not sure why you'd not like the weak donk. When weak players take this line on Axx flops it is usually a weak hand in my experience; sometimes a worse Ace but more often a second pair hand like KQ/KJ (and occasionally just a random bluff too) - betting for no other reason than she has flopped a pair and doesn't know what else to do. I rarely see this line from weak players when they have strong hands (in fact I rarely see it from ANY player with a strong hand since it simply makes no sense to donk this flop in a 3bet pot). I'd make a small raise on the flop - small enough for villain to call with not just any Ace but also all her Kx hands. If she 3bets you can just happily fold, no big deal.
As played, I'd bet the turn for clear value. Again... whatever you think she will call with KQ/KJ etc. Usually fold if she c/r.
As played, this is reasonable advice:
Quote from: TL900 on December 28, 2012, 05:42:27 PM
75/fold
Although I might prefer just jamming it in here since she is most likely never ever folding any Ace here (and she may occasionally even make some insane hero call with a King). We will lose our stack some of the time of course... but that should not trouble us since the most important thing is to get full value from weak players when we are in a situation in which they have a LOT of second best hands in their range.
I think you are seeing a few too many monsters under the bed in this hand, and this is preventing you from aggressively betting your hand for value.
BTW... what was the 'visible live tell' before she bet the river? Depending on what it was, this could of course change everything lol...
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tight4better
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #4 on:
December 28, 2012, 08:40:13 PM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on December 28, 2012, 07:06:16 PM
Flop... not sure why you'd not like the weak donk. When weak players take this line on Axx flops it is usually a weak hand in my experience; sometimes a worse Ace but more often a second pair hand like KQ/KJ (and occasionally just a random bluff too) - betting for no other reason than she has flopped a pair and doesn't know what else to do. I rarely see this line from weak players when they have strong hands (in fact I rarely see it from ANY player with a strong hand since it simply makes no sense to donk this flop in a 3bet pot). I'd make a small raise on the flop - small enough for villain to call with not just any Ace but also all her Kx hands. If she 3bets you can just happily fold, no big deal.
As played, I'd bet the turn for clear value. Again... whatever you think she will call with KQ/KJ etc. Usually fold if she c/r.
As played, this is reasonable advice:
Quote from: TL900 on December 28, 2012, 05:42:27 PM
75/fold
Although I might prefer just jamming it in here since she is most likely never ever folding any Ace here (and she may occasionally even make some insane hero call with a King). We will lose our stack some of the time of course... but that should not trouble us since the most important thing is to get full value from weak players when we are in a situation in which they have a LOT of second best hands in their range.
I think you are seeing a few too many monsters under the bed in this hand, and this is preventing you from aggressively betting your hand for value.
BTW... what was the 'visible live tell' before she bet the river? Depending on what it was, this could of course change everything lol...
I know villain quite well so I took out Kx from her range, narrowed it to Ax+ basically. I also know she has no concept of what a donk bet means or represents and doesn't follow standard rules of checking to aggressor which led me to think her being stronger.
Visible live tell, looking down at chips, hands shaking knocked a 20 stack over, gulp.
Result ->
We just called expecting to see AK honestly, she showed KK
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zerofive
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #5 on:
December 28, 2012, 10:31:14 PM »
What's villain's name?
If it's who I think, she's not as tight as you think but she does play oddly passive post-flop. For me, call flop, check turn, call river is fine against her. Expect a worse ace that she bet/folds to be the bottom of her range with this line. Feels horribly nitty and is definitely not my default line with this hand
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tight4better
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #6 on:
December 28, 2012, 10:32:01 PM »
Quote from: zerofive on December 28, 2012, 10:31:14 PM
What's villain's name?
If it's who I think, she's not as tight as you think but she does play oddly passive post-flop. For me, call flop, check turn, call river is fine against her. Expect a worse ace that she bet/folds to be the bottom of her range with this line. Feels horribly nitty and is definitely not my default line with this hand
It's tina
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zerofive
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #7 on:
December 28, 2012, 10:44:03 PM »
Quote from: tight4better on December 28, 2012, 10:32:01 PM
Quote from: zerofive on December 28, 2012, 10:31:14 PM
What's villain's name?
If it's who I think, she's not as tight as you think but she does play oddly passive post-flop. For me, call flop, check turn, call river is fine against her. Expect a worse ace that she bet/folds to be the bottom of her range with this line. Feels horribly nitty and is definitely not my default line with this hand
It's tina
Thought so. The above applies then I think
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Honeybadger
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #8 on:
December 28, 2012, 10:58:57 PM »
This comment applies to all three hands you have posted...
If you have specific reads on your opponents and knowledge of how they play/their ranges then any general advice given by myself and others is going to be fairly redundant. For example, I gave my advice on all three hands based on my perception of the general population tendency amongst weak players in small stakes live cash games that I have experienced over the years. If you gave specific reads on any of your opponents then my advice may (or may not) have been different.
IMO there are three main learning 'areas' when posting hand histories:
1. What is the best theoretical line?
2. What is the best way to depart from theory to exploit an opponent? (this is just poker logic really)
3. What range/tendencies would you expect villain to have here? What does x line suggest that villain has? etc. (this is basically asking people to give you the benefit of their experience playing vs different types of players)
You need to have a conception of Number 3 before you can attempt Number 2.
It is pretty obvious from most of my posts on PHA that I mainly focus on 'theoretical' stuff. This is because rarely do OPs provide detailed reads in their HHs, so all we have to go on is how to play the hand best in a vacuum.
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muckthenuts
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #9 on:
December 28, 2012, 11:13:11 PM »
The donk is good for us, she's like never ahead when she does this.
I'd bet turn for value. If she has an A she won't fold, as players are simply biologically incapable of folding top pair at these stakes.
River is a jam. Honeybadger nailed it, you lose your stack a rare amount of the time but should get it all every time she's holding an ace, and <Ax hands aren't calling a raise anyway.
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Sulphur man
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #10 on:
December 28, 2012, 11:54:46 PM »
OP What range do you put Tina(Ainsworth?) on opening UTG to £6.
Personally think its a really nutted range with very few (near zero)
bluffs/weak holdings.
Certainly wouldn't class this lady as weak HONEYBADGER tight player most
definitely not weak though.
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I've never played any game, or done anything that was so powerful at making you believe that you 'owned' it... before making you realize that you actually don't.
SuuPRlim
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #11 on:
December 29, 2012, 12:23:50 AM »
I'm with Stu, I think the turn is a clear cleat value bet, I also think folding on the turn to a £60 bet would be a mistake.
The flop, meh, I'd raise personally, but calling should be fine too - not because we're scared of her having a better hand, if she has AK then sigh we're gonna do some money in the hand guarenteed (we won't lose our stack) but i'd rather just focus on making her weaker hands PAY instead of panicking about how much we're gonna lose against the very best hands she has (remember as Stu said for every hand she has that beats us she has a handful we beat)
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Sulphur man
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #12 on:
December 29, 2012, 12:59:25 AM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on December 29, 2012, 12:23:50 AM
I'm with Stu, I think the turn is a clear cleat value bet, I also think folding on the turn to a £60 bet would be a mistake.
The flop, meh, I'd raise personally, but calling should be fine too - not because we're scared of her having a better hand, if she has AK then sigh we're gonna do some money in the hand guarenteed (we won't lose our stack) but i'd rather just focus on making her weaker hands PAY instead of panicking about how much we're gonna lose against the very best hands she has (remember as Stu said for every hand she has that beats us she has a handful we beat)
Example of the possible handful of hands we beat please. Super tight range to me here.
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SuuPRlim
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #13 on:
December 29, 2012, 01:05:00 AM »
we only lose to A4/AK/44 and I dont think she checks the turn with any of these hardly ever the only hand tht beats us I can see her playing like this is A3 and you're saying she wont open A3 UTG so literally she has to have exclusively AK and surely she 4bets that SOME % of the time prelfop.
So there is
and I really think she'd 3bet the suited one a lot of the time
KQs KJs AJ/ATs we beat.
Basically by the turn it seems literally impossible to be beaten.
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Sulphur man
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Re: Another river decision.
«
Reply #14 on:
December 29, 2012, 01:20:35 AM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on December 29, 2012, 01:05:00 AM
we only lose to A4/AK/44 and I dont think she checks the turn with any of these hardly ever the only hand tht beats us I can see her playing like this is A3 and you're saying she wont open A3 UTG so literally she has to have exclusively AK and surely she 4bets that SOME % of the time prelfop.
So there is
and I really think she'd 3bet the suited one a lot of the time
KQs KJs AJ/ATs we beat.
Basically by the turn it seems literally impossible to be beaten.
Honestly can't see us being ahead V's said Villain. Call and get shown AK. Could be AJs
really dont see it though unless the game is uber tez from her view.
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I've never played any game, or done anything that was so powerful at making you believe that you 'owned' it... before making you realize that you actually don't.
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