Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Brutal stage in progress at Tirreno-Adriatico, loads of riders abandoning including Cavendish.

Probably the toughest stage seen this year, with climbs of 27% many got off and walked. Over 50 riders abandoned.



Sagan the wunderkid, wins again. Short odds already for Milan-Sanremo get shorter.

Froome lost the overall lead to a strong attack from Nibali.

[Tonji]

Milan-Sanremo on Sunday, the first Monument of the season. I'm on Cancellara with a pre-season bet at 11/1, that has drifted a bit 

A few days to ponder if there is any value anywhere in opposing Sagan.

Maybe one of the Sky boys, who have been training at altitude in Tenerife?

[vegaslover]

Sagan is looking awesome, put him ahead of Cav now, massive fav for Green at TdF surely.

[Tonji]

Sagan is looking awesome, put him ahead of Cav now, massive fav for Green at TdF surely.

Certainly he can dominate for years to come, he's only 23. Frightening!

Bet Victor have priced him 5/4, Cav 13/8 in the TdF points classification.

Looking at his programme.

MSR on sunday strong fav, it really is his to loose.

E3 Prijs Vlaanderen - Harelbeke on 22nd, he should start fav.

Gent - Wevelgem on 24th, he was 2nd in 2012.

Then you've got Tour of Flanders, best price at the moment is 4/1. I got 8/1 back in February. Looking at that market also like the 18/1 Geraint Thomas.

Alot can happen between now & then.

[Tonji]

This Is Not a Story About Last Place.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324532004578358780883339720.html?KEYWORDS=phinney

One of the reasons Phinney is already a great rider & an inspirational bloke.

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

Sunday is the 104th Edition of Milan-Sanremo, la classica di Primavera. At nearly 300km it is longest one day race in the world. At nearly 7 hours racing, only the strongest fittest riders can expect to win.

Click to see full-size image.

The bookies & cycling journalist expect only one winner, Peter Sagan. Probably the hottest favourite in years. Best price at the moment is 7/4. To short for me to get involved.

Possible value options to consider later, when full teams are confirmed, & more accurate weather forecast is available.

[Tonji]

MSR in the past has thrown up a few surprise winners.

Tactics will play a large part, particularly in the last 30km, from the Cipressa to the Poggio. Where the sprint teams try to control breakaways (generally unsucessfully in recent years), & punchy climbers attack full gas to get away.



This vid from last year by Zabel & Frere gives an idea of the tactical awareness needed in this race.

[Tonji]

Start list confirmed.

http://media2.gazzetta.it/gazzetta/pdf/2013/Iscritti-MI-SANREMO-2013.pdf

Weather update looks bad, north easterly strong winds and a lot of rain in San Remo, low temperatures, & possibilities of snow in the early part of the day.

[Tonji]

Why Sagan may not win MSR.

Rumours that he has not fully 100% recovered from bronchitis, particularly after the brutal stage in foul weather at TA. 300km in cold rainy MSR may take its toll at the crucial final sections of the race.

Tactically in the past mistakes have cost him races. Still young so understandable. Traditionally the Monuments of cycling are won by riders in their late twenties or early thirties.

Other teams will me marking him. No surprise that, but if two or three teams (I'm thinking OPQS, BMC & Sky) throw their weight around Sagan & Cannondale can make tactical errors.

[Tonji]

With the bookies backing Sagan as such a short priced favourite. Opportunities & long prices are available elsewhere.

Cavendish 9/1 on the face of it looks good. However, I have my doubts he can stay with the pace over the Poggio. He has also been talking down his chances (probably mind games). Although the OPQS does look particularly strong with Boonen, Chavanel & Terpstra. Bunch sprints have not been as common in MSR in recent history.

I'm intrigued by how Sky will perform. They ensued the traditional build up to MSR & the classics by altitude training in Tenerife, instead of the normal race build up in Tierreno. By applying specific training methods in winning the TdF, they are now using their own unique approach into winning a major classic. A risky strategy, but Sky have delivered, remember the doubters when Sky said their aim was to win the TdF.

Sky look to have 2 options in Thomas or Edvald Boassen Hagen. My hunch is that Thomas is the protected rider. His stage win in TDU had similarities to the finish at MSR. A fine 4th in Omloop shows he has solid strength & endurance. His last blog entry all sounds positive. This may be the only time the Sky team has flown under the radar before a major race & bookies have, imo, overlooked them somewhat . EBH available at 33/1, but I think he'll be better at Gent-Wevelgem & Flanders. Geriant Thomas, 40/1 is my EW bet.

[vegaslover]

I would much prefer Thomas over EBH, Thomas seems to have kicked on this year whereas EBH never looks as though he's ever going to fulfill his potential.

[Tonji]

I would much prefer Thomas over EBH, Thomas seems to have kicked on this year whereas EBH never looks as though he's ever going to fulfill his potential.

Agree, Vegas. He's kind of Sagan "lite" if you see what I mean, can climb & sprint, but seems to lack a killer instinct at the end of races. Think he needs a big result this season, or Sky may ship him out.

[Tonji]

The Telegraph do a race preview of MSR.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/9933218/Milan-Sanremo-2013-race-preview.html

I've also taken a small interset in Mauro Santambrogio. A 28 year old Italian on the Pro Continental Vini Fantini team. He's is in exceptional shape. Strong early season results, particularly a 7th overall in TA, including a 4th in the brutal 6th stage. At the back end of last year he also finished 4th in Il lombardia in torrential rain. With a decent sprint out of a small bunch & strong endurance in the longest races. I'd expect him to feature in the final selection tomorrow. 67/1

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

The feeding zone in MSR today 

[Tonji]

Seems like Race will stop in Ovada, to avoid snow, & then bus transfer, to restart in Arenzano. Some abandons already. Crazy day ahead!