PLO Tourney Bubble Spot

[Karabiner]

As per the title:

Playing 8-handed and sitting 14/16 with 15 getting paid we have c15k with blinds 600/1200.

We are dealt AA35 padooki utg...

[George2Loose]

Think u need stacks here Ralph

[Karabiner]

Think u need stacks here Ralph

Shortest stack is c12k, av is c40k.

[George2Loose]

Think u need stacks here Ralph

Shortest stack is c12k, av is c40k.

As in the rest of the table

[SuuPRlim]

POT (see what happens)

(obv AI preflop if you can) Pot/call nearly very flop, im afraid it's not even remotely close, it does slightly suck but there is literally nothing else you can do.

There are a few flops you can c/f but really not that many - speshly online, and ESPCIALLY getting your money in first which always gives you that extra little bit if FE.

This isn't that cool but there is physically no other play I'm afraid.

[Karabiner]

So I pot it to 4200 and the big stack on my direct left peels.

Now a guy in LP decides to squeeze allin for c18K.

I have 10.5k remaining....

[tikay]

Cash bubble bubble.

How badly do you want to win, or cash big, relative to a min-cash?

If a Min-Cash is in your thinking, we can find a fold. If we exempt that from our thinking, I think this is the best spot we will find, & I have to get the lot in. 

[doubleup]

Bit tricky to work out. 

If we win we are around average stack with 15 left, so lets say our equity is 1/15th of the prizepool. 

If we fold we still won't cash all the time, so lets say that we are gambling 90% of the bubble amount and have a 35% chance of winning.  Then try to work out which is biggest?

How do nlhe mtters roughly work out these situations?

[Ironside]

So I pot it to 4200 and the big stack on my direct left peels.

Now a guy in LP decides to squeeze allin for c18K.

I have 10.5k remaining....

get them in, if it was a sat you can find a fold

[Doobs]

You played it fine if you get it in.  These things always weighted to the top few, so aiming for a min cash here is bad. 

[GreekStein]

anything but all in is really bad here imo

[Karabiner]

I never even considered that folding was an option until after the hand.

I just snapped it in but didn't like what I saw when the hands were revealed:

Me: AA35r
CL: KJT8ds
Sq: AA25hh

Obviously Billy big-stack flopped 2-pairs and then rivered a flush to scoop. At least he didn't waste them as he ended up winning the tourney outright. He's actually a nice bloke and a decent player (BV4ever) who has an FTOPS win on his CV.

PS That is my 4th pure bubble in that tourney from my last 13 attempts, grrrrr

[doubleup]

the hands were like this?


AdAs3h5c    20.41%    60,645    147,272

AhAc2d5h    24.87%    90,005    147,272

KcJcTs8s    54.72%    360,086    0


don't think I've ever seen the nuts with such bad equity lol

[Patonius2000]

Super easy fold

[Karabiner]

Super easy fold

UTG or after the raise?

It's a shame that you didn't express this opinion/ catch up  earlier itt as I did actually e-mail a friend directly after the tourney and ask him if he thought it was possible to fold utg.