400nl, lots of draws ott facing aggression

[pleno1]

villain is reggy, 28/24, 70% cbet, no c/r so far, best plan ott?

HERO's image is out of line, and potentially overly aggressive

€2/€4  No Limit Holdem 
Prima 
6 Players 
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com 
 
Stacks: 
UTG  Player3 (€453.30) 113bb 
UTG+1  Player4 (€542.60) 136bb 
CO  Player5 (€400) 100bb 
BTN  pleno1 (€400) 100bb 
SB  Player1 (€757.40) 189bb 
BB  Player2 (€400) 100bb 
 
Pre-Flop: (€6, 6 players) pleno1 is BTN : : 
Player3 raises to €10, 2 folds, pleno1 calls €10, 2 folds 
 
Flop: (€26, 2 players) 
Player3 checks, pleno1 bets €16, Player3 raises to €46, pleno1 calls €30 
 
Turn:  (€118, 2 players) 
Player3 bets €88 
 
Final Pot: €118

[rfgqqabc]

Seems like a spot to call with the lack of credit he will give us. I'm struggling to think of many hands he folds apart from broadway clubs (or hearts maybe?). Seems pretty poor for him to bet/fold 9x if your ool. The A hits his range more than ours correct? We are more likely to have pairs/draws and he could feasibly have Axcc as well as A9 maybe, possibly A4 suited but I'd be surprised. Seems hard for us to have too many none pair hands but we are kinda capped from just calling the checkraise so it feels like call> raise but it really depends on range construction (like do you have A9/A6 ever here? sets? What is your perceived range?.)

[JustinSayne]

I have done some very poor maths.

I may be way off. But presuming we have 30%ish equity vs his range. We are risking 344 to win 206. He only needs to fold <20% of the time for us to have a +EV jam once you consider our equity.

Kind of afraid to post my working since its likely bad but looks like a jam vs someone aggro

*Edit - Thought it was too good to be true. We actually need around 33% fold equity for this to be a +EV jam.

This site is your friend

http://www.fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php

[pleno1]

9x b/calling would be insanely bad imo

[outragous76]

Abs perfect to call turn and overshove river when we hit and "clubs miss"

[JustinSayne]

I would imagine most shove any river with 100% of their range.

[rfgqqabc]

9x b/calling would be insanely bad imo

So what does he do with 9x? c/c?

[Honeybadger]

Seems like a really easy call on the turn. Jamming might also be profitable but we have no idea how villain is constructing his flop check-raising range as the PFR and so it is difficult to assess if jamming is more +EV than calling, if indeed it even is +EV. When one line is clearly +EV and the other line is murky/unclear I prefer to take the clear line.

[SuuPRlim]

Jamming seems like spew to me, our hand is so strong we can just play for our equity no? We only need 30% equity to flick the 88 in and fit/fold every river card and we have that for defo. Count in the fact we'll get way less credit for hearts when they hit (so could get some weaker VBs and a couple of bluffs on heart rivers) 10 is a hidden(ish) striaght as only 1 combo gets there so would expect to be getting more bets when we make our hand a very high % so there is enough profit in the turn call to not need any other plan for this than call and hit+bet or miss+fold.

We never get taken off the best hand either except or so we never lose any equity folding rivers we miss. Nice spot imo.