400nl deep bluff

[pleno1]

villain is decent reg, value bets wide.

Thoughts?

€2/€4  No Limit Holdem 
Prima 
6 Players 
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com 
 
Stacks: 
UTG  Player2 (€820.40) 205bb 
UTG+1  Player3 (€220) 55bb 
CO  Player4 (€1,032.35) 258bb 
BTN  Player5 (€722.10) 181bb 
SB  Player6 (€1,337.32) 334bb 
BB  pleno1 (€1,003.20) 251bb 
 
Pre-Flop: (€6, 6 players) pleno1 is BB : : 
Player2 raises to €12, 4 folds, pleno1 calls €8 
 
Flop: : : : (€26, 2 players) 
pleno1 checks, Player2 bets €20, pleno1 calls €20 
 
Turn: : (€66, 2 players) 
pleno1 checks, Player2 bets €44, pleno1 calls €44 
 
River: :kh (€154, 2 players) 
pleno1 checks, Player2 bets €136, pleno1 goes all-in €927.20 
 
Final Pot: €426 
 
 


He has around, €610 left otr after his €135

[outragous76]

Guess it depends what you normally do with sets on the flop or 2 pr on the turn, if call is your standard line it looks ok,

[millidonk]

I think sets and 2 prs are more likely to c/c flop and c/r turn as opposed to your line here. I am assuming we don't feel like we have any showdown when the 6 hits? If this is the case I would opt to c/r turn, still can do lots of get theres if he calls. Think your line in this hand is what it is, just feels a bit bluffy to me and would expect him to be calling with pretty much his entire range.

Pretty interesting hh, interested to see what others think.

[Honeybadger]

This is a very good bluff IMO.

[rfgqqabc]

Pre feels a little suspect if he is decent.

Looks like such a sweet bluff vs his size (y)

edit: Can you play 22 this way? Seems a little unbalanced if you fold 22/44 pre which i presume you do if you dont open them utg.

[dwayne110]

Hi Pleno, will the villain not consider the check-raise all in on the river more suspicious? i.e. if you had a monster, check-calling flop then check-calling or check-raising turn makes sense, but surely he'd expect you to lead out on the river to prevent him checking behind?

[Honeybadger]

I think sets and 2 prs are more likely to c/c flop and c/r turn as opposed to your line here.

if you had a monster, check-calling flop then check-calling or check-raising turn makes sense

Check-raising the turn with a set here is NOT the best way to play - although it is the line that weaker players very often take. Once you have chosen to check-call the flop rather than check-raise, you usually have to man up and check-call the turn too rather than pussy out and check-raise. Yes, the board is getting drawy and sometimes a really shitty river comes, but the whole point is to maximise vs villain's 3 barrel bluffs and thin value bets and you need to stay consistent with this plan. Villain will often bluff scary river cards remember!

Thus villain should expect hero to play a set/straight this way (i.e. c/c all way to the river) a decent amount of the time, so the line is consistent with having a strong hand and thus is a good bluff spot. Also, on this board run out hero has pretty much no complete air with which to bluff with, so he should be choosing some of the weak made hands in his range to turn into bluffs - blockers to villain having a set himself etc.

N.B. I don't necessarily agree with hero's play prior to the river, but I think the river c/r bluff is good.

but surely he'd expect you to lead out on the river to prevent him checking behind?

c/c flop, c/c turn, donk river line here would be pretty bad - like I said, if you are targetting villain's bluffs and thin value bets you've got to stay consistent to the plan and not pussy out on either the turn or the river. Villain would presumably expect hero to know this, so would not expect hero to be donking the river with his good hands. Especially on this river card BTW.

[dwayne110]

makes sense honeybadger - how would your approach on the river change if you thought the villain was a weak player (i.e. and may not associate this line with strength)?

[Honeybadger]

makes sense honeybadger - how would your approach on the river change if you thought the villain was a weak player (i.e. and may not associate this line with strength)?

I'd try to have a set instead of third pair

[JustinSayne]

I feel that in 2013 this gets seen for what it is.

Everyones river aggression is sky high these days

He will most likely give you credit for half the set combos then 5 or so combos of 88-JJ turned into a bluff and click the middle button.

[Honeybadger]

I feel that in 2013 this gets seen for what it is.

Everyones river aggression is sky high these days

He will most likely give you credit for half the set combos then 5 or so combos of 88-JJ turned into a bluff and click the middle button.

Another population read? This time of 400NL players...

When you say "in 2013 this gets seen for what it is", what exactly are you meaning? Because 'what it is' is going to be a relatively balanced range composed mainly of sets/straights but with some weak hands turned into bluffs to balance this. This is one of those weak hands turned into a bluff.

Also, you said "5 or so combos of 88-JJ turned into a bluff". If villain sees hero as competent he would not expect hero to turn something like TT into a bluff. Because 88-JJ is not the right part of your range to be turning into a bluff on the river.

[SuuPRlim]

this would work vs me everytime lol

[JustinSayne]

What I mean when I say "in 2013 this gets seen for what it is" is that almost all players at 400nl will be familiar with the concept of turning made hands into bluffs, instead of bluffcatching.

So they will see this line and start to construct a range that Pleno takes this line with. We cant give any credit for straights since defending 58s/35s is very optimistic. So we are left with 12 combos of sets. Lets give 67s too just to give Pleno a really thin CRAI range otr. So now we are at 14 value combos. I imagine he will also most likely "discount" combos since he will expect the average reg to try and pile more money in at a earlier street with 1 of these 14 hands.

He will then look at the range of hands that could be turned into a bluff and from Pleno previous hands taking a educated guess at what frequency he will be doing this.

Since Pleno has 24 combos of 88-JJ, lets say A3ss,A5ss and 2 combos of 78s. We are left with 28 potential bluff combos.

Now obviously Pleno wont be bluffing with 100% frequency. However his value range is going to be perceived as waaaay narrower than 14 combos of value (due to action in previous streets and stack depth)

So what I imagine a lot of regs will think, "ok, 12 combos of sets, he didnt raise and we are really deep, lets say half the combos, so 6 combos. Is it really a stretch of the imagination that he is turning some SDV into a bluff"

It certainly isnt a bad bluff. But the reason I said "in 2013" is because these kinds of bluffs are becoming extremely common place and as a result they are being picked off way lighter than before.

[SuuPRlim]

thing is though if pads has the right amount of value combos for this spot then the guy doesn't "win" by just stubbornly stationing off here. Although he will be awarded the chips on this specific occasion.

[JustinSayne]

For sure, if Pleno actually has all 14 combos for value here then he cant really bluffcatch "thin" at all.

However what Plenos actual range is and what his range will be perceived to be is two different things, as I am sure you know