Reverse Poker Hand Analysis (Live Cash)

[ruud]

Apologies for the slightly unorthodox way of posting this hand, but I am trying to think about my hands in a slightly different way at the moment so I thought I would share on here.

Live .50/£1 at DTD Friday Night

We have been sat down for about 2.5 hours, and we now have £215 in front of us. We have been reasonably active, though we have mainly shown down value hands. We did get a full double with the mighty   on  , which villain witnessed. We also called him down in a £60 pot with JJ on K3378. A couple of times I have opened the cutoff and folded to his BB 3-bet. I feel all this is relevant info to the hand in question, though it can be interpreted however you wish.

The Hand

I open the CO to £5, Button (solid player) calls, SB folds, BB raises to £16

We peel, as does the Button.

Flop (pot £48)  

BB bets £27, we peel after some thought, Button folds

Turn (£102)

Check, Check

River  (£102)

BB checks, we bet £43

Questions:

1. what does our hand look like to the BB villain?

2. as the villain, what are you doing with:

a) any set
b) 55-66
c) 99-JJ
d) KQ, KK, AA
e) AK (not spades obv)

Thanks, and please, flame away at your pleasure.

I will reveal what I had in due course....

[SuuPRlim]

Hi Ruud.

Okay, this is quite tricky, deepstacked hands are tough to analyse with the "what's my range, what range does this" answers because so much more is dependant on game/fow dynamic, loads more floats etc, so way easier to know your cards and then expand to "what would we do with these hands which we'd also take the same flop/turn line with"

However lets try

Ok so you're range to the oppo. I think we can rule out a flush almost completely, I think it's fair to say you'd either raise the flop, or bet the turn (frequently both) with almost every flush combo by the river.

56, I think it's possible you'd check the turn back but I think we can assume you'd bet this a very high % of the time.

33/44/88 I think raise the flop very often, and bet the turn when checked to very frequently as well.

I don't think you open 83/84, I think its feesible you could have Q8 or 78 but would expect a bet OTT with 78 some%

I think you're Qx's are actually pretty limited as well, as  Qx is a pretty legit flop float, but that would bet the turn a high %,  again legit but blocked, and I'm not sure I'd expect you to float a random KQ/AQ and not bluff the turn with it.

I think the most likely hands you'd take this line with (pre river) is 45/46/A4/86/89/8T/J8/Q8/K8/A8 - although K8 and A8 combos will be much less and if you have the /  I think you'd be expected to stab the turn some amount - prolly the same with J8/Q8 with the / as it buys you a showdown + is for value. I think a lot of you bigger 8X's could bet this river for value, but I can't see 45/46/86/89 betting the river FOR value, I think 86, 89 and T8 are pretty easy check backs, J8+ I think you can VB pretty safely (expect to get called by better from time to time)

I think A4 (although you wont have 4x that much at all) is a chk back, and 45/46 are good candidates to be bluffing with ALTHOUGH IDK how much credibility you'd get after your turn check which I think severely caps your range to Q8 at the abso best.

I also think totally blank 99 and TT is prolly a possibility and ofc these are easy value bets.

To summarise I'd assume, in you villains shoes you'd be going for thin(ish) value with these types of hands over taking a tricky slow-play line, as literally all of the big hands OTT (possible exception of 56) have such vacuum benefit to betting the turn. i.e makes really no exploitative sense without some real dynamic to chk a flush, and hands with the A/K spades and no pair miss a lot of FE by not (semi) bluffing the turn.

What I'd do with
a) any set
Bet the river/raise now
b) 55-66
chk fold/raise as a bluff
c) 99-JJ
call
d) KQ, KK, AA
raise, although leading river better imo
e) AK (not spades obv
fold.

[ruud]

I knew this would be too unconventional for the masses!

I will write more later but just wanted to thank Dave for such a detailed and well thought out reply.

The good/bad news is he didn't call my hand (probably bad news)

[kinboshi]

.sisylana dnah esrever ruoy htiw og ot txet desrever emos evah ,daetsni oS  .tuoba kniht neve dluoc I naht boj retteb raf a did evaD tub ,uoy rof sisylana dnah tnegilletni na etirw ot gniog saw I

[titaniumbean]

tawt

bonk

[SuuPRlim]

I knew this would be too unconventional for the masses!

I will write more later but just wanted to thank Dave for such a detailed and well thought out reply.

The good/bad news is he didn't call my hand (probably bad news)

Well I assumed you've taken some sort of tricky line/unorthadox play as otherwise it wouldn't be a thread lol

Also, the question is...what does your hand look like to your opponent

[ruud]

I knew this would be too unconventional for the masses!

I will write more later but just wanted to thank Dave for such a detailed and well thought out reply.

The good/bad news is he didn't call my hand (probably bad news)

Well I assumed you've taken some sort of tricky line/unorthadox play as otherwise it wouldn't be a thread lol

Also, the question is...what does your hand look like to your opponent

I am not sure i "got tricky" as much as I butchered it with  ....

Thoughts?

Btw I knew, the second that I checked, that I should have bet the turn.... Just getting this in now

[SuuPRlim]

yh well I think most "floats" that include the would be expected to bet the turn I think.

I think it's not nessercarily a bad play to play as you did, you rep a decent enough range for value and dont have enough SD value to check back really. The two problems you have are 1) theoretically speaking, are you value-betting well enough on these rivers to allow a bluff like this to work (and how are you sizing your VB's?) and 2) you lose a LOT of fold equity by checking the turn and effectively capping your range which makes bluff catching a lot easier for your oppo because we can immeadiately take all flushes/sets/most 78/56 combos out of your range which as we've seen totally cripples your value range.

basically - AJ isn't a bad hand to bluff with OTR specifically, but its one of the best hands to bluff the turn with, so you should defo be using this hand to bluff the turn with and pick other equallly as good hands for the call/check/small "value" bet bluff river with, A2/A5 without spades, some of your 3x's and maybe weaker 45/46 hands

Would size bigger though, £60~ think it works better for your whole range, no need to have a bet-size bigger ever really, unless you have specifically Q8/Q7 

[ruud]

That's the worst bit; I know I should bet the turn. And I can't really explain why I didn't.

I am good enough (I think) that I know that by checking here I am removing a lot of big hands from my range, because they pretty much all just have to bet here (though I think I am more likely to check 56/maybe 78 too here).

And I know that I am likely to be forced to bluff on the river. On the river, villain had about £85 left, and this is key info I missed from the original post so apologies for that Dave. I didn't want to bluff here, and I was still annoyed about the turn, but felt compelled as I obv never win at showdown. And then I got the sizing wrong, because when I had been at rivers with big hands, I had been betting a lot heavier than this, and villain seemed reasonably observant. So I should have shoved, and maybe he folds.

Here's the other thing about that check on the turn.

I am going to try and explain something here which will sound weird, but I have noticed it a couple of times recently. About once a cash session it seems to happen. I will be in a hand, engrossed, often at a key point, and the action will come to me. And involuntarily, without even thinking, I check. And then, instantly, I want to punch myself in the face. I'm like "why have I checked?" But it's done then, and we go to the next street/action. This was one of those moments. The turn card fell, he checked, dealer pointed at me, and I insta-checked. Didn't think about the extra/only outs I now had, just checked.

And yet when I think, I can think at a (moderately) high level. I obviously could be wrong here and actually be a total fish in this game, but I am pretty sure that isn't the case. I'm not playing scared money, I'm not drinking at the table, I rarely have music on. And yet this happens. I can only put it down to a very brief lapse in concentration, but I wish it wouldn't happen in such big pots.

Anyway, he dwelled, didn't like it, but then sigh called with.....

 

[ruud]

.sisylana dnah esrever ruoy htiw og ot txet desrever emos evah ,daetsni oS  .tuoba kniht neve dluoc I naht boj retteb raf a did evaD tub ,uoy rof sisylana dnah tnegilletni na etirw ot gniog saw I

LOL

that's a palindrome you know

[SuuPRlim]

OH.

You get 3bet pre-flop, I had totally missed that. Kinda makes all my analysis a little worthless lol.

most of thetheoryremains correct though I think. In terms of practical application, playing the hand the way you did then checking the river, is not a BAD way to play the hand really.