Preflop spot vs good aggro player

[muckthenuts]

Villain is a highly competent online player playing stakes/players much below what he is used to (he's regging 500nl zoom atm i believe). Despite this he has a very professional attitude to the game and is taking it seriously. Throughout the night he's been very aggressive, crushed the game and is playing with a lot of confidence. I'll be perceived as having been pretty tight all night.

5 handed towards the end of the day he is opening 90% of pots. He opens utg to £7.
Huuuuuuge fish flats (£300)
I flat 77 otb (£360 eff)

Typical short stack casino degen shoves for £28 (he arrived on the table with £50 a couple orbits before, done some peeling and folding)  

Comes back to villain who thinks shortly then makes it £66.
Folds back to me.

Wug?

[MC]

Folding looks good to me

Edit: Actually though, Villain could be doing this with most of his range, so I'm sure shoving will show a profit.

But we basically always have this specific hand, and we've only invested £7 so taking the lower variance route of folding seems fine

[mulhuzz]

Villain prolly perceives that we can't rep much if we raise so could be doing this with a plan to get the barrells or the 5bets out if we raise additionally he 'should' be tighter than usual because playing pot with fish not the worst thing in world even though if he and fish calls £28 you almost always so he has to have a some equity hand given he's also going to showdown.

I don't think this is that much of a spot tbh, we rep nothing by raising, aren't deep enough to set mine, gl us winning this pot without having to call down on K93r etc.

Just fold.

edit: fuck me that's cluttered thoughts: cliffs what MC said -- rep nothing, villain is prolly 3b/5bing (assuming there's any hand or size that we might 4b but not shove) or planning to barrel. gl us. fold now and give him £7.

[Mondeoman]

It prob is a profitable re-shove spot - it all depends on what % of hands villain is opening.  I know you said 90% and if this is the case its a fist pump jam.  I'd say if he's opening greater than 30% of hands its a profitable jam.
This is based on the assumption that any hand he is opening he is isoing with.  I know if i was in villains spot i would isolate with any hand i'm opening here.

In a way it doesn't matter that you are not repping much the fact is unless villain has a good hand he can't call you.  The only hand you are really in trouble against are pocket pairs 88+ -- this represents about 3% of starting hands - if he really is opening 90% of hands then you're not going to get called very often and be in big trouble.
He's going to have to fold a lot and when you are called you'll have around 40% equity.
Live tells would be useful here i.e if he has a monster he has a genuine decision and will prob spend a few seconds considering flatting to keep the whale in where as if he has just a random hand i'd imagine he'd isolate quicker.

Its probably a profitable play but a pretty high variance one - depends if you want the gamble.

[SuuPRlim]

I think you wanna be getting it in here, too weak not too imo plus makes you tougher to play against if you're not gonna side with the low variance route in clearly profitable but higher variance spots, dissuades people from taking liberty's against you and trying to isolate you out of pots.

I'm well aware you can just fold here in a vacuum and everyone will think you have K9o but that's not really the point.

I would imagine he prolly ISN'T opening top 90%, but will be ridic wide like 60-70% and he'll be iso'ing with at LEAST 80% of that which is basically half the hands possible, so it's certainly profitable, doesn't really matter that he'll be calling pretty well either as the maths is gonna be pretty strongly in your favor, if he is going to make mistakes he'll prolly make the mistake of FOLDING a lil tighter so once in a blue moon he might let 88 etc.

[JustinSayne]

FWIW if I am villian, I am flatting the 28 with QQ+ to keep the fish in.

If he really is good he will be 4b iso raising a wide enough range and potentially flatting his super nut hands.

So GL, flick it iiiiiiiiiin