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Poker Hand Analysis
Turn spot.
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Topic: Turn spot. (Read 2412 times)
tight4better
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1019
Turn spot.
«
on:
April 11, 2013, 03:07:24 AM »
1/1 at DTD, I have a ridiculously LAG image through first few orbits and table have noticed. Table is very passive, lots of multiway action.
I open
EP to £5.
6 callers
including villain OTB.
Villain is know it all, knows what you have after you show on river etc, I don't try anything OOL vs him unless he's very face up.
Flop (£40)
Checks around.
Turn (£40)
Checks to me I lead for £20, he thinks for 1 minute+, counts how much he has, then slowly slides stack over line which totals £80, I cover him. He's relaxed but looks v weak as I'm giving him the stare.
Feels like he can have a lot of
X hands, and
etc? But if he's jammed a small flush can I call off here with 11 outs once?
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mulhuzz
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3016
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #1 on:
April 11, 2013, 10:30:34 AM »
with your image I'm very happy to call this off.
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Pinchop73
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1435
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #2 on:
April 11, 2013, 11:48:54 AM »
Bet flop. Fold now.
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First they came for the nits, and I did not speak out because I was not a nit
edgascoigne
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2144
Newbury Racecourse's Best Dressed Gent. And What?
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #3 on:
April 11, 2013, 11:54:03 AM »
He's moved AI right? (OP not perfectly clear)
If so I'm calling - he's going to have to show me a winner, and that winner's going to have to stay the winner.
«
Last Edit: April 11, 2013, 12:22:32 PM by edgascoigne
»
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Allez!!
tight4better
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1019
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #4 on:
April 11, 2013, 01:36:26 PM »
Yeah he's moved in. Betting flop sounds hilariously bad 6 ways with my image.
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ruud
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 765
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #5 on:
April 11, 2013, 01:52:57 PM »
Agree betting the flop seems ludicrous.
If he definitely has a made small flush, then no you are not getting the right odds, but surely you know this?
£60 to win £140, we need 42% equity, but we have about 25%? against a small flush (not counting the fact that he may already have the nuts).
I guess he can have a bare
and we are happy to try and dodge 8 outs.
If he has a monstrous hand like
what would he do here?
I expect to see either a hand like
or a made flush most of the time here, think he has enough bare
in his range for us get it in. Not thrilled about it though.
(disclaimer: I have not made my point very well here, but I cba to fix it)
cliffs: call
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Pinchop73
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1435
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #6 on:
April 11, 2013, 03:21:46 PM »
You've descibed it as a weak passive £1/1 dtd game, with Hero's image stated as lag.
At 1/1 ime, you just bet for value. With this image you'll get called by, lower pocket pairs, hearts, open enders etc, lots of hands your beating. Why open KJo from ep if your not going to bet when you hit a reasonable flop?
If you get raised on a flushing board at 1/1 then ime you can happily just fold as your either easily behind, or up against a big draw. You can't win every pot.
For this particular hand, someone described as half dece has jammed the last of his moneys in to the pot with little fold equity over the top of somebody who hardly ever gets ool vs him. Have I described this situation correctly?
I mean if he's jammed the bare Ah then god bless him, but if he has then I would say the original read of him is a little incorrect. If he can hand read decently as you've sub communicated, then he's going to know you have a very decent hand when you bet this turn, so much so that it would be optimistic to believe he jams worse than top 2pr.
With regards to calling it off knowing he has a flush. Please.
«
Last Edit: April 11, 2013, 03:26:17 PM by Pinchop73
»
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First they came for the nits, and I did not speak out because I was not a nit
ruud
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 765
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #7 on:
April 11, 2013, 04:08:52 PM »
I had some time, so I did some Maths.....
look how wide I have made his range to give you 50% equity:
4,268 games 0.001 secs 4,268,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.422% 49.53% 00.89% 2114 38.00 { KsJh }
Hand 1: 49.578% 48.69% 00.89% 2078 38.00 { AA, KcKd, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs, JcJd, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, 2c2d, 2c2s, 2d2s, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, AhKc, AhKd, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AcTh, AdTh, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, AsTh, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah7c, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah6c, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah5c, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah4c, Ah4d, Ah4s, Ah3c, Ah3d, Ah3s, Ah2c, Ah2d, Ah2s, KcQd, KcQs, KdQc, KdQs, KcJd, KdJc, KcTh, KdTh, KsTh, QcJd, QdJc, QsJc, QsJd, QcTh, QdTh, QsTh, JcTh, JdTh, JsTh }
Basically almost all suited combos possible, all sets possible, two pair, 10s with the
, AA, all bare
and all made nut flushes.
Guess it depends how much of this you think is actually in his range?
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tight4better
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1019
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #8 on:
April 11, 2013, 04:13:45 PM »
Quote from: Pinchop73 on April 30, 1974, 04:50:10 PM
For this particular hand, someone described as half dece has jammed the last of his moneys in to the pot with little fold equity over the top of somebody who hardly ever gets ool vs him. Have I described this situation correctly?
I mean if he's jammed the bare Ah then god bless him, but if he has then I would say the original read of him is a little incorrect. If he can hand read decently as you've sub communicated, then he's going to know you have a very decent hand when you bet this turn, so much so that it would be optimistic to believe he jams worse than top 2pr.
With regards to calling it off knowing he has a flush. Please.
Lol, I never described him as half decent. Let me describe villain a little better, if I cold5bjam
and get called, and end up winning, he'll say he put me on
. He's Mr 20/20, knows all the right moves when the cards are turned up.
In other words, he's fucking terrible.
Soz if I offend anyone by this tapping the glass post.
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ruud
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 765
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #9 on:
April 11, 2013, 04:26:21 PM »
Quote from: tight4better on April 11, 2013, 04:13:45 PM
Quote from: Pinchop73 on April 30, 1974, 04:50:10 PM
For this particular hand, someone described as half dece has jammed the last of his moneys in to the pot with little fold equity over the top of somebody who hardly ever gets ool vs him. Have I described this situation correctly?
I mean if he's jammed the bare Ah then god bless him, but if he has then I would say the original read of him is a little incorrect. If he can hand read decently as you've sub communicated, then he's going to know you have a very decent hand when you bet this turn, so much so that it would be optimistic to believe he jams worse than top 2pr.
With regards to calling it off knowing he has a flush. Please.
Lol, I never described him as half decent. Let me describe villain a little better, if I cold5bjam
and get called, and end up winning, he'll say he put me on
. He's Mr 20/20, knows all the right moves when the cards are turned up.
In other words, he's fucking terrible.
Soz if I offend anyone by this tapping the glass post.
THEN I THINK YOU CAN CALL KNOWING THAT MY RANGE IS PRETTY ACCURATE!!
Sorry for shouting
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cambridgealex
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 14799
#lovethegame
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #10 on:
April 11, 2013, 05:32:32 PM »
He has you beat imo. AT most likely or a flush.
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stato_1
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: leet
#Team_Eureka
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #11 on:
April 11, 2013, 06:18:45 PM »
Hmmm. Why are we looking for 50% equity? Done quickly in my head we need 31-32% to call here. Seeing as we have about 25% vs a made small flush and given he can have a bunch of other stuff too makes this a pretty clear call imo.
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Sulphur man
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 602
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #12 on:
April 11, 2013, 06:59:27 PM »
Quote from: tight4better on April 11, 2013, 04:13:45 PM
Quote from: Pinchop73 on April 30, 1974, 04:50:10 PM
For this particular hand, someone described as half dece has jammed the last of his moneys in to the pot with little fold equity over the top of somebody who hardly ever gets ool vs him. Have I described this situation correctly?
I mean if he's jammed the bare Ah then god bless him, but if he has then I would say the original read of him is a little incorrect. If he can hand read decently as you've sub communicated, then he's going to know you have a very decent hand when you bet this turn, so much so that it would be optimistic to believe he jams worse than top 2pr.
With regards to calling it off knowing he has a flush. Please.
Lol, I never described him as half decent. Let me describe villain a little better, if I cold5bjam
and get called, and end up winning, he'll say he put me on
. He's Mr 20/20, knows all the right moves when the cards are turned up.
In other words, he's fucking terrible.
Soz if I offend anyone by this tapping the glass post.
Wonder if its the same guy who was telling me "there are 100,000 players better than Trickett"
"He plays cash and only good as he is backed" Popped my cap.
Logged
I've never played any game, or done anything that was so powerful at making you believe that you 'owned' it... before making you realize that you actually don't.
ruud
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 765
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #13 on:
April 11, 2013, 07:19:22 PM »
Quote from: stato_1 on April 11, 2013, 06:18:45 PM
Hmmm. Why are we looking for 50% equity? Done quickly in my head we need 31-32% to call here. Seeing as we have about 25% vs a made small flush and given he can have a bunch of other stuff too makes this a pretty clear call imo.
isn't it 42ish%? This could be embarrassing for me, two number whizzes itt....
Nik says there is 40 in the pot before we bet 20, villain makes it 80....
so now we are calling 60 to win 140 ie. three sevenths or 0.428
I was just saying that 17% is a lot to make up (you are right, we have 25% versus a made non-nut flush), but by including everything I could think of him possibly having in stoving a range, we can actually get as high as 50% equity..... meaning CALL
please let my maths be right
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stato_1
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: leet
#Team_Eureka
Re: Turn spot.
«
Reply #14 on:
April 11, 2013, 08:06:15 PM »
were calling 60 to win 200 (or 190 by my calculations given pre flop). We get the % of our call back too...
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