MC Nut Turn Card

[millidonk]

I probs fold pre, but I call now.

[pleno1]

I think my image was at the time, 1 big bluff, 4 3bets and a couple of steals in around 3.5 orbits but I may be wrong. It was definitely v ool.

[Doobs]

Guess I just sigh fold here. I mean we're never in awful shape... and we're deffo ahead 25-40% of the time imo (obv thats a big spread, but wtf is his range).

Think I fold a pretty decent % pre here, never 3-bet, Pleno is someone i'd probably be less inclined to peel vs 28bb eff, 35 i'd be loving life and flicking in the call, but i'm sure it's still fine.

If you think you're ahead 25-40% of the time, it's an absurdly easy call, isn't it?

38 to win 52, so you need to be 42% to call it off?  That makes it an easy fold.  Pleno should know he can have a lot of bluffs in his range with that overbet though.  I think I still fold, because whenever I start thinking like this and call they have exactly the nut straight.

[TL900]

Ignoring Pleno's range for the time being... what is your range for getting to the turn?

A2-A7s 76s-7Ts 86s-8Js bunch of diamond combos 9T, 56s, KQ/KJ i might peel one off too

[outragous76]

The problem with calling off here, is even taking an A holdings out of his range, most of his combos have us beat too

If he shows up with something daft we do beat like qjdd  we still gotta fade.

It's a fold now

[lucky_scrote]

I don't know pleno but it's quite an odd jam. Since you were playing with what do you really think his range of hands are? An overbet here just doesn't make much sense to me.

[pleno1]

also, what do we think Toms calling range should be?

[Honeybadger]

Ignoring Pleno's range for the time being... what is your range for getting to the turn?

A2-A7s 76s-7Ts 86s-8Js bunch of diamond combos 9T, 56s, KQ/KJ i might peel one off too

Ok... I will flopzillanalyse it later tonight when the kids are in bed and solve for exactly what combos you have to call with on the turn GTO-wise. When you get that answer you know 'where the line is' so to speak, and then you can adjust exploitatively from that line according to any reads you may have on Patrick. Best to know where the line is first though, before we try to adjust.

If it turns out that you have to defend xyz combos against his jam to prevent him jamming 100% of his range but z part of these combos have less than 42% equity vs a very wide jamming range then you have almost certainly made an error on an earlier street (i.e. preflop or on the flop).

[Boba Fett]

Well I think Pleno never has air.  I think most of the time he will show up with either 1 pair hands like Ax, 8x with some sort of draw like 89dd/T8dd or the broadway flush draws.

I think you mostly show up here with weak 1 pairs and/or draws and you are gonna crai the turn with lots of that range.  If that is pleno's read (and its possible Im reading the whole situation completely wrong) then an overbet shove shuts you down with all your draws and might bluff you off all your weak 1 pairs.  If you do show up with some sort of 2 pair hand here Id assume pleno has some equity against those.

So with that, I think its a fold.  He has just priced you out.

[outragous76]

Well I think Pleno never has air.  I think most of the time he will show up with either 1 pair hands like Ax, 8x with some sort of draw like 89dd/T8dd or the broadway flush draws.

I think you mostly show up here with weak 1 pairs and/or draws and you are gonna crai the turn with lots of that range.  If that is pleno's read (and its possible Im reading the whole situation completely wrong) then an overbet shove shuts you down with all your draws and might bluff you off all your weak 1 pairs.  If you do show up with some sort of 2 pair hand here Id assume pleno has some equity against those.

So with that, I think its a fold.  He has just priced you out.

bingo

[Patonius2000]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   3,212  games     0.001 secs     3,212,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    60.507%     58.44%    02.07%              1877           66.50   { 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, A9s, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd5d, Jc9c, Jd9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Td6d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9h5h, 9s5s, 86s+, 76s, 5h4h, 5s4s, A9o, A6o, 9c5d, 9c5h, 9c5s, 9d5h, 9d5s, 9h5s, 86o+, 76o, 5c4d, 5c4h, 5c4s, 5d4h, 5d4s, 5h4s }
Hand 1:    39.493%     37.42%    02.07%              1202           66.50   { 9c7c }

Don't know what you guys think about that range but we need 42% to call ott. I can tweak it one way to give us like 45% and another to give us 38%. It's really close, couldn't fault a call with any semblance of a live read. I'l let you guys discuss whether you want to gamble your 'tournament life' or not.

edited; stove sucked and contained KsQs

[lucky_scrote]

I really want to know what OP percieves plenos range as. He should never have Ax because this jam makes all worse hands fold. Obviously if you had some kind of strong hand you'd bet a normal amount and hope that (just like you said you were going to) you can get the bb to jam.

Unfortunately if you take out all the Ax hands then it's a fold because it's the Ax hands that puts your % of winning up vs his range. For argument sake vs AK you are 45% to win whereas vs 98o you are just 32% to win.

[Mondeoman]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   3,212  games     0.001 secs     3,212,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    60.507%     58.44%    02.07%              1877           66.50   { 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, A9s, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd5d, Jc9c, Jd9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Td6d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9h5h, 9s5s, 86s+, 76s, 5h4h, 5s4s, A9o, A6o, 9c5d, 9c5h, 9c5s, 9d5h, 9d5s, 9h5s, 86o+, 76o, 5c4d, 5c4h, 5c4s, 5d4h, 5d4s, 5h4s }
Hand 1:    39.493%     37.42%    02.07%              1202           66.50   { 9c7c }

Don't know what you guys think about that range but we need 42% to call ott. I can tweak it one way to give us like 45% and another to give us 38%. It's really close, couldn't fault a call with any semblance of a live read. I'l let you guys discuss whether you want to gamble your 'tournament life' or not.

edited; stove sucked and contained KsQs

Id be surprised if he's shoving the nutted hands ie straights and sets.  Imagine his hand is a strong one pair hand looking to get a hero call or a big draw with no showdown value.  So call and outdraw aq would be my advice.

[Patonius2000]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   3,212  games     0.001 secs     3,212,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    60.507%     58.44%    02.07%              1877           66.50   { 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, A9s, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd5d, Jc9c, Jd9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Td6d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9h5h, 9s5s, 86s+, 76s, 5h4h, 5s4s, A9o, A6o, 9c5d, 9c5h, 9c5s, 9d5h, 9d5s, 9h5s, 86o+, 76o, 5c4d, 5c4h, 5c4s, 5d4h, 5d4s, 5h4s }
Hand 1:    39.493%     37.42%    02.07%              1202           66.50   { 9c7c }

Don't know what you guys think about that range but we need 42% to call ott. I can tweak it one way to give us like 45% and another to give us 38%. It's really close, couldn't fault a call with any semblance of a live read. I'l let you guys discuss whether you want to gamble your 'tournament life' or not.

edited; stove sucked and contained KsQs

Id be surprised if he's shoving the nutted hands ie straights and sets.  Imagine his hand is a strong one pair hand looking to get a hero call or a big draw with no showdown value.  So call and outdraw aq would be my advice.

I agree and removed about 1/2 of the set combos and 2/3 of his offsuit straight combos & straight+fd combos. But assuming he never jams those and vs an A heavy range and including some draws we dominate;


   5,280  games     0.001 secs     5,280,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    40.511%     39.26%    01.25%              2073           66.00   { 9c7c }
Hand 1:    59.489%     58.24%    01.25%              3075           66.00   { 99, A5s+, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Tc8c, Td8d, Tc7c, 98s, 9d7d, 9d6d, 8d5d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5c3c, 5d3d, 5h3h, A5o+, 98o }

I'm pretty hard pushed to find a range we have a +cev call vs. I think the problem is that a lot of his draws crush us. If we have T8cc I'd like a call a lot more. And I did say I'd leave it to the tourny guys but surely we're not that chuffed about making a breakeven call in this situation. Vs AQ we got 43%.

[SuuPRlim]

If it turns out that you have to defend xyz combos against his jam to prevent him jamming 100% of his range but z part of these combos have less than 42% equity vs a very wide jamming range then you have almost certainly made an error on an earlier street (i.e. preflop or on the flop).

THIS. I think folding pre-flop is best. 3betting is bad peeling is fine but I think folding is marginally better.

Also, responding to guy's post with "rofl" comes across as very arrogant, and I know you're not arrogant so just letting you know