Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?

[cambridgealex]

French 100euro freezeout, we are 5 handed atm.

Seat 2: teps (19235)
Seat 3: clem2511 (18610)
Seat 4: Sr Croissant (19875)
Seat 5: OmeletteduFR (42180)
Seat 6: indypandas (21150)
*** ANTE/BLINDS ***
indypandas posts ante 25
teps posts ante 25
clem2511 posts ante 25
Sr Croissant posts ante 25
OmeletteduFR posts ante 25
indypandas posts small blind 150
teps posts big blind 300
Dealt to Sr Croissant [ ]
*** PRE-FLOP ***
clem2511 raises 300 to 600
Sr Croissant calls 600
OmeletteduFR calls 600
indypandas folds
teps calls 300
*** FLOP *** [ ]
teps checks
clem2511 bets 1335
Sr Croissant calls 1335
OmeletteduFR calls 1335
teps calls 1335
*** TURN *** [ ]

teps checks clem2511 checks Sr Croissant bets 4555 OmeletteduFR folds teps folds clem2511 calls 4555 *** RIVER *** [ ][] clem2511 checks Sr Croissant?? Pot is 17k, we have 13k back, villain has 12k. Villian is unknown to us, but a good reg apparently.

[pleno1]

I would go ahead and raise flop here, there are bad cards for our action, and he is cbetting into 2 people on a board that smashes their range + his sizing is pretty big. He can come along with a lot of weak (relatively) hands.

As played, turn obviously standard.

On the river I would go ahead and jam, I expect him to just keep betting his full houses on the turn 3 ways as you guys are going to check back a bunch. I don't think he c/calls many fds on the turn so doesn't change much except for the fact it minimizes our bluff combos, but I still think we are usually freerolling by jamming the river, especially with the As.

[TL900]

5k/fold i think. he will convince himself we have KQ and flick it in with AA enough

[rfgqqabc]

How good is good?

5k/fold is super sweet and something I hadn't really considered. I always hate myself when I bet 5k they jam and I end up calling. This gives us some absurd pot odds to be getting. I'm trying to figure out a hand he can call us with that is worse tbh, JT? I'm not really worried about a flush but he must check KK/QQ a bunch surely? It allows random hands to stab and gives them a street to get there.
 

[pleno1]

i'd fold aa to 5k more than 13 i think.

[TL900]

i'd fold aa to 5k more than 13 i think.

but this guy was unknown, so assume bad until proven otherwise no?

[pleno1]

op says he is good i think.

Vs fish then i like 5800

[cambridgealex]

He was unknown to me at the time.

[pleno1]

then i like 4-6k

[pleno1]

Theres pretty similar spot in a video i watched today actually, will make a thread.

[Evilpengwinz]

I would go ahead and raise flop here, there are bad cards for our action, and he is cbetting into 2 people on a board that smashes their range + his sizing is pretty big. He can come along with a lot of weak (relatively) hands.

As played, turn obviously standard.

On the river I would go ahead and jam, I expect him to just keep betting his full houses on the turn 3 ways as you guys are going to check back a bunch. I don't think he c/calls many fds on the turn so doesn't change much except for the fact it minimizes our bluff combos, but I still think we are usually freerolling by jamming the river, especially with the As.

I prefer raising the flop too for the same reason as you.

[EvilPie]

Check back seems absolutely fine to me on this board.

The bet/fold river line is getting a bit old now so there's too high a risk of a 'good' player seeing through it and sticking a bluff in your eye.

Low variance line ftw in this spot.

[DMorgan]

+1 to raise flop, I think when he cbets here he almost always has enough equity to continue vs a raise and it's a board that I don't see us inducing many bluffs on by flatting the flop.

As played I jam now, you actually rep somewhat thin since you'd 3b KK/JJ pretty much always and TT a good amount pre and with the dead that cuts out a lot of your spade combos that would peel pre. I agree with pleno that there's really no reason for him not to barrel his houses.

[Ant040689]

Yup raising flop for reasons already explained seems the best idea to me.

Turn as played seems fine.

I normally miss value by checking the river, but it is hard to tell cold what i would have done with the flow of the game. Has he full housed or flushed? Would he value bet out those hands on the river? Tough with the stack sizes. He may have assumed you were always going to jam it in so may be dealing with a monster, or thinks perhaps that he only wants to check call with KJ or AK which seem plausible. The latter seems more plausible for the fact he check called the turn and is seemingly containing the pot.

May also be doing this with a 10. A10 maybe.

Does a jam on the river reduce our value because we are repping a flush and possibly getting him off trips/top pair?

[youthnkzR]

100% raising this flop. Jam river as we have the best hand nearly always.