Sandwiched between Mitch and Kurt - not a comfy spot!

[cambridgealex]

Live £1/2 cash at DTD. Game is very deep, stacks involved are all ~£1500. Kurt a bit less. Think we are 6handed, and the £8 straddle is on.

I am SB, Kurt is £4 straddle, Mitch is £8 straddle.

Folds to me, I raise to £36, Kurt calls, Mitch makes it £110. (This exact same thing happened either last orbit or the orbit before, I folded, Kurt defended and won the pot with a river bet. Was evident Mitch had a non premium, the scallywag). This in no way means he's more or less likely to be value heavy this time, could go either way.

Anyway, I call, Kurt calls after a 10 second think.

(£332)

I check, Kurt checks, Mitch bets £150, I call, Kurt.

(£782)

I check, Kurt checks, Mitch checks. Both take about 5 seconds.

(£782)

I check, Kurt checks, Mitch thinks/waits for 10 seconds and announces allin, for about £1200, we're playing about the same.

WHY U DO DIS

[cambridgealex]

Do people open bigger pre btw super deep OOP vs three loose players (Tom Walster is the other player, in the bb)

[rfgqqabc]

£42? I guess your opening tight, so bigger is better, costs Mitch more when his antics fail. Dunno 36 feels in the right area.

Mitch can't really know how strong our hand is here? Feels a bit underepped, it feels like its v.hard for anyone to call this and therefore probably a bluff, but do you have any history here? He can't jam worse for value? I'm presuming Mitch thinks we are the only ones who can call here as Kurt can't really have it. I don't see how we fold with the ace blocker /jack but its gross

[jgcblack]

£42? I guess your opening tight, so bigger is better, costs Mitch more when his antics fail. Dunno 36 feels in the right area.

Mitch can't really know how strong our hand is here? Feels a bit underepped, it feels like its v.hard for anyone to call this and therefore probably a bluff, but do you have any history here? He can't jam worse for value? I'm presuming Mitch thinks we are the only ones who can call here as Kurt can't really have it. I don't see how we fold with the ace blocker /jack but its gross

I understand what you mean but also seems like a bad bluff spot/ sizing... No?

[tight4better]

He really never value bets worse? Could totally see him playing KK/QQ/JJ the same way? I know we block JJ but KK/QQ seems conceivable?

I know it's a small value range but I do think you beat some value shoves.

WHY U DO DIS

 

[rfgqqabc]

1200 to win 1982= 60% equity needed

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,050,410  games     0.558 secs     1,882,455  games/sec

Board: Ah
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    42.864%     42.86%    00.00%            450251            0.00   { AdJd }
Hand 1:    57.136%     57.14%    00.00%            600159            0.00   { KK, AQo+ }

I don't see him valuebetting KK/QQ/JJ to this size as we need to call with worse/a house without an A. If Mitch jams QQ we need to call with a ten for him to win? Doesn't seem too likely.
Still feel like I'm calling, jamming an ace as a bluff seems silly but if we are folding AJ and can't have AK very often then we are folding heaps.

[mulhuzz]

any chance he's turning Tx or KQ into a bluff?

[skolsuper]

1200 to win 1982= 60% equity needed

You keep doing this wrong.

Re: the hand, personally I'm not folding vs Mitch cos he's so bad, probs thinks he's going for thin value with a ten or something.

[DMorgan]

I think its a call, pretty tough for this to be value with the sizing, seems very optimistic to jam QQ/KK here hoping to be called by Ax/Tx. Much more likely imo that he has a hand that doesn't win at showdown but he knows a jam will likely fold out Tx which both you and Kurt can have. I think he'd probably also expect aces full to lead river to get value from Tx so you're really under-repped.

well induced vs villain in question imo

[Honeybadger]

1200 to win 1982= 60% equity needed

You keep doing this wrong.

Yes, you need to learn the right way of working this out. It is easy. You actually have the 'right formula', but you just need to add a 1- to it. In other words hero requires ~40% equity (although there are other factors to consider such as the small possibility that Kurt has hero beaten).

Often, just checking your answer using a 'beginners mistake rule' can alert you that you have made an error. In this case the 'beginners mistake rule' check would flash a warning light because your answer says you need more than 50% equity. This is NEVER EVER the case. And if you think about it logically you will realise why. If you ever get to an answer which says you need more than 50% equity to call a river (or all-in) bet then you must have made a mistake. If have 50% equity then you ALWAYS have a profitable call, regardless of the size of the overbet.

Note that this only applies to river bets or all-in bets on earlier streets. If facing a flop bet you can't just estimate that you have x% equity and thus call... because your opponent can bet the turn and river too.

[EvilPie]

Meh if we lose but I can't ever fold vs Mitch.

Wouldn't be wasting too much brain power with a hand that ranks in top three of all the hands available.

[rfgqqabc]

1200 to win 1982= 60% equity needed

You keep doing this wrong.

Yes, you need to learn the right way of working this out. It is easy. You actually have the 'right formula', but you just need to add a 1- to it. In other words hero requires ~40% equity (although there are other factors to consider such as the small possibility that Kurt has hero beaten).

Often, just checking your answer using a 'beginners mistake rule' can alert you that you have made an error. In this case the 'beginners mistake rule' check would flash a warning light because your answer says you need more than 50% equity. This is NEVER EVER the case. And if you think about it logically you will realise why. If you ever get to an answer which says you need more than 50% equity to call a river (or all-in) bet then you must have made a mistake. If have 50% equity then you ALWAYS have a profitable call, regardless of the size of the overbet.

Note that this only applies to river bets or all-in bets on earlier streets. If facing a flop bet you can't just estimate that you have x% equity and thus call... because your opponent can bet the turn and river too.

I'm a total fish, I had an excel table with all this set up somewhere to stop silly errors. Inexcusable. Had already gone to google as a punishment.

[Pugwashed]

Seems like we have AQ/AJ fairly often. I think value betting JJ-KK on the river would be a mistake from his point of view. Might come down to what you expect him to do with AQ pre (3b or flat?). Seems like a call, hoping he turns something into a bluff or makes a mistake by trying to value bet worse full houses but I'm not calling any worse, especially with a player left to act behind and given that AQ/AJ seem to make up a big chunk of our range

[Honeybadger]

Meh if we lose but I can't ever fold vs Mitch.

Wouldn't be wasting too much brain power with a hand that ranks in top three of all the hands available.

Yeah but it's actually not quite that simple. Because is Mitch ever value jamming worse than AJ in this hand? Do you really think a good player (or Mitch) is value jamming KK, QQ, JJ, a straight or an Ax hand, expecting to be good more than half the time when called? He may be doing so of course, but it is certainly not quite as simple as just "oh we have a really good hand, and it is versus Mitch... I call". Obviously he may well be bluffing too - unless he has changed his game recently, Mitch has a penchant for trying to rep very narrow ranges.

I haven't looked at this in detail, but I think this is a very close spot (hence why Alex posted it). I'm probably calling here because I have seen Mitch do silly things at times, trying to rep narrow ranges when bluffing in particular. However, I'd be calling expecting to lose more often than I won... but still hoping to win a little over 40% of the time.

Of course, given that it is a close spot, it does not really matter too much what hero does either way. That's the thing with close spots.

[Honeybadger]

Oh... and I made a HUGE mistake in my response to Adam. Which is extremely embarrassing lol. I blame the fact that I have two screaming kids in the room with me at the moment which automatically lowers my IQ/concentration levels by about 50%

Not going to edit my post because I deserve to be humiliated

Can anyone (other than Keys, who obviously will spot it instantly and lol at me) spot the mistake? It is glaring!