I found a JB! (he thought that i thought that he thought that i thought that...

[pleno1]

he bet 2x pot otf??

folding 2 3 and 5?

[pleno1]

squeeze jj and ak pre obv.

[pleno1]

ill just go bore neverscaredb over at 2p2 in future haha, sorry just playing less tables and thinking about closeish spots that i dont wanna put down to std, didnt realise ppl got annoyed at it etc.

[jgcblack]

I have no idea what you want me to say?

You appear to be asking is there anything different you can do other than check calling 2x pot on J77 flop with JTss 89ss Akss and betting 1.5x the river on a 9x3x runout?

In answer yes. There is a lot of different things you can do

obviously.. but with that range of my hands, we have two pretty nutted ones, one that can 'turn' a lot of equity and a medium strength hand that should be able to be 'good' a lot on this board....

He is bluffing somewhere between 0% and 100% of the time. If you are readless then can only go on what you know, ie stakes, location, population tendancies of both of those and add into the fact he has taken a non orthodox line of betting 2x pot. Then you derive a figure. Add this figure to the % of times your hand beats his value shoving range that you beat, ie when we have JJ we beat some hands, he doesnt just have 77. If its higher than 13.5% then call, if its not fold. It really isnt hard.

That part isn't hard if i were good at constructing ranges with which to work out the following...
Clearly we should be able to be 'good' here with the A7/ JJ more than enough to be ahead and quickly press call.

What I was struggling with is working out the JT/ 89 river calls.

I started by giving him a flop range of
AJ, QQ+, all 7x, T8, T9, 22-66, a couple of complete airballs and a couple of Ax bkdrfd hands.


Develop this on the turn by dropping out some of the overpairs as I don't think he would check them back 100%.
Then take out some of the T8 as he surely would bet some on the turn
Take out a couple of the small pair combos - he tried once to 'buy it' and that didn't work


And on the river take out all the 1p hands as he would either call or fold imo

which leaves a river range of 7x, some T8, some T9, and an unidentifiable amount of complete bricked air... potentially even Ax/ Kxdd hands because of the turn check back (didn't want to get blown off his hand)


Make sense?

[jgcblack]

We have either   or   .

How different are they?

[pleno1]

wtf u think he ebts 2x pot with 22?

[jgcblack]

wtf u think he ebts 2x pot with 22?

i think its tough to have a value range on this board... and that some people will mash the bet button with the weak pairs because they don't know what to do with it.

(notice in this thread i said I struggle with coming up with 'good' ranges in these spots)

All i do know is its tough to have a good hand you want to be $9 with and want to get called here.


We can see a lot of turns that help us out, was willing to re-evaluate.

[pleno1]

Sorry for the lack of quality in this post but I woke up to tell you i think this is your greatest.

[jgcblack]

Sorry for the lack of quality in this post but I woke up to tell you i think this is your greatest.

huh?

I said I struggle to come up with ranges in these kinda spots...

Can you tell me what you think he has when he bets 2x pot on J77?

[SuuPRlim]

we never have AK or JJ cos we always squeeze them PF and PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE dont tell me we dont cos we just do!

I think shoving is better than overbetting with all those hand as I don't see how we can fold any of them to a jam, except 89 possibly, but i assume we're bluffing with 89 when we  overbet the river?

I think just chk/folding 89 (calling from time to time if you wanna be a huge sherrif) value betting JT and A7 regularly is a better play than overbetting I dont think this is a gd spot to overbet, given how weak his range is.

JT and 89 ARE slightly different as i think he could be bluffing with a better 9 some % of the time, he can't call this bet with a 9.

[jgcblack]

we never have AK or JJ cos we always squeeze them PF and PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE dont tell me we dont cos we just do!

I think shoving is better than overbetting with all those hand as I don't see how we can fold any of them to a jam, except 89 possibly, but i assume we're bluffing with 89 when we  overbet the river?

I think just chk/folding 89 (calling from time to time if you wanna be a huge sherrif) value betting JT and A7 regularly is a better play than overbetting I dont think this is a gd spot to overbet, given how weak his range is.

JT and 89 ARE slightly different as i think he could be bluffing with a better 9 some % of the time, he can't call this bet with a 9.

This is the key part..

I would have put these two hands as the same/ similar, but in this hand they turn out to have a slight gulf between them.


When I bet and he shoved I lol'd and went back over the hand, I couldn't come up with anything that he has for value now that he checks turn with a reasonable %.
So, I quite quickly and happily called.

I was shown the and the .


But what I wanted to work out and apparently phrased it incorrectly was trying to work out a real range for someone to have here.
Obv his exact hand is in the 'air' part that I expected him to have... he actually has two pairs in the end.


But I just felt that the flop bet + this river action = JB style overthinking.

no?

[seven5sooted]

You've made this hand massively more complicated than in should be. When he bets 2x pot on flop, surely we are not calling 9 with 49.50 remaining for a gutty with  . So if we have  whats our plan if we flick in 18 bb's and then villian bets turn? You can easily be drawing nearly dead already on the flop, if a fish takes a crazy line it doesn't auto mean its a bluff he can have. Playing 50nl Zoom for me this would just be a snap fold on the flop unless we have  or  . Albeit your instinct was correct on this occasion I just think calling the flop bet with either hand in that spot is going to be -EV in the long run. There shouldn't be too much I thought he thought I thought he thought going on at 50nl. Keep it simple.

[jgcblack]

You've made this hand massively more complicated than in should be. When he bets 2x pot on flop, surely we are not calling 9 with 49.50 remaining for a gutty with  . So if we have  whats our plan if we flick in 18 bb's and then villian bets turn? You can easily be drawing nearly dead already on the flop, if a fish takes a crazy line it doesn't auto mean its a bluff he can have. Playing 50nl Zoom for me this would just be a snap fold on the flop unless we have  or  . Albeit your instinct was correct on this occasion I just think calling the flop bet with either hand in that spot is going to be -EV in the long run. There shouldn't be too much I thought he thought I thought he thought going on at 50nl. Keep it simple.

I agree with this.

I have seen some more 'regular' instances of big bets/ overbets with nutted hands in spots I wouldn't expect, however I have not as yet... ever seen someone do this otf with a value hand at 300k hands <50nl.

Normally people do things like:
- 3bt or 4bt shove 100bb's+ with AA
- call pre, cc, cc, donkshove for 4x pot on flushing river with nut flush
- min reraise preflop then bet pot+ on xxx with AA/ KK

So in this hand the flop decision is a frustrating one.... I don't 'lose' much by just folding flop, and I know that this is a really marginal hand... I 'happened' to be correct this time.  I don't know how often I would be correct in this spot in the future, but I also really have stopped most of my hero-ing and fps thinking at 50nl so far.

I've only attempted one big bluff in 10k hands so far - tried to bluff someone off AA/ KK with 5 cards that were all between 6 and a J on the board....
[ ] He folded.
LOL