NL10 standard or not on Skyp pre flop 6 handed

[Young_gun]

Not played cash for a while hence why im probably posting the most standard hand ever, but only bit not sure is pre flop..

2BB's posted
xx Posts BB + Checks
CO Raises to 30p
Button(Hero) Calls(£11.85 behind)   
SB Raises to £1.05 total (think he is tight from playing ages ago and some days can play a bit spewy)
CO calls 80p
I call 80p

^^^ is this all standard at present? SB has £9.70 behind and CO has about £5.30

Im not 3 betting pre as i am happy for a multiway pot with my hand in position, seems pretty standard here

Flop     
SB bets out £3.50 (£5.10 behind)
CO folds
Obv we shove and get called by SB who has AcKh

Post flop defo standard as we're never folding suprised they call but hey ho its good for us.

[rfgqqabc]

I don't mind the initial flat- if the co is much shorter, we should fold, 8T doesn't flop well enough but I imagine he is a weaker opponent. We can't call the 3bet. Stacks way too shallow behind.

Postflop clearly fine.

[Young_gun]

Would you still call preflop if the CO doesn't?

On the flop, I actually much prefer a fold

Probably, is that awful as we have implied odds and in position  

Suprised you fold flop, fd + gutshot pretty hard to fold. pretty nut flop for our hand (well its good)

Thanks for your comments x

[Young_gun]

I agree it probably should be a fold pre if CO doesnt call

regarding post flop you are correct we dont have ze odds really but i just cant fold that spot whoever its vs

[rfgqqabc]

Would you still call preflop if the CO doesn't?

On the flop, I actually much prefer a fold

Probably, is that awful as we have implied odds and in position  

Suprised you fold flop, fd + gutshot pretty hard to fold. pretty nut flop for our hand (well its good)

Thanks for your comments x

I don't mind preflop because of the presence of the CO. If the CO folded, then I would be inclined to fold also. It is a marginal hand, that doesn't flop well enough and as often enough as you would like to think.

Given that you think the SB is tight, as a presumption his 3-betting range will be something like AA-TT, AK and AQs. Which means on this flop, you are essentially playing a lone flush draw with no fold equity. If they will call all-in here with AK, which is likely the very bottom of their range on this flop, then I can't see them folding TT+ or AQ to a shove.
Because you aren't even getting close to the correct pot odds to call with a flush draw, you do need some fold equity to make this a profitable situation, which given the villains bet sizing and range on this flop, you won't be getting enough folds to continue imo.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  39,600  games     0.002 secs    19,800,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    50.256%     50.22%    00.03%             19888           13.50   { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1:    49.744%     49.71%    00.03%             19685           13.50   { Tc8c }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  27,720  games     0.001 secs    27,720,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    54.414%     54.37%    00.05%             15070           13.50   { TT+, AKs }
Hand 1:    45.586%     45.54%    00.05%             12623           13.50   { Tc8c }


---



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  23,760  games     0.000 secs     4,752,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    55.768%     55.71%    00.06%             13237           13.50   { TT+ }
Hand 1:    44.232%     44.18%    00.06%             10496           13.50   { Tc8c

8.60/(8.60+8.60+3.25)= 0.42

We have to call even if he shoves the flop. The stack to pot ratio is too small to consider folding

[pleno1]

Yeh dont think post flop is close tbh.

[jgcblack]

I agree with Melissa about the postflop situation - he just isn't going to fold anything he bets this big with, which does mean we need to realize we're getting no folds here.

However, as Adam pointed out we don't care if he ever folds here as we're a flip anyways and with the overlay of the money in the middle we actually make money by calling even if he just open shoves.

Don't think pre is a mistake, post clearly works.

50p brah

[rfgqqabc]

The point I am trying to make is that on this flop, against his range, we are always behind and we just have a flush draw, which is sometimes dominated

It is a large pot and worth winning, but I still think, even after seeing the numbers, it is actually break even/only slightly marginal +EV in the long term.

Do we always draw to a flush when we know we are behind and still not might be good to a pot size bet?

When its plus ev to do so. We have a gutshot as well by the way.

Your concerns are correct but they apply more to preflop, once we make a mistake we shouldn't make another mistake later on, this just compounds it. Plus, edges are small in online hold'em, and you might say but its only +2bb in ev, but we have a winrate of say 5bb/100, so missing out on +2bb decision because we are close to breakeven is incorrect. This is why BRM is so important in games with small edges.

[pleno1]

it doesnt matter which hands we are favourite against and which ones we arent, we just have to be a favourite against his range.

he ofc dont need anywhere near 50% for this to be a profitable call because of the dead money in the pot.

[rfgqqabc]

it doesnt matter which hands we are favourite against and which ones we arent, we just have to be a favourite against his range.

he ofc dont need anywhere near 50% for this to be a profitable call because of the dead money in the pot.

yeah, i put the AK in there cause that is what he has in this instance, however it is the bottom of his range. and we are 49% against his entire range, so still not a favourite.

I'm not arguing with you guys, i'm just finding this hard to understand. Maths is not my strongest subject, so hopefully one of you can clear this up.

So we have 49% equity vs TT+ AK and AQs. So this makes a call profitable because we are getting almost 2/1 pot odds and we only need about even money?
Obviously, we aren't just calling here, we are playing for stacks. If we shove though, we are now back to just having 49% equity, which in the long run doesn't make us any money if he is folding 0% of his range - this is the bit i am confused about?

Say we go hypothetical, and we "know" he will play the same. Assume the same flop, and pot size, but we are one billion bigs deep. In this case, we should fold, the x amount of big blinds in the pot doesn't cover the 1%, so we have to fold.

Imagine I said we have a number generator between 1-100. I say to you, we will flip for £50 I have odd and you have even, we add John Charles Black into this merry threesome, and he decides flips are fun to watch, so hurls £2 into the pot in his own delicate manner. We should flip as many times as we can if correctly rolled, as we each gain £1 in equity per flip.

The dead money in the pot means we never need 50% equity to call, despite the pot being hu.
P.S It would be possible for it to be +ev/-ev depending on rake taken, so should be a factor (but im lazy)

[adiman999]

Im gonna try clear up the maths of this for Melissa in simple terms. Using round figures etc.

Hypothetically speaking lets say effective stacks are £10 to start the hand. CO makes it 30p, we call. SB makes it £1.05, CO calls, we call. Pot is now £3.25 and the 3 players in the hand have £8.95 behind.

Flop comes down and SB bets £3.50, CO folds. SB now has £5.45 behind. CO folds. Now action is on us. We have pokerstove in our brain and work out that we have exactly 49% equity against the villains range. If we shove we are risking our stack of £8.95, to win the villains £8.95 plus the £3.25 already in the pot, for a total of £12.20. We assume the villain is NEVER folding the flop.

Now if this situation comes up 100 times, we expect to win it 49 times and lose it 51 times. When we lose it, we lose £8.95, when we win we win £12.20.

The 100 times this situation comes up we expect to lose 51 x 8.95 = £456.45 and win 49 x 12.20 = £597.8. So our wins minus losses over the 100 times is 597.8 - 456.45 = £141.35

Meaning we win on average £1.41 per time this situation comes up and we make this decision. Which is a hugely profitable 14bbs +EV.

So basically the key to this situation is that there is already money in the pot. If the pot was £0 (obv this never happens because of blinds) and we had 49% equity, its a losing shove, but as there is already money in the pot ( from preflop and the presence of the CO in this scenario) it becomes a profitable shove.

hope this helps

[adiman999]

obvs my above scenario doesnt factor in rake, but its still profitable when rake is factored in in this scenario

[adiman999]

Thanks guys so if this exact pot played out like this every time, both players would make money in the long run because of the blinds and the dead money from the CO..

Yes exactly, because the two remaining players are freerolling the dead money already in the middle. Long term that just gets chopped between them