River spot

[Derbylad]

PokerStars Zoom Hand #98872939686:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2013/05/20 23:35:29 WET [2013/05/20 18:35:29 ET]
Table 'Baade' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: natedogg633 ($49.91 in chips)
Seat 2: michooo82 ($46.93 in chips)
Seat 3: GHolden7 ($119.34 in chips)
Seat 4: Achiles12 ($54.73 in chips)
Seat 5: Fabulous999 ($51 in chips)
Seat 6: Waldinhooo ($79.95 in chips)
michooo82: posts small blind $0.25
GHolden7: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GHolden7 [ Ah]
Achiles12: folds
Fabulous999: folds
Waldinhooo: folds
natedogg633: folds
michooo82: raises $0.50 to $1
GHolden7: raises $2 to $3
michooo82: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [ ]
michooo82: checks
GHolden7: bets $3.60
michooo82: calls $3.60
*** TURN *** [ ] []
michooo82: checks
GHolden7: checks
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
michooo82: bets $3.50
GHolden7: ??

Flat? or Raise/Fold?... No stats

[wazz]

Raise to $12 and fold to a jam. You have the best hand here a lot and he definitely calls with worse. Buy in full!

[Young_gun]

Buy in full!

Pretty sure he has he had $119 start of hand..

As for hand raise bit more like $17.50 and prob fold to a shove just over pot

[Tal]

How often would we expect someone to call our river raise with a worse hand?

Raise SB and call a 3bet.
Check call
Check
Bet call

With...KT? K9s? Is there anything else?

Would all the other hands either raise or fold?

Really considering just a call, here. We got lucky and get some wonga, but raising feels greedy.

[DMorgan]

With his sizing I'd expect to have the best hand here pretty much always. His sizing suggests some showdown value, most likely Qx and since you check back the flop he's not gunna give you credit for much Kx so I'd be sizing this pretty big. $16 imo.

[wazz]

Buy in full!

Pretty sure he has he had $119 start of hand..

As for hand raise bit more like $17.50 and prob fold to a shove just over pot

well done mike on reading comprehension

[mulhuzz]

With his sizing I'd expect to have the best hand here pretty much always. His sizing suggests some showdown value, most likely Qx and since you check back the flop he's not gunna give you credit for much Kx so I'd be sizing this pretty big. $16 imo.

seems good. I maybe make it even a touch bigger.

[Tal]

If we generally have the best hand, that doesn't necessarily mean we should bet. The only justification for a value bet is we have to be satisfied worse hands call us.

What range of hands (and how frequently) would you expect to be called by? This would IMO be the determinant for a) betting and b) bet sizing.

[wazz]

By checking turn we've taken Kx out of our range; we'd surely also bet QQ as Kx is never folding. So AT is the top of our range for getting to the river this way, let alone raising. At $50/1 zoom villain can have AK, KT, K9, probably all the way down to a select few combos of Kxs, or hell even AQ that doesn't believe our river raise (for aforementioned reasons) and thinks he's inducing with that sizing. We definitely get called by worse.

[Tal]

I'm obviously a hard core nit.

I would fold almost everything worse than AT in a vacuum pretty much all the time. If I had specific info, obv that's different.

Lol nittaments

[wazz]

I'm obviously a hard core nit.

I would fold almost everything worse than AT in a vacuum pretty much all the time. If I had specific info, obv that's different.

Lol nittaments

so against you it's a flat on the river

[Tal]

I'm obviously a hard core nit.

I would fold almost everything worse than AT in a vacuum pretty much all the time. If I had specific info, obv that's different.

Lol nittaments

so against you it's a flat on the river