$1/2 PLO deep, bricking the river

[wazz]

Not many hands have gone to s/d and this is fairly early on, villain has 3b a couple of times and I've folded or called, when I've called it hasn't gone to s/d.

This deep and against some 3betting so wide I like to have a fairly wide 4b range pre that includes most AAxx, good KKxx, other good broadway hands and some ds rundowns, so I don't pot it, also in the interests of giving me more maneuvrability otb.

Unsure as to which turns I barrel but felt my flop bet was +ev before I consider that, as he can only really c/r if he's got tptk+nfd or better and will be calling and allowing me to spike something or barrelling some turns.

PokerStars Hand #98887266431:  Omaha Pot Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2013/05/21 10:49:11 WET [2013/05/21 5:49:11 ET]
Table 'Ludovica' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 5: Black_Wooolf ($507.15 in chips)
Seat 9: wazzbot ($492.35 in chips)
wazzbot: posts small blind $1
Black_Wooolf: posts big blind $2
Black_Wooolf: posts the ante $0.40
wazzbot: posts the ante $0.40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to wazzbot [ ]
wazzbot: raises $4.80 to $6.80
Black_Wooolf: raises $14.40 to $21.20
wazzbot: raises $32.80 to $54
Black_Wooolf: calls $32.80
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Black_Wooolf: checks
wazzbot: bets $66
Black_Wooolf: calls $66
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Black_Wooolf: checks
wazzbot: bets $174
Black_Wooolf: calls $174
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
Black_Wooolf: checks
wazzbot: bets $197.95 and is all-in

[Tal]

I'll bite, as this play is unfamiliar territory to me.

We had a wet flop, a wetter turn and a bricky river. What makes us think villain will fold and what range of hands will villain fold/call with?

[DMorgan]

wp imo, I think river is a clear jam

[wazz]

I'll bite, as this play is unfamiliar territory to me.

We had a wet flop, a wetter turn and a bricky river. What makes us think villain will fold and what range of hands will villain fold/call with?

I'm repping AAxx and sometimes KKxx pretty hard with preflop and would definitely jam those for value on the river when all the draws have missed and the turn card paired, and I could also feasibly have 9x myself.

Flop c-bet seems mandatory as his 3b pre is weighted towards higher cards; turn is most questionable but imo he needs 2p+ to jam.

[Honeybadger]

Yeah I like the river jam.

We had a wet flop, a wetter turn and a bricky river. What makes us think villain will fold and what range of hands will villain fold/call with?

Tal, think about what villain likely has when he check-calls the flop and turn on this board. If he had a hand with decent showdown value then he is likely to check-raise jam the turn due to the texture of the board and the remaining stack sizes (he'd never expect hero to be bet-folding due to hero's turn sizing and the texture of the board). For example, if villain had something like two pair or KKxx with hearts then he'd almost always jam the turn. When he check-calls twice it looks very much like he has a big draw with little to no showdown value.

Hero's play is perfectly consistent with having AAxx, plus he can also have various 9xxx hands too. It is very unlikely that villain is going to make some hero call if he has something like a random 8 in his hand to go with his NFD/wrap or whatever draw he likely has.

[mulhuzz]

sexy hand. wp.

[Tal]

Yeah I like the river jam.

We had a wet flop, a wetter turn and a bricky river. What makes us think villain will fold and what range of hands will villain fold/call with?

Tal, think about what villain likely has when he check-calls the flop and turn on this board. If he had a hand with decent showdown value then he is likely to check-raise jam the turn due to the texture of the board and the remaining stack sizes (he'd never expect hero to be bet-folding due to hero's turn sizing and the texture of the board). For example, if villain had something like KKxx with hearts then he'd almost always jam the turn. When he check-calls twice it looks very much like he has a big draw with little to no showdown value.

Hero's play is perfectly consistent with having AAxx, plus he can also have various 9xxx hands too. It is very unlikely that villain is going to make some hero call if he has something like a random 8 in his hand to go with his NFD/wrap or whatever draw he likely has.

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks

[SuuPRlim]

if we decide to bet the flop, and don't get raised then we really should be giving him the bullets, speshly on this river when our range is stronger than his but our actual hand almost certainly loses.

Not a great c-bet but so many good turn cards I think we just have to bet, wp imo

[wazz]

How is sizing?

[mulhuzz]

if we decide to bet the flop, and don't get raised then we really should be giving him the bullets, speshly on this river when our range is stronger than his but our actual hand almost certainly loses.

Not a great c-bet but so many good turn cards I think we just have to bet, wp imo

how much dynamic do we need to have before our default line is 'right, get the barrells out because he didn't raise flop'?

[SuuPRlim]

well when we know more about his stylee then we can make a few more assumptions on his clop range, but in theory he should be chk/calling some very strong hands as well as it stops us doing this to him, I think when readless we can assume he prolly WONT chk/call his best hands OTF + also he won't know we're this barrel happy so by the run out our hand is just stronger than his so we can keep betting, when we see his flop chk/call range include some stronger hands then our turn decision becomes a lot closer.

We can still bluff these runouts even against a stronger turn range but we need to watch the frequencies very carefully and preferably have a blocker of some description.

We have to be shoving AA+KK for value on the river though or this play won't work, i think thats a pretty easy value shove anyway given the action.

Sizing all looks fine, we have to go big OTT because it needs to look like we're not folding to a jam, once we've B/F that spot once or twice then you could size smaller with your whole range but history-less I think we need to be bigger. Means you'll get called slightly more often OTR, like I can't see him folding KK OTR as it's played (if he has KK+hearts he's played it pretty well imo)but we have zero hand so we dont need him to fold KK to make it a good triple.