$1/2 PLO deep, raising flop vs donkbet

[wazz]

Villain has shown himself to be fairly callstationy but this is his first donkbet. Figure he flats my raise pretty wide and when I'm behind I have a few good turns including some straight draws. At this point in the match he's 3bet a few times but not enough for me to consider dropping my raise otb frequency below 100%.

PokerStars Hand #98887551975:  Omaha Pot Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2013/05/21 11:02:12 WET [2013/05/21 6:02:12 ET]
Table 'Ludovica' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 5: Black_Wooolf ($834.91 in chips)
Seat 9: wazzbot ($451.58 in chips)
wazzbot: posts small blind $1
Black_Wooolf: posts big blind $2
Black_Wooolf: posts the ante $0.40
wazzbot: posts the ante $0.40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to wazzbot [ ]
wazzbot: raises $4.80 to $6.80
Black_Wooolf: calls $4.80
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Black_Wooolf: bets $10.42
wazzbot: raises $19.58 to $30
Black_Wooolf: raises $55.42 to $85.42
wazzbot: calls $55.42
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Black_Wooolf: bets $78
wazzbot: calls $78
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
Black_Wooolf: bets $221.48
wazzbot: raises $59.48 to $280.96 and is all-in

[mulhuzz]

why are you raising river?

edit: not meant to sound accusatory - just wondering what you think he calls with that's worse? or what better hands he folds.

[wazz]

J5 has to pay off.

[mulhuzz]

J5 has to pay off.

seems like there's one combo of J5 and two combos of JJ and one combo (an unlikely combo given action!) of QQ on river which he calls/sigh calls off with.

not really sure how that makes river a shove, since (at best) 2/3 of the time you lose a bit more and 1/3 of the time you win a bit more. I'm assuming he never takes this size with a bareflush, either?  And even if he does, he surely folds to jam anyway, so you win the same by jamming...

[wazz]

He's getting 16-1 on a call so yeah I'd definitely expect him to call with flushes, which we can give a few of because me not 4betting the flop takes JJ/55 out of my range and makes it mostly hands like KK+fd or low wrap + fd + bare 5 or something.

We can massively discount QQ; JJ we can't ofc discount as his play is perfectly consistent with that but it's also consistent with J5 (with something extra) and I'm not quite sure how much J5 he has in his preflop range.

[mulhuzz]

He's getting 16-1 on a call so yeah I'd definitely expect him to call with flushes, which we can give a few of because me not 4betting the flop takes JJ/55 out of my range and makes it mostly hands like KK+fd or low wrap + fd + bare 5 or something.

We can massively discount QQ; JJ we can't ofc discount as his play is perfectly consistent with that but it's also consistent with J5 (with something extra) and I'm not quite sure how much J5 he has in his preflop range.

what flushes do you expect him to bet with this sizing on river?

[wazz]

Not many, but do we really think he's calling with JJ+ 50% of the time? That's just one hand.

[mulhuzz]

Not many, but do we really think he's calling with JJ+ 50% of the time? That's just one hand.

I obv think you have the best hand here a chunk, I just don't expect him to call many flushes when we jam, so I think we're weirdly turning a boat into a bluff when literally no better hand will fold -- think the jam is bad for that reason only, rest of hand seems good though, even though the flop was one of the 'worst-best' flops for your hand we smashed the turn and river so let's gan fucking mental

[SuuPRlim]

whole hand seems ok, not entirely sure we NEED to raise this flop though, first donk bet so its like we need to build a lighter value range at this stage, and quite a nice hand to peel, as in, we can stand plenty of "heat" in the turn. i mean we can take a flop 3bet as well but with no knowledge of his flop donking tendencies (if he even has a strategy for his flop donks) we dont really know how this plays against his flop 3betting range, instinctively i'd say his flop 3bets will be very very strong hands at this stage.

Calling and shoving the river are very similar