OUT of the $10k deuce to seven lowball in the 11th level. Really gutted about this one, it felt like a big shot. The only consolation is that I don't think there is much I would have done differently over the two days.
I went back with 65,600 today, which was feeling really good, but luck just turned against me completely, only won one positive pot. These were the main spots that went against me, and my thoughts:
1) Second hand of the day, I open the button with pat 107642 with Bakes and Nick Schulman in the blinds, to 3k at 500/1k (300). Nick Schulman, who is playing circa 52k, 3bets to 8.5k. I feel my hand is really strong against his range, and think about 3betting or moving in, but it's so ugly in deuce to get that deep with a hand like 107 pat, as you are effectively turning it into a bluff, and will get action from a range of hands which has you mainly dead if you pat. So, I decided I had to call, and allow him to see his probable draw. He did indeed draw one, and fairly quickly bet 15k into 19.6k. Obviously it was bad news that he bet. However, there are two issues arising from the fact that I have had to underrep my hand before the draw, and that he is good enough to know that he is going to be betting into a pat jack 75% + of the time. Firstly, given I should have a weak range, he will be more likely to bluff as he will feel he can put some pressure on it. Secondly, I feel he is good enough that there is a reasonable slice of his value betting range that I can beat. If he might well bet any ten he has made, then I beat at least 20% of his value betting range. So, I called, and he spread 87652 across the table. It was a bad start, but I felt a pot that played itself given the underrepping spot.
2) I Raise David Baker's big blind at 600/1200 (300), to 3600 and he defends. I have 932kq (so drawing two). He draws one, so is probably drawing rough, and I make K9432. He bets 6500 into 9,900. My hand is a bluff catcher, but I'm sure he's good enough to know the maths of the game, and know that I am a favourite to make a pair. Therefore, he is definitely going to bluff with all his pairs above
. The big question is how his value range is compared to his range with which he decides to check and bluff catch. I feel that the former is thin because he is drawing rough, and the latter is wide because he is drawing rough, and because he may think that I don't fully realise how thin I rep when I bet a 2draw into a 1draw, and that therefore he may be happy to bluff catch wide. So, with a reasonably thin value range and reasonably wide bluff range, I felt I had to call. He shows t9832.
3) I am down to 13k at 600-1200 (300), and it folds round to me in the small, where I have (pat) qj432. I move in, Jesse Martin is in the big having recently accrued a big stack. He calls after a while, and draws to 742. I feel this is a really bad call, and he has given himself way too much leeway from the fact his stack means he can "afford to gamble." I am still a 73% ish favourite against his 2 card draw even with my nut low pat hand. We sweat two, and he flips over an 8 and then a 6 for a nasty semi-beat.
Real shame about this one guys, it would have been sweet to go deep.
Author