Line check AQ oop in 3bet squeezed pot in SCOOP M

[cambridgealex]

PokerStars Hand #99148494569: Tournament #2013050422, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (350/700) - 2013/05/26 20:50:19 WET [2013/05/26 15:50:19 ET]
Table '2013050422 507' 8-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Eat_U_Up_ha (84941 in chips)
Seat 2: kogoj (44031 in chips)
Seat 3: Sirocko (36352 in chips)
Seat 4: 20alex430 (30572 in chips)
Seat 5: pellompogos (93438 in chips)
Seat 6: raulBGR (61387 in chips)
Seat 7: anivocts (64007 in chips)
Seat 8: VernonH (29669 in chips)
Eat_U_Up_ha: posts the ante 85
kogoj: posts the ante 85
Sirocko: posts the ante 85
20alex430: posts the ante 85
pellompogos: posts the ante 85
raulBGR: posts the ante 85
anivocts: posts the ante 85
VernonH: posts the ante 85
20alex430: posts small blind 350
pellompogos: posts big blind 700
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 20alex430 [As ]
raulBGR: folds
anivocts: folds
VernonH: folds
Eat_U_Up_ha: raises 700 to 1400
kogoj: folds
Sirocko: calls 1400
20alex430: raises 3155 to 4555
pellompogos: folds
Eat_U_Up_ha: folds
Sirocko: calls 3155
*** FLOP *** [ ]
20alex430: checks
Sirocko: checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
20alex430: bets 4355
Sirocko: calls 4355
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
20alex430:

we have pot back.

[Ironside]

I give up I think, don't want to blow it on a bluff and any bet is a bluff

[pleno1]

ez cf

[cambridgealex]

other streets standard?

he checked back 88 for the bowl straight. rep KK, AK and other Kx pretty well by jamming river. did check cos he can have Kx also but wanted to check other streets as well.

[Ironside]

i would c-bet/fold the flop and cf turn

[cambridgealex]

I don't like betting this flop because there's almost no hand that he calls my 3bet pre with that folds on this flop. The only hands that might fold are hands I crush anyway like KQ or AJ.

Think the turn is interesting though.

[gouty]

What was his play like?  He can only really have a pp or  tj soooooted . Seems like time to keep the pot small?

[PathFinder]

All streets look fine to me. By fine i mean i do the exact sane thing ;)I do hope we are bluffing most rivers when it bricks off right?

[TL900]

Think i jam the river, he has very few Kx combos whereas we have quite a few. The only realistic Kx combo he can have is some weirdly played K9s/KTs I expect him to bet all his KJ/KQ otf once we check because he cant win at showdown with king high. His range after his flop check behind looks very pair heavy imo, to call/call pre then check back this flop however when he calls the turn you gota think he has some QJs/J9s/JTs type of hand he would almost certainly raise KQ ott if he happened to have checked back the flop with it for protection so otr I feel like his range is gona be very 2 pair heavy which I think we gota try and get him to fold on this river (dont think we ever have the best hand), we can easily have KQ/KTs/K9s/KJss and played it like this and also AKss/ AKhh. Think I like jamming to for maximum pressure (he has 6k left if hes wrong and like 27k if he folds), although I could be convinced 60% pot or something is better

Played fine up to river imo I agree I think betting the flop would be a mistake.

I realise he had and he probably doesn't fold the river (even though its the same as QJ but w/e) but that doesnt mean it would be a bad jam he just has near the top of his river range

[PathFinder]

Pretty solid reasoning to bet river. All depends on how confident we feel he folds the sucker straight as Tom suggested. But if we are changing our line can't go far wrong with Toms line

[outragous76]

 Anticipate this will be unpopular  but I peel Pre off these stacks.

Also if betting flop is a mistake vs his range then betting turn is equally a mistake for exactly the same reason, and you rep even less

At river I'm just trying to show down on that board

[Whollyflush]

Yeh it does look like a reasonable spot to double barrel, that said given the nature of the board i might be inclined to c/c the turn since he should have alot of 2 pairs/pair+draw and its incredibly tough to make ppl fold 2 pair in an mtt. Hes unlikely to give us much credit if we lead favourable rivers for our hand.

[cambridgealex]

Hes unlikely to give us much credit if we lead favourable rivers for our hand.

Really? What range will he give us if we c/call turn then donk a K or 8 river?

[Whollyflush]

I think a K river i would almost certainly look to donk the river to avoid him checking back 1 pair hands. Cards like or i would look to c/r river as these hands should either smash his range or give him a very good spot to turn a weak SD hand into a bluff, low hearts i would also lead so that he cant get to a cheap showdown with a 1 pair hand.

You can also look at this in reverse, if say the river falls /8h/ any K any 8 and you bet turn and river, its equally tough for you to get paid given all the draws came in and you will be betting a really wet board OOP.

Ultimately i guess I'm highlighting that with a single turn bet we have very little fold equity, so i would reccommend this hand to be a good nomination for bluffing the river should you choose to bet the turn. Checking allows us to keep the pot smaller, when given mtt' sizings we will almost always get the direct odds to call and expect to get paid a good amount of time in a showdown heavy game.

There's also a non-zero chance that he can raise the turn with a 2 pair hand like TJ (or even a weirdly played set straight) putting us in a really tough spot where we are obliged to put more chips in.

[cambridgealex]

OK thanks, I felt like a jam was correct but pussied out. Agree now about the turn. Don't fancy our chances of getting paid with a c/call donk line if we hit, but agree that we'd be obliged to donk river because he'll check back so much.