poker news
blondepedia
card room
tournament schedule
uk results
galleries
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
July 25, 2025, 06:33:33 AM
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Search:
Advanced search
Order through Amazon and help blonde Poker
2262432
Posts in
66607
Topics by
16991
Members
Latest Member:
nolankerwin
blonde poker forum
Poker Forums
Poker Hand Analysis
Good Bluff Line?
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
« previous
next »
Pages:
[
1
]
2
Author
Topic: Good Bluff Line? (Read 1950 times)
PathFinder
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 411
Good Bluff Line?
«
on:
May 31, 2013, 11:00:48 PM »
Hi Guys,
Do you feel this is a strong line to take and should get through a high percentage of the time or would you consider it spewy?
Seat 1: master382 (9,256)
Seat 2: gottapokka (11,582)
Seat 3: nesTinHo (7,845)
Seat 5: guigasviana (8,997)
Seat 6: SARGO32 (4,169)
Seat 7: strangehead (3,443)
Seat 8: IgorAgeev (6,600)
Seat 9: HERO (23,668)
IgorAgeev antes 50
HERO antes 50
master382 posts the small blind of 200
gottapokka posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [
]
nesTinHo folds
guigasviana folds
SARGO32 folds
strangehead folds
IgorAgeev folds
HERO raises to 800
master382 folds
gottapokka calls 400
*** FLOP *** [
] (Total Pot: 2,200, 2 Players)
gottapokka checks
HERO bets 900
gottapokka calls 900
*** TURN *** [
] [
] (Total Pot: 4,000, 2 Players)
gottapokka checks
HERO bets 1,600
gottapokka calls 1,600
*** RIVER *** [
] [
] (Total Pot: 7,200, 2 Players)
LaiBin sits down
gottapokka checks
HERO bets 20,318, and is all in
Logged
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #1 on:
June 01, 2013, 12:36:55 AM »
[/] This is a strong line.
[/] It will get through a high percentage of the time.
[/] It is spewy.
Ticks
all
the boxes!
Logged
PathFinder
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 411
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #2 on:
June 01, 2013, 01:01:18 AM »
All i wanted was Honey Badger to post on my PHA
Logged
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #3 on:
June 01, 2013, 01:08:14 AM »
Sorry it wasn't a detailed post. Too drunk.
Logged
cambridgealex
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 14799
#lovethegame
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #4 on:
June 01, 2013, 01:14:26 AM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on June 01, 2013, 12:36:55 AM
[/] This is a strong line.
[/] It will get through a high percentage of the time.
[/] It is spewy.
Ticks
all
the boxes!
LOL HONEYBADGER CHECKBOXES
Logged
Poker goals:
[ ] 7 figure score
[X] 8 figure score
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #5 on:
June 01, 2013, 01:20:45 AM »
Quote from: cambridgealex on June 01, 2013, 01:14:26 AM
LOL HONEYBADGER CHECKBOXES
Did I do them right? I wanna be down with the kidz yo
Also, lol poshboy shouting.
Logged
cambridgealex
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 14799
#lovethegame
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #6 on:
June 01, 2013, 01:23:25 AM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on June 01, 2013, 01:20:45 AM
Quote from: cambridgealex on June 01, 2013, 01:14:26 AM
LOL HONEYBADGER CHECKBOXES
Did I do them right? I wanna be down with the kidz yo
Also, lol poshboy shouting.
Yeh you did them just fine...
[ ]
Logged
Poker goals:
[ ] 7 figure score
[X] 8 figure score
stato_1
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: leet
#Team_Eureka
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #7 on:
June 01, 2013, 01:25:17 AM »
get a room boys.
i like the line btw
Logged
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #8 on:
June 01, 2013, 02:06:01 AM »
Quote from: stato_1 on June 01, 2013, 01:25:17 AM
get a room boys.
i like the line btw
I dunno... can't do maths in my head when this drunk but he's gonna need to get folds almost 75% of the time
just to break even
on the jam, right? Villain's range is not fully capped - in the sense that he can have a variety of two pair hands as well as some slowplayed sets. Huge overbets are really dangerous vs uncapped ranges.
Even if it will get through a little more than 75% of the time and thus be marginally +EV, I still don't think this is a good play. The reason for this is that a different option (a smaller overbet, a 'normal bet', or even just checking) is likely to be higher EV.
As regards the overbet option, I would suggest that opponent's calling range is going to be pretty damn inelastic once the bet-size becomes anything more than the pot. And if this is the case, betting 8k dominates jamming for 20k. He will call with two pair or better, and fold everything else, regardless of whether we risk that extra 12k. I guess the full on jam might make a difference to some of his Ax hands, but that is only a small part of his range.
IMO even just checking back the river probably has a higher EV than a full on jam, since we
will
win the pot some of the time when we check.
Again, I really can't focus enough to do the maths. But let's imagine that we win the pot 20% of the time when we check back the river. If this is the case then for jamming to be better than checking our jam would have to succeed well over 75% of the time. EV of jamming is $0 (i.e. break even) if villain folds ~75% of the time. And EV of checking back is $1440 assuming we win 20% of the time when we check. And EV of checking is $720 assuming we win 10% of the time when we check etc...
Like I said, play around with the numbers because I literally cannot do it right now. But a maths wizard like you should easily be able to work out how often villain has to fold to a jam to make jamming better than checking. Do the maths assuming we win the pot 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30% of the time when we check... and see how often villain needs to fold to a jam in each case to make jamming better than simply checking. It will always be substantially bigger than 75% - because 75% has an EV of $0 and checking back is ALWAYS going to have an EV greater than $0.
«
Last Edit: June 01, 2013, 02:21:35 AM by Honeybadger
»
Logged
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #9 on:
June 01, 2013, 02:19:35 AM »
Just to make it really clear...
If we jam and opponent will call with ~75% of his range, then
we have lost the pot
.
There is 7200 in the pot. Our EV = 0. Therefore we have lost the pot. The entire pot.
I am guessing - off the top of my head - that villain needs to fold around 8-9 times out of 10 to make jamming better than other options, such as checking back or making a smaller bet.
«
Last Edit: June 01, 2013, 03:21:22 AM by Honeybadger
»
Logged
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #10 on:
June 01, 2013, 02:35:21 AM »
Just
tried
to do one maths example on a calculator, but I might well have made a mistake in my weakened state.
Anyway, for reference... if we build a model with the following assumptions:
1. Villain will fold 80% of the time to a jam
2. Hero will win 20% of the time when he checks
... then jamming is very slightly more +EV than checking.
Logged
WotRTheChances
MinRaiseFTW, WotRTheChances, Quelles_Sont
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1012
#Team_Eureka
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #11 on:
June 01, 2013, 03:01:04 AM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on June 01, 2013, 02:06:01 AM
Quote from: stato_1 on June 01, 2013, 01:25:17 AM
get a room boys.
i like the line btw
As regards the overbet option, I would suggest that opponent's calling range is going to be pretty damn inelastic once the bet-size becomes anything more than the pot. And if this is the case,
betting 8k dominates jamming for 20k. He will call with two pair or better, and fold everything else, regardless of whether we risk that extra 12k.
I guess the full on jam might make a difference to some of his Ax hands, but that is only a small part of his range.
Assume you noticed villain in the hand only has just over 8.5k back on the river in this hand? He's not actually jamming 20k effective. Don't know if you're maths in future posts is based on it being a 8.5k or 20k river jam?
Logged
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #12 on:
June 01, 2013, 03:14:33 AM »
Lol. No, obviously I did not notice this! Ooooopps.
I suspect this makes EVERYTHING I have written irrelevant and pointless. Even more so than usual.
I am going to sleep.
Logged
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #13 on:
June 01, 2013, 03:18:12 AM »
Oh... and I like the jam with the actual effective stacks.
Good night.
Logged
wazz
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 614
Re: Good Bluff Line?
«
Reply #14 on:
June 01, 2013, 04:55:47 AM »
I wonder how effective a drunk honeybadger is at fighting. Suspect I don't want to actually find out.
I like betting the river but feel like a slightly smaller bet will have similar fold equity. Villain calling $6k and losing leaves him with 5.5bbs from 29 to start the hand and he's liable to consider that in the same way he considers all-in. It's also slightly more consistent in my mind with wanting to get value as opposed to trying to get villain to fold.
Logged
Pages:
[
1
]
2
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Poker Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Rail
===> past blonde Bashes
===> Best of blonde
=> Diaries and Blogs
=> Live Tournament Updates
=> Live poker
===> Live Tournament Staking
=> Internet Poker
===> Online Tournament Staking
=> Poker Hand Analysis
===> Learning Centre
-----------------------------
Community Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Lounge
=> Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Loading...