To coast into money on big buy in bubbles?

[ABO151]

Good Morning,

Up early as a light morning and would typically play some poker but not so rolled at moment but will be playing very soon though as I'm off to Marbella next week as have won a package for UKIPT Marbella main event. I have been playing poker since 2011 having discoverd  the game relatively late in life after a career in financial industry. My experience of markets as helped me in the game I think and it has quickly become a new focus and passion aside from the obvious important stuff like family and LFC!

Anyway, despite a handful of live cashes of 4 figures, I still await that big live score. As I sit here this morning a bit skint but ahead of a decent size tourney later in week my mind is taken back to the £8k I 'let go' in March 2013 - or did I? I am absolutely convinced I will get that major live success soon so when I found EPT London on my doorstep and having already made day 2 and 3 on the previous 2 EPTs I had qualified for in Deauville and Barcelona respectively then I decided to bite bullet and buy in direct! I had a few satelite attempts but not so many and my logic was I had won about £3k on line that month so let's go for it!

As with previous attempts I successfully navigated day 1 and then, following a day 2 playing some absolute legends of game (inc the lovely Vicki Coren - this even got my wife's attention as she is big fan of their family) as with Barcelona I found myself short stacked but had made day 3. EPT London day 3 started bad as, when checking table draw etc I managed to get a computer virus so that was a worrying message I received (but when I called met police they said a well known scam) so was £60 down as this is what is cost to fix. I then got stuck in lift at Edware road which was stressful ad I just about made the start of day 3's play. I found myself literally in far corner of room at Vic and with one of smaller chip stacks found this ironic as I would surely soon have to squeeze past all the 130 odd people still left. However, as if to change my luck on day, I managed to win first two all in's - and then a third which left me 'comfortable' at 30 big blinds.

I remember texting a friend as the other players fell (inc a gross AK > KK on our table) and deciding that unless I got a really good spot I would slow down somewhat as the bubble was now very near. So I passed some hands like 55 unopened but then, with 98 people left and 96 paid, I wake up with AK off on button in an unopened pot. By this time I was at around 20 bigs and blinds were very big stacks. I decided to jam given holding, spot, situation and pick up blinds. The small blind however (who was big stack as I said but who had doubled me up twice already) instant calls with 66. Suddenly I am surrounded by staff and cameras and its no joy for me and thirdtime lucky for me and now I am making that walk I had expected some hours before. I walk past people with faces that say ''sorry'' including the lovely Gemma who used to deal in 8 club in a City 'home game' and so has done brilliantly to me a TD these days. I called my friend and he said I had to go with that hand but did I...? I saw another poker mate in DTD some weeks later (ironically when I ''bubbled'' Monte Carlo too -  this time 6 away but with a cruel run out) and he said a min raise fold could have been option - but I cant fold AK in that spot no more than I don't think I can pass the hand altogether!

Amazingly when I got home some 1 1/2 hrs later and watched live streaming - the bubble still hadn't broken. It was mad to see how many top pro's with massive cashes behind them had literally clung on. Barry Greenstein in commentary even said he my fold AK if short in one scenario - he was of course referring to someone else but suddenly I got to thinking if I had just thrown 8k away. I don't think I did and indeed if I had doubled up by winning flip I could have been in a spot to get that big score but interested to hear your thoughts...? Next time - hopefully in Marbella - should I just secure the cash first and then go for it?

Cheers,      

[Matt.NFFC.]

I'd love to read that but stopped..........hurt my eyes, no paragraphs.

[Tractor]

I'd love to read that but stopped..........hurt my eyes, no paragraphs.

Same, maybe its just to early in the morning.

[Waz1892]

I guess it depends on what the 8k means to you and your finances.

I think that is the main driver in a situ like this.

As Personally, as 8k is massive to me, so being 2 away from 8k I'm waiting to cash.

[mondatoo]

Don't buyin direct if min cashing means that much to you that you want to open fold your button off 20bbs with AK.

[jezza777]

you don't make money at poker by making fundamentally bad decisions

[ABO151]

yep so most agree I had to do it - thanks - I dont think Id be playing poker so well if I fold in that spot !! but just interested to get feedback. I do the same again.

[pvas2]

The bubble is a big pay jump. All of the other pay jumps will be a lot less until near the final table. Of course you don't expect to be called by 66 so the shove is fine on the whole. Other people should be calling tighter too imo but you should tighten your shoving range. Min raise then folding would be very exploitable on the bubble by big stacked good players. At the end of the day it isn't about "min cashing" or not it's about making the best $ ev decision and that could well be to open fold premiums at some point but I doubt this is one of them.

[dakky]

Don't buyin direct if min cashing means that much to you that you want to open fold your button off 20bbs with AK.

This

Also r/c btn.

You're actually more likely to have 8k if you stick 3k on a column at roulette for one spin than play with the mindset you posted imo

[bergeroo]

I think you know it was correct to shove.

If 8k is 'massive' to you, isn't 5,300 massive to you too? It seems like the bad decision was to buy in direct and keep all your own action in this case...

[SuuPRlim]

from a +$EV perspective (as in a thought process which will generate us greatest financial profit) you should ABSOLUTELY be very cautious with a venerable stack on the bubble. EPT london a gd example, you're effectively on an £8,000 "bubble" for 97th you get £0, and for 96th you get £8,000. It will be 11 or 12 left when you are next facing a money jump of this size.

Stack utility is an important thing to consider, if you have a very big stack then the immediate utility value it has on the bubble is to pressurise the shorter stacks, ones who are venerable to missing out on that pay jump, you can afford to lose a pot to them, but they can't afford to lose one to you etc. However when you have a small stack - 20 big blinds, then the biggest value in your stack at that point is in making the money, so all these "I'm just init2winit" people who wouldn't let the bubble affect them with a 20big blind stack are throwing money away, and this is why you see very well established pro's with big results playing the same way, because it's the CORRECT thing to do.

How much the money matters etc isn't a consideration for this point in the tournament, that was a consideration for when you were entering the tournament.

As played ofc, you're AK hand sounds like you should 100% be playing it, youre options sound like they were raising (to induce shove from weaker hands you'd dominate) or moving in and forcing hands that might shove "light" like QJs or pocket pairs or such hands that have good equity against you to fold, and allowing you to just pick up the blinds and antes risk free. You prolly played it correctly tbh.

[ABO151]

I think you know it was correct to shove.

If 8k is 'massive' to you, isn't 5,300 massive to you too? It seems like the bad decision was to buy in direct and keep all your own action in this case...

thanks all - some really good advice - re above quote, yes I guess I should start think of selling action to reduce variance - wouldn't know where to start though - I mean is it just a case of posting a Hendon mob link to Blonde? If so I may even do so for UKIPT Marbella later today as €1100 quite a decent buy in and I cashed 3 times on season 3 so may get some takers...        

[tikay]

I think you know it was correct to shove.

If 8k is 'massive' to you, isn't 5,300 massive to you too? It seems like the bad decision was to buy in direct and keep all your own action in this case...

thanks all - some really advice - re above quote, yes I guess I should start think of selling action to reduce variance - wouldn't know where to start though - I mean is it just a case of posting a Hendon mob link to Blonde? If so I may even do so for UKIPT Marbella later today as €1100 quite a decent buy in and I cashed 3 times on season 2 so may get some takers...          

Ahh, I see what you did there.

Welcome to blonde Mr ABO. 

[ABO151]

  you know my game well Tikay sir! By the way, is there a site where the good blonde folk can view Sky Poker MTT results as it's not on OPR and my stars one's are a bit slanted as I predominantly use for EPT and UKIPT sats...cheers and gl in Vegas!

[tikay]

you know my game well Tikay sir! By the way, is there a site where the good blonde folk can view Sky Poker MTT results as it's not on OPR and my stars one's are a bit slanted as I predominantly use for EPT and UKIPT sats...cheers and gl in Vegas!

Only Sharkscope, as far as I am aware.

Just plug in your screen-name, job done.

Thanks for the Vegas wishes. I'll need them......