What now?

[Radagast]

I have only recently joined the table, quite passively winning my only hand played A9 on an Ace high board in the immediate previous hand where I completed the small blind.  No info on villain.

PokerStars Hand #100049011314: Tournament #743314617, $1.00+$0.10 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVI (6000/12000) - 2013/06/14 16:39:42 ET
Table '743314617 489' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: FANCOELHO (132302 in chips)
Seat 2: K.Nurbek (142345 in chips)
Seat 3: kossty78 (177410 in chips)
Seat 4: mani62 (90200 in chips)
Seat 5: rebuy8 (467528 in chips)
Seat 6: SnakePL14 (86350 in chips)
Seat 7: Wargolandros (329614 in chips)
Seat 8: Emmett Till (189530 in chips)
Seat 9: TEX@S^ALL"IN (181800 in chips)
FANCOELHO: posts the ante 1200
K.Nurbek: posts the ante 1200
kossty78: posts the ante 1200
mani62: posts the ante 1200
rebuy8: posts the ante 1200
SnakePL14: posts the ante 1200
Wargolandros: posts the ante 1200
Emmett Till: posts the ante 1200
TEX@S^ALL"IN: posts the ante 1200
TEX@S^ALL"IN: posts small blind 6000
FANCOELHO: posts big blind 12000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Emmett Till [Ah ]
K.Nurbek: folds
kossty78: folds
mani62: folds
rebuy8: folds
SnakePL14: folds
Wargolandros: folds
Emmett Till: raises 12000 to 24000
TEX@S^ALL"IN: folds
FANCOELHO: raises 107102 to 131102 and is all-in

[The Camel]

Fold?

[Radagast]

Easy fold?

[Pinchop73]

Jam pre. Snap call now. Don't ever fold 15bigs vs a 12bb jam button vs bb ok. Ta

[kano]

Easy call, you are butt vs BB 3 bet shove of 11 bigs in a $1 mtt.

[Radagast]

Cheers dudes.  I did snap and lost to a better starting hand.  Wondered if I could have gotten away.  His only evidence of me was completing with A9.  He had to assume I was better there?

Anyway, thanks again.

[The Camel]

 

Sorry, thought it 600-1200 not 6000-12000!

Jam pre obv,

[theprawnidentity]

Raise call standard for me into an unknown.

[TL900]

Jam pre. Snap call now. Don't ever fold 15bigs vs a 12bb jam button vs bb ok. Ta

why?

r/c >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> jam too

[Pinchop73]

Alright Alright....with AQo

[muckthenuts]

Def r/c > jam

[dwayne110]

Button open v big blind? doesnt matter if raise-call or open shove, all chips going in ... Especially given the stack/blind sizes and it being a $1 tourney... Gonna be ahead of villain's range so much more often than behind

[wazz]

This is something I happen to have done some maths on, bear with me and hopefully this will open your eyes.

Let's use the following conditions: 20 big blinds deep effective stacks between BTN and BB, 8-handed with antes, no ICM considerations.

BTN opens for 2k (@500/1000/125). SB folds. BB 3bjams. With what range should BTN be calling?

Before we answer that question, we need to know what range BB is 3bjamming with. In order to answer that question, let's examine his risk/reward under varying assumptions.

First of all let's assign an opening range for the button. A reasonable range, imo, would be: 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q7s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo, or in English: any pair, any ace, any broadway, most suited connectors and a few suited 1 and 2-gappers. This is 33% of hands.

Now BB 3bjams. Let's give a tight calling range of TT+/AQo+, which is 4.7% of hands. Hell, let's rock the boat and make it 88+/AQo+ - 5.6% of hands. That means that once BTN has opened, he only call a 3b 5.6/33 or 17% of the time.

Let's start with a tight, value-based 3bjam range from the BB - TT+, AKo, AKs - 3.5%. When he jams, he has 54.7% equity in a pot that's 41.5k which gives back 22.7k, having risked 19k, giving a profit of 3.7k. However, that only happens 17% of the time; the rest of the time he wins 4.5k (including his BB which would otherwise be lost). So his equity for 3bjamming is (0.17*3.7) + (0.83*4.5) = 4.4k (rounding everything at the end to 1dp).

Let's open up BBs range to all pairs and all good broadways, or 22+,ATs+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo. That range only has 39% when called! However.... He gets back 0.39 * 41.5k = 16.2k, losing 2.8k 17% of the time. Using the same calculation as above: (0.17*-2.8) + (0.83*4.5) = +3.3.... Still profitable and by a decent margin.

I've got lots more to write so let's skip to the conclusion of this first part: Let's have BB jam 100% of hands. When called he has 27.6% equity, losing 0.17 * 41.5 * 0.276 = 1.95 which is lower than 0.83*4.5, by about 1.95. The conclusion is that if button is opening wide and calling tight, BB has a profitable jam with any two cards.

[wazz]

Of course, that on its own doesn't mean that you should snap the shove. Let's look at more maths.

BTN has read the above post and adjusts by opening tighter and calling wider, opening 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo, or in English: any pair, any suited ace, A8o and better, all broadways, most suited connectors and some suited one-gappers, equivalent to the top 26.1% of hands. He calls 66+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo, or 10.1% of hands.

Obviously the BB has a profitable rejam with the same calling range as above, as he's got 50% equity, with dead money from the SB and antes, and he wins the pot outright a healthy chunk of the time, so let's skip to the same range BTN is opening.

He gets a call 10.1/26.1 = 38.7% of the time. When called he has 40.5% equity, giving him back 0.405*41.5 = 16.8 BBs, losing 2.2. He wins the 4.5k outright 61.3% of the time, so his EV is (-2.2*0.387) + (4.5*0.613) = 1.91 BBs profit.

Expand BBs range further - top 51.1% hands is 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T7o+,98o. Against the same calling range he has 35.8%. Plugging those details into an excel spreadsheet formula bollocks, he wins 1.16BBs.

Give him 100% of hands. He has 31.8% when called and still makes 0.51 BBs.

So.... wow. If we open tight on the button and call wide, our opponent still has a profitable jam without looking at his cards.

I don't think you should be looking to tighten up your opening range otb so let's look instead at widening your calling range.

Opening the same 'any pair, any suited ace, A8o and better, all broadways, most suited connectors and some suited one-gappers, equivalent to the top 26.1% of hands' of hands as before, but this time calling 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QJs,A6o+,KJo+, the 19.8% of hands (incidentally not the top 19.8% of hands, according to Pokerstove, but I'd rather call a jam with A2s than QTo).

BB gets called 19.8/26.1 = 75.9% of the time. Again, looking at the BTNs opening range as BBs 3bjamming range, he has 46.9% equity. He makes 1.43 BBs.
BB widens his 3jamming range to the 51.1% range given above. He has 41.2% equity when called, and now loses 0.13BBs overall.

So opening 26% of the time and calling about 20% of the time takes us very near the equilibrium point, where it's profitable for BB to 3bjam ~ 50% of his range but not the other 50%, i.e. before he's seen his cards villain is indifferent to folding and 3bjamming.

Cliffs notes of all the above are that if we're opening a regular range on the button, and the BB has done the maths, it is awful to fold too much. Of course, we have many other considerations - we might have strong reason to believe that BB is flatting our raise pretty wide and jamming a narrow range, to which we respond by opening a very wide range and calling quite tight. Most good players, also, will flat this raise from the BB with a decently wide range, so we have postflop playability to take into account.

Regarding this specific hand, with 11BB effective stacks and AQo, folding is extremely exploitable. That's not to say it isn't sometimes correct - live, especially, it's not rare to get a read that AQo is behind a jamming range, but it's one of those spots where it can still rarely be a big mistake to call and it can often be a big mistake to fold (versus ranges, ofc).

[wazz]

And don't worry, I'm currently at grey, hopefully there's a spot opening up at white soon and you can upgrade from brown.