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Author Topic: Early in Bigger 109 turned TPTK against two winning UK grinders  (Read 7866 times)
The Squid
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« Reply #45 on: June 19, 2013, 11:28:58 AM »

I would c-bet because we have the strongest range on this board and we're perceived as solid. We have best hand decent portion of the time and a great deal of equity vs nearly all pairs that don't already have a set. I don't th3ink this is a board that 'smashes' there range. peeler never has two pair, bb prob doesnt peel T3, 73 or T3off

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Nit Tendencies
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Is this some kind of hilarious practical joke?


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« Reply #46 on: June 19, 2013, 12:53:34 PM »

I think if you ran our ranges Sammy you'd find that this board is actually better for their ranges because when we open ep at 30/60 we don't have a lot of the weaker Tx combos which they do, and the bb has at least 4 combos of T7 (the suited ones). Most of our range is actually two overcards to this board so I think if you ran this potential c-bet through flopzilla or similar you'd find that we have far too many combos of off suit overcards to bet AJo profitably. It's not illegal to just cf this hand since we have plenty of flush draws, over pairs and AT hands which we can bet with. Betting AJ just means that we're betting far too much of our range, and like I said before, I don't mind if its against two weak bananas who aren't going to punish us for making an exploitative play, but these villains (especially franky playing a wide range in the bb) definitely won't just let us run them over with brute force.
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Is this some kind of hilarious practical joke?
pleno1
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« Reply #47 on: June 19, 2013, 01:04:10 PM »

I think if you ran our ranges Sammy you'd find that this board is actually better for their ranges because when we open ep at 30/60 we don't have a lot of the weaker Tx combos which they do, and the bb has at least 4 combos of T7 (the suited ones). Most of our range is actually two overcards to this board so I think if you ran this potential c-bet through flopzilla or similar you'd find that we have far too many combos of off suit overcards to bet AJo profitably. It's not illegal to just cf this hand since we have plenty of flush draws, over pairs and AT hands which we can bet with. Betting AJ just means that we're betting far too much of our range, and like I said before, I don't mind if its against two weak bananas who aren't going to punish us for making an exploitative play, but these villains (especially franky playing a wide range in the bb) definitely won't just let us run them over with brute force.

Yeh absolutely this.
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Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of  fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
Honeybadger
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« Reply #48 on: June 19, 2013, 01:54:23 PM »

I think if you ran our ranges Sammy you'd find that this board is actually better for their ranges because when we open ep at 30/60 we don't have a lot of the weaker Tx combos which they do, and the bb has at least 4 combos of T7 (the suited ones). Most of our range is actually two overcards to this board so I think if you ran this potential c-bet through flopzilla or similar you'd find that we have far too many combos of off suit overcards to bet AJo profitably. It's not illegal to just cf this hand since we have plenty of flush draws, over pairs and AT hands which we can bet with. Betting AJ just means that we're betting far too much of our range, and like I said before, I don't mind if its against two weak bananas who aren't going to punish us for making an exploitative play, but these villains (especially franky playing a wide range in the bb) definitely won't just let us run them over with brute force.

This is true, but only because it turns out hero is opening stuff like AJo in EP. He shouldn't be doing so IMO. And if we remove most of the dominated offsuit broadways from his range then he is actually pretty strong on this board.

Hero doesn't have (m)any Tx hands in his range, but he does have 24 combos of overpairs, 6 combos of sets (although maybe he doesn't open 77 in EP?), plus some nutted semi-bluff combos like AcQc, AcKc, AcJc etc.

This is a good example of how a preflop mistake can compound itself postflop. If we have AJo type hands in our preflop range, and choose to cbet them because we think our perceived range is stronger than our actual range (i.e. we are deliberately too bluff heavy on this flop), then we get accidentally outplayed if either of the villains is overly optimistic/out of line with his floats. We cannot barrel very often when we cbet AJo with no Ace of clubs, so we allow either villain to get to showdown (or bluff us on later streets) with their weak flop peels. Basically if either villain is defending the flop 'sub-optimally' loosely then they are accidentally exploiting us and their sub-optimal play becomes optimal. I would suggest that the majority of players (even the really good ones) do not realise quite how tightly they should be defending vs EP cbets in a threeway pot (since both opponents share responsibility for defending enough) and so they will peel far too often from a GTO perspective. Which means they are actually exploiting us by accident if we have too much crap like AJo in our cbetting range.

On the other hand, if villains are both playing very tight postflop, not defending anywhere near enough vs cbets, then we can get away with cbetting 'too much' air. Especially if our image is good, and our perceived range stronger than it in fact is. If this is the case for the majority of the table (i.e. they are too fit or fold postflop) then AJo might become a profitable open preflop from EP, since we can exploitatively cbet too much air on many flops... although this would depend on most players also being fairly passive preflop.

But usually AJo should just be folded preflop.

« Last Edit: June 19, 2013, 02:07:44 PM by Honeybadger » Logged
dwayne110
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« Reply #49 on: June 19, 2013, 08:03:42 PM »

Good pha imo, i think a lot of us get into spots like this where we open too wide relative to position, get 'lucky' by hitting TPTK on flop/turn, then struggle to lay it down. In this specific example 3 way id fold fairly quickly as it had been played, if its a bluff then wp. Too high variance to assume he's exploiting the check flop/bet turn, not to mention the fact he has no idea whether were 'good enough' to lay down overpairs and TPTK, so i think we have to respect his range is mostly 2pair+
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The Squid
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« Reply #50 on: June 19, 2013, 10:32:06 PM »

I mean Jamie says he doesnt't always open AJo and most regs would perceive this to be stone bottom of his opening range so if he bets twice/three times your KT is bang under it. The other advantage is that it just keeps the nuts in our range. So that when we hit turn people can't attack us as has happened here.
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Honeybadger
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« Reply #51 on: June 20, 2013, 01:18:45 AM »

I mean Jamie says he doesnt't always open AJo and most regs would perceive this to be stone bottom of his opening range so if he bets twice/three times your KT is bang under it. The other advantage is that it just keeps the nuts in our range. So that when we hit turn people can't attack us as has happened here.

Where I disagree with you is your inference that hero is going to be able to profitably barrel the turn/river unimproved. There are not many cards that give hero backdoor equity; the only thing he can really turn (apart from top pair) is a gutshot. IMO it is a bit spewy to recklessly barrel blank turns, hoping that your perceived strong range on its own is enough to make this profitable. The EV of barrelling is a combination of fold equity and pot equity, and without any turned pot equity to discount the price of our bluff it requires excessive levels of optimism to keep firing willy nilly.

Perhaps you are right and it is a very marginally profitable cbet, just taking advantage of the fact that hero's range is likely to be perceived as being rather tighter than it, in fact, is. But I sort of doubt it. If we think cbetting AJo with no BDFD on this board is profitable then we are pretty much saying that it is profitable to cbet our entire range. This may perhaps be very marginally the case against one weak fit-or-fold opponent. But against two opponents - especially two good opponents - I am pretty sure this is not the case. I'd construct my cbet bluffing range by choosing air hands with backdoor equity - there are plenty of these. If this means we have to check-fold a large portion of our range then this is partly a product of the fact that we are facing two opponents rather than one, but mainly it is a product of us opening too many combinations of offsuit broadways in EP.

Another point is that we do not automatically lose the pot if we check. Checking still has an EV greater than 0. And if cbetting is only very, very marginally profitable (i.e. it has an EV of only slightly greater than 0), it is likely that checking is a more +EV option. It feels counter-intuitive that this is the case because we win the pot more often when we cbet compared to when we check. But winning the pot the most often is not the same as being the most +EV play.
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Nit Tendencies
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Is this some kind of hilarious practical joke?


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« Reply #52 on: June 20, 2013, 01:26:54 AM »

Yeah Sammy but if I DO open AJo then that's an extra 12 combos to add to our c-betting range, which, by this logic, already includes 12 combos of AKo, 12 combos of AQo and 4 combos of each of those suited = another 12 combos. SO, plus the 4 combos of KQs that's 52 combos of overcards (4 of which are the nut/2nd nut fd and 4 of which are the backdoor fd) to add to our value hand range of overpairs, ATs and top set (of which there are 31 combos of a total of 79).

So as you can see, if we are betting AJo then essentially we're betting our entire range (and bear in mind that I've given us a really tight range of KQs+ TT+ AJo+ and ATs just for arguments sake to highlight the mistake), which is so unnecessarily overcard heavy (52 combos of overcards inc. fd's to 31 combos of value hands) when we have plenty of back door and front door flush draws to have in our "air" c-betting range.

In terms of simple mathematics, it's not going to make a profit making a bet where 65.8% of our betting range is made up of overcards, UNLESS we are making an exploitative bet Vs. weak opponents who will not punish us. Unfortunately this is not the case, so AJo become a clear check/fold.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2013, 06:15:10 PM by Nit Tendencies » Logged

Is this some kind of hilarious practical joke?
The Squid
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« Reply #53 on: June 20, 2013, 02:07:01 AM »

Loving your works guys. Really impressive analysis.
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Leatherman
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« Reply #54 on: June 20, 2013, 09:24:20 AM »

Loving your works guys. Really impressive analysis.

   ^^^
  This

Also who is Tommy mf'n C?  Wink
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Satellite King
The Squid
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« Reply #55 on: June 20, 2013, 10:59:49 AM »

Tommy C innit
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