Are we worried about our ICM's?

[theprawnidentity]

Please see sb's stats!!!!

PokerStars - $7.34+$0.66|3000/6000 Ante 600 NL - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 16,372 (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
Hero (BB): 44,115
BTN: 209,513 (VPIP: 30.16, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 64)

3 players post ante of 600, SB posts SB 3,000, Hero posts BB 6,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 10,800) Hero has  A:heart: Q:heart:

BTN raises to 78,000, fold, Hero calls 37,515 and is all-in

[Longy]

Probs should be worried, doubt I would fold in game though but I bet ICM likes folding.

This is a 8/180 right?

[Longy]

Other consideration is that you still are likely to get ICM screwed even if we double up until shorty busts, assuming big stack is competent. So doubling doesn't gives us the great future opportunities that allow us to get back some of that ICM tax.

Blah it is probably technically a fold.

[theprawnidentity]

Yeh $8 180.  Pretty sick, I'm not sure what ICM will say, I have a feeling it might be a call ICM-wise, just.  I know the button is shoving ATC fwiw.

[lucky_scrote]

This is close so I don't think calling is terrible. The chip distribution annoys me.

[LonOhRay]

400
250
140 ish in a 8 180?

99% sure it's a clear fold

[theprawnidentity]

I put it into PT4's icm calculator and it said that calling was +2%, assuming that all the settings were right (I'm not 100% they were but 2% sounds too thin to be anything else)

[LonOhRay]

2% more likely to be range of hands you can call, AKs JJ+ which would be my guess

[theprawnidentity]

Was defo in the edge column. The ranges are shown as hands.  Just wasn't sure what the 2% edge was based on. Can anyone else run some ICM calcs and see what they come up with?

[MC]

Just Wiz it...

Sure am folding though, but it would be nice to know how bad calling is with AJ or whatever.

[theprawnidentity]

Cause im a complete effin idiot, I forgot I purchased ICMIZER a few months ago so I managed to run it for closure.  I have the button pushing 100% of hands and get the following:

I can see this isnt too clear so heres a link to all the results:

http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#IqLZ   (You just have to click calculate)

Interesting that even AKs is -$5.00.

99+ FTW, though 99 only nets us +$2

If were all sicko's like the MC, there would be no money to be made

My concern here though is that if we fold we end up with a 0 edge until something happens with the sb.  The button is gonna continue to rape us and we basically have to sit there and take it.  As all the money in 180's is for 1st I dont really want to sit there and flip for second place.  Is it worth taking -$6 here so we have a resonable edge and opportunity going forward?

It also gets really interesting IF the sb calls!!!!!

[lucky_scrote]

I think it makes it an easy call when the SB calls.