Hand vs RED-DOG at SPT max

[theprawnidentity]

Pretty sure I'm getting berated for this but here goes:

History: played a big pot vs red the orbit before where i runner runnered a flush and got paid otr.

The hand: Tom opens the co and I flat AQdd on the button.  Sb also calls.

Flop KT4 with 4 diamonds,  Tom cbets 1k we do a float and sb folds.

Turn is and red checks, we bet 1650 and red raises to 4050 with 15k behind.

We???

[EvilPie]

 

[Ironside]

Fold the little doggy range is small at this point its kk tt ak aa

[celtic]

Take the pink hoody off and jam.

[TL900]

call

[TightEnd]

Tomsom's view of villain

[outragous76]

Check back turn

As played sigh call and fold unimproved

[TL900]

Check back turn

why?

[Tal]

Tomsom's view of villain

Tomsom is eight feet tall.

[outragous76]

Check back turn

why?

Because I think I have a really good handle of red dogs game and I don't really want him to raise when we bet

[Honeybadger]

Fold the little doggy range is small at this point its kk tt ak aa

Not sure exactly what the pot was after the preflop action, but assuming it was about 1500 preflop hero now has to call 2400 into a pot of 9200. Even if the two pairing flush cards are no good (i.e. villain has a set) then hero still has 10 clean outs. We need 20% equity for a break even call vs a set and we actually have 22% equity. Plus of course we have implied odds on top of this.

As regards checking back the turn... if you are Guy and have some sort of ninja read that villain is very often going to utilise the stack-a-donk move on the turn (i.e. betting flop then check-raising the turn) then by all means check back. You get to realise your equity cheaply, plus you can bluff the river if Tom checks again - it looks like you are pot controlling a mid-strength made hand when you check back the turn (KJ, AT etc) so betting the river for 'thin value' is perfectly credible.

But usually I'd just bet the turn. Villain cannot have a really wide value check-raising range because this would lead to him 'overplaying' his mid-strength hands. So you are not going to get check-raised especially often. And you don't have to necessarily fold when you do get check-raised.

[outragous76]

Difficult to go for a default line here as we don't know stacks


But assuming deep, I have not problem checking turn here vs any even remotely tight villain. Realising your equity in live poker is massively under rated. People don't fold early in mtts. Only hand we beat is qj, so bet turn, bet river works so infrequently that I'm happy to just get there when I have a hand with a tonne of equity against villains on the tighter side this early. 

[Honeybadger]

But assuming deep, I have not problem checking turn here vs any even remotely tight villain. Realising your equity in live poker is massively under rated. People don't fold early in mtts. Only hand we beat is qj, so bet turn, bet river works so infrequently that I'm happy to just get there when I have a hand with a tonne of equity against villains on the tighter side this early.  

Sorry to keep following the same pattern as usual, but I disagree with lots of what you say here Guy.

1. 'But assuming deep'... it is actually a much easier bet when deep than if stacks were rather shallower. Shallower stacks allow villain to c/r his mid-strength value hands as well as his nutted hands, since he is risking less the few times he runs into a nutted part of our range. With deep stacks like here, villain can still c/r his nutted hands but we still have plenty of chips left to play on the river which benefits our hand greatly. And villain cannot really reasonably c/r his mid-strength hands (AA/AK/KQ etc) since he would be overplaying them.

2. 'vs an even remotely tight villain'... we have more fold equity vs a tight villain than against a loose one.

3. 'People don't fold early in mtts'... Huge generalisation. Usually true I accept, but Tom is not a generic loose cally wally.

4. 'Only hand we beat is qj' .... we do beat some air that he cbet on the flop. But this is not the relevant point. We can make him fold some of his weaker made hands on the turn.

5. 'so bet turn, bet river works so infrequently'... we do not necessarily have to bet the river just because we bet the turn.

[Ironside]

I understand the call turn we are getting just under pot odds but dont think we have the implied odds as if we hit flush we dont likely get much called ok straight maybe as its well disguised but by check calling turn we pretty much say we have a draw

[Honeybadger]

Flush is backdoor so we have a reasonable chance of getting paid. We are not definitely marked with a draw once we bet/call the turn. We can have KQ and perhaps AK, plus we can have a set of Ts or set of 4s. But if villain does always puts us on a straight draw then we can bluff any Ace or 9 on the river as well as value betting when we hit a flush or the gutter.