Is this mental?

[Patonius2000]

Jesus, at least have a blocker.

[AlexMartin]

Shouldn't u at least have a blocker for this kind of mentalist move?

i think its this.

i love it though, more spew encourages more spew which ultimately makes the games more fun and better, right? i join in with you dave http://www.pokerhand.org/?6600186

[SuuPRlim]

what would everyone do on the river though?!

bet/3b-jam seems to be a pretty unpopular choice lol with pretty good reason (!) but chking-back, bet/fold and bet/call all reasonable right?

[GreekStein]

what would everyone do on the river though?!

bet/3b-jam seems to be a pretty unpopular choice lol with pretty good reason (!) but chking-back, bet/fold and bet/call all reasonable right?

yup, all very reasonable depending on opponent's stats, tendencies and gameflow etc etc

[SuuPRlim]

150 hands into a HU game, he was playing very tight and has seriously losened up over the last 30 hands (I picked off some big(ish) river bluffs, and he'd begun 3betting pretty aggressively) I've been betting a lot (he'll think too many) turns and have been caught betting flop/turn pretty light.

Are you value-betting cos, and are you calling a c/r?

[GreekStein]

150 hands into a HU game, he was playing very tight and has seriously losened up over the last 30 hands (I picked off some big(ish) river bluffs, and he'd begun 3betting pretty aggressively) I've been betting a lot (he'll think too many) turns and have been caught betting flop/turn pretty light.

Are you value-betting cos, and are you calling a c/r?

that's such a hard question to answer.

I feel like I have a much better idea in game time and only you can get the best idea for that.

[Patonius2000]

I think you should be value betting this river even with the queen blocker. Just fold now, I think you should be barreling a decent amount of two pair/set combos on this board so not too worried about getting exploited by bet bet betting and only ending up with flushes.

I think the river pretty clearly fold>call>jam. I think his value range is KK/JJ/K6 none of which he's folding to a jam (?) and he bluffs like KJxx and maybe some small flush/6x combos that he no longer thinks are good. So yeah against that range and with no blockers or significant reads I think jamming would be really bad.

[Oxford_HRV]

Been playing this guy for 100 or so hands was playing very tight at first and then went a bit loopy. Think he's pretty good tbh.

 if YOU think he's pretty good, then i'm sure they are but any decent player can level themselves into becoming a fish 

lets for a minute forget our perception of the hand and think in Villains reasoning to raise the riverrr, as you say he was playing tight but now is a bit loopy. this could be some ridiculous bluff a fair percentage of the time. you've be owning the guy and picking off a few bluffs, he thinks your turn betting is thin/over aggressive, so it's all the more reason to run over you on this hand and try it away with a nice raise on the river. It sounds silly for him to have KK JJ because it sounds like this villain would raise the flop so frequently, set's on two tone flops in PLO is just dirty, unlucky if he had 33's but i personally think this is credible.

i would also say zero equity bluffs are a lost art too much maths in the game IMO now. not that this hand is zero equity but you may as well not have anything, i love it and wp regardless

[Honeybadger]

Villain is risking 898 to win 490 with his check-raise. This means you should call with 35% of your river betting range, unless you have any reads that he is bluffing too much or too little in this particular spot. Readless, if you call any wider than this then you give him too much value with his nutted hands, and if you call tighter than this you allow him too much 'value' with his bluffs.

It is of course much more difficult to quantitatively visualise combos at PLO compared to NLHE. If 35% of your river betting range is a full house then you do not need to call with any flushes at all. Obviously your range to bet the river is comprised of full houses, flushes and bluffs. Difficult to know exactly what value/bluff ratio you should use for your river bet since if you are betting the nut flush then your range is not fully polarised and thus some of his bluff catchers beat some of your value bets (which is fine of course). But intuitively it feels to me like part of the top 35th percentile of your river betting range is going to be made up of the nut flush for thin value, especially if you are value betting all nut flush combos - even those with 3 diamonds and a Q blocker. And thus you probably DO need to call with some percentage of your nut flushes in order not to be folding too much to his river check-raises. I could be wrong here though - as I said, I find it difficult to accurately visualise combos at PLO.

As regards jamming the river... I think it is bad (again, unless you have some sort of exploitative read). Your value range to jam this river is very narrow, and your opponent is getting a huge price on the call. Which means you are hardly allowed to have any bluff combos in your range. Therefore you should choose only the absolute magnum bluff combos, which in this case probably means only bluffing with specifically KJxx hands, and likely not even all of these.

Obviously, anything can be justified exploitatively if you have a strong read. And I cannot comment on your instinctive judgement of game flow etc. But it seems to me that jamming a hand with zero blockers requires a pretty damn strong read, since it is a huge deviation from theoretically optimal play.

So my (tentative) conclusion is that, since you are betting for thin value with so many nut flushes, you must call the check-raise with some percentage of these nut flushes. With the specific hand you have (3 diamonds and no blockers to full houses) I suspect you should fold though. Otherwise you are calling too much, which means villain gets too much value from his nutted hands, and he has no incentive to bluff.

[jgcblack]

We don't have to win every pot Dave...

[chnren]

anyone have any further thoughts on;

1) Whether to value-bet the river or not?
2) How to respond to his river raise?

1. Value-bet the river is defo standard play i think, check the river gonna lose so much value in the long term.  bet>check
2. The way you jam ATR is sick, I am sure that only advance players are able to do this, and obv you know exactly the logic behind it. The situation you metioned that : he was playing very tight and has seriously losened up over the last 30 hands, we can see he starts little bit mental now, so if he got house here, he is unlikely gonna fold to you. This is also because you have been betting a lot (he'll think too many) turns and have been caught betting flop/turn pretty light. In my point of view,  in this situation jam is bad.  fold>call>jam

[SuuPRlim]

thank you for replies chaps, some very good and accurate responses.

I concur Jamming is bad, I think that if Jamming is ever good then calling is prolly much better, as he will need to be bluffing some reasonable % in order for the jam to show profit, speshly given he can have all the boats and we're unsure if he is going to fold K6 to this play, I think he prolly should exploitativly fold K6 OTR but in theory if he is going to c/r it vs me then he should prolly call with it. TBH if he is going to call K6 then it's not impossible for him to hero me with a bluffing hand WORSE than the NF but we're getting into the realms of ridiculous suggesting this might be a good spot for some sort of merge, JB comes into the thread, shit kicks off!

I think the river provides us with a few interesting decisions. Firstly, whether or not we should value bet, obviously we have a hand that will be called 100% of the time by better hands (33+) will never fold so the "value" of our value-bet comes from i) being called by worse, or ii) him bluffing and us calling, we make no money from folds.

Given my specific hand and how wide he will have called the turn I think we're really struggling to have enough equity VS his range OTR to value-bet, he will fold some flushes for sure and even if we assume he c/r 100% of his KJ combos (which actually I think is a pretty reasonable assumption) I'm pretty sure given the fact he DOES have all the FH's in his range (some a lot less credible than others) then we can't b/c and make enough money from his KJ combo's to compensate for that. The other side to this argument is what this does for my range OTR, checking this hand might leave my river value range slightly polarised, I'm going to get to the river with boats to value-bet and hands to bluff with so this might not be a bad thing. This might be a stylistic preference as I know some people think that as a strategy makes you easier to play vs..

Having said all this, i'm fairly sure the river after the c/r is a call, if we give his river c/r value range as KJ:!20%/KK/K6/22%:dd/KJJ then I think we're gonna need more calls than just KK/JJ/K6/J6/33/36 given the unlikelihood of some of those combos and the fact that I won't bet KK/K6/J6 100% OTT. Can see folding the NF as being a small mistake. However I will look further into this when im a little less hungover, would be interested to hear what everyone thinks...
 

[wazz]

I'm surprised you don't think KK in his range, I think it's a fairly standard play to throw a c/c into the mix from time to time

[SuuPRlim]

I'm surprised you don't think KK in his range, I think it's a fairly standard play to throw a c/c into the mix from time to time

Despite starting out pretty slow, the last 1/3 of the game he had gone pretty fucking aggro, 3betting a lot more and significantly increased front end aggression. I think quite a few KK combos he would 3bet pre=flop, and he'd prolly c/r the flop a lot more often than "usual"

I think c/c the flop is borderline stnd (not stnd but certainly very plausible) on the flop with KK, I just think that in a game at the heat of its intensity and playing out fast and aggressive at this time then he would opt for a c/r more often than usual. Combine those two things and i think he has KK here specifically pretty rarely, although it's certainly possible and even him have 4% of KK combo's (not far-fetched) damages the maths of any play that isn't FOLD kindly badly on the turn.

[SuuPRlim]

BTW, I didn't actually go all-in. I called, but I considered jamming very strongly. Feels like it would have been a silly move after this feedback

Seems to be a theme of the thread that we'd prefer folding, over calling this river...