Satellite spot

[dino1980]

Long time reader, first time poster (for a while) on here...

This is the endgame of an $8r to a $215 PCA qualifier which I am playing for $T and I thought this decision was pretty close, but am admittedly a bit rusty so would like opinions. I’ve ran the hand through ICMIZER but obviously couldn’t do that in game.

Payouts are:
1st $215
2nd $193

Relevant information: The original shover got the chip lead when he previously called off 70% of his stack with sixes against a 10bb shove with seven players left. He’s IIRC running at about 31/30 over a <20 hand sample.

The short stack is a satellite reg and certainly not afraid to blind down lower than his current stack before shoving so he definitely has a decent hand. I’d say 88+ AQo+.

There’s a side pot of 17,900 against the 'looser' player and if we scoop side and main we have approx. 36k of 53k in play and are a lock. Lose both pots and we’re, of course, out. Am I a complete nit for considering folding here? Would you rather call off with 99-QQ?

Seat 1: MrNiIsson (4955 in chips)
Seat 2: betojch (5860 in chips)
Seat 4: dino1980 (14810 in chips)
Seat 5: Fullll925 (13300 in chips)
Seat 9: X_Skyline84 (18575 in chips)
MrNiIsson: posts the ante 75
betojch: posts the ante 75
dino1980: posts the ante 75
Fullll925: posts the ante 75
X_Skyline84: posts the ante 75
betojch: posts small blind 400
dino1980: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [ Ah]
X_Skyline84: raises 17700 to 18500 and is all-in
betojch: calls 5385 and is all-in
dino1980: ??

[jgcblack]

I'm no sat pro but I think its a fine fold with SB as described.

[david3103]

Only the two prizes and we have the chance to get it in vs someone who is opening 30% of pots late in a satellite with AKs?
Downside is that winning only the side pot means that SB who you say is competent then has a comparable stack.
 
Has OR been shoving or raising in the hands we've seen? Have any gone to showdown?

SB may well be prepared to fold to less but his range to call has to be wider than normal given his position.

Hard to see a fold even in a satellite but my satellite credentials are no better than JB's.

[Dry em]

I'm no ICM pro but i've played a few sats. With 2 prizes this feels like a call to me....

[BorntoBubble]

2 prizes id guess call and 3 fold i think.

[TL900]

seems like a snap

[lucky_scrote]

Easy snap

[dino1980]

Only the two prizes and we have the chance to get it in vs someone who is opening 30% of pots late in a satellite with AKs?
Downside is that winning only the side pot means that SB who you say is competent then has a comparable stack.
 
Has OR been shoving or raising in the hands we've seen? Have any gone to showdown?

SB may well be prepared to fold to less but his range to call has to be wider than normal given his position.

Hard to see a fold even in a satellite but my satellite credentials are no better than JB's.

Thanks for the replies everyone...

He had been shoving liberally on the two shorter stacks to his left, which you can debate the merits of given that they're effectively in nothing to lose mode.

FWIW I did call, I certainly felt the big stacks shoving range contained no hands that dominated me, some I dominated and of course plenty I was flipping against. And the the size of the side pot certainly played a part in me calling.

I'd perhaps lean towards folding if the overjammer had closer to 10k and the side pot was of less significance.

[NoCardDSC]

Yer, calling very quickly.