Unlucky or Avoidable??

[PathFinder]

Im currently 2/29

Full Tilt Poker Game #33580497128: Super Stack $5K Guarantee (261804583), Table 15 - NL Hold'em - 2000/4000 Ante 500 - 22:43:26 WET - 2013/12/01 [17:43:26 ET - 2013/12/01]
Seat 1: johnmaximmus (61,164)
Seat 2: LuckManV (56,911)
Seat 3: mdace (150,346)
Seat 4: HERO (201,054)
Seat 5: DRWG (207,609)
Seat 6: BNTP4 (168,654)
Seat 7: Laidback Gus (155,697)
Seat 8: luke2612 (112,934)
Seat 9: velaskez66 (124,557)
johnmaximmus antes 500
LuckManV antes 500
mdace antes 500
HERO antes 500
DRWG antes 500
BNTP4 antes 500
Laidback Gus antes 500
luke2612 antes 500
velaskez66 antes 500
Laidback Gus posts the small blind of 2,000
luke2612 posts the big blind of 4,000
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [   ]
velaskez66 folds
johnmaximmus folds
LuckManV raises to 56,411, and is all in
mdace folds
HERO raises to 200,554, and is all in
DRWG folds
BNTP4 calls 168,154, and is all in
Laidback Gus folds
luke2612 folds
HERO shows [   ]
BNTP4 shows [   ]
LuckManV shows [   ]


So due to the big stack behind am i suppose to call the all in and fold to the overshove?? Or is isolating with this hand the best play and i was just unlucky to run into a hand?

[nirvana]

Probably just fold

[polerization]

Probably just fold

for real?

[nirvana]

Probably just fold

for real?

Yuh, think I would from this position

[theprawnidentity]

I maybe wouldn't go as far as to say I would rather cut my dick off and throw that away, but I defo iso here as long as the shover isn't a complete nit.

[polerization]

Probably just fold

for real?

Yuh, think I would from this position

were re-shoving the hijack right? so would you just outright fold 10's here in the same way?

[Flash92]

I think a shove here is the best play... Kinda the worst possible outcome for you, but I think you played it correct.


How bad can a fold be though guys?

[doubleup]

Probably just fold

for real?

Yuh, think I would from this position

were re-shoving the hijack right? so would you just outright fold 10's here in the same way?

I doubt he would open shove 50bbs from hijack, if that's any help

 

[theprawnidentity]

Ran some numbers (cEV) for this bad boy.

I assumed that all opps overcall with AQs+ and JJ+.

If OR shoves 16% (22+,A4s+,A8o+,KTs+,KQo) we would net:

Click to see full-size image.

If OR only shoves 10% (55+,A8s+,ATo+,KQs) we would net:

Click to see full-size image.

[nirvana]

Ran some numbers (cEV) for this bad boy.

I assumed that all opps overcall with AQs+ and JJ+.

If OR shoves 16% (22+,A4s+,A8o+,KTs+,KQo) we would net:

Click to see full-size image.

If OR only shoves 10% (55+,A8s+,ATo+,KQs) we would net:

Click to see full-size image.

I just ROFL around so don't understand any of this - what does it mean, if it's easy for you to explain concisely

[theprawnidentity]

Basically you plug in all the ranges, and it works out how much equity you have in each situation.  Situation 1 takes into account that OR shoves 16% of hands, assuming that all opps will overcall AQs+ JJ+, we will net 13,017 chips on average from this situation.  That red table shows all the profitable iso hands in blue, and all the unprofitable iso hands in red, along with how many chips you will gain / lose on average.

I would add as well that this in only cEV, and doesn't really take into account the full picture.

[nirvana]

Basically you plug in all the ranges, and it works out how much equity you have in each situation.  Situation 1 takes into account that OR shoves 16% of hands, assuming that all opps will overcall AQs+ JJ+, we will net 13,017 chips on average from this situation.  That red table shows all the profitable iso hands in blue, and all the unprofitable iso hands in red, along with how many chips you will gain / lose on average.

I would add as well that this in only cEV, and doesn't really take into account the full picture.

Cheers, not a massive mistake (assuming we're not in these positions 500 times a day) to drop the bottom end of our +ev calling range ?

[polerization]

Probably just fold

for real?

Yuh, think I would from this position

I didn't mean that haha saying more are we open then folding to a 3-bet sort of situation?

were re-shoving the hijack right? so would you just outright fold 10's here in the same way?

I doubt he would open shove 50bbs from hijack, if that's any help

 

[theprawnidentity]

Cheers, not a massive mistake (assuming we're not in these positions 500 times a day) to drop the bottom end of our +ev calling range ?

It's an edge big enough for me to take every time.  Especially if I know the shover is capable of shoving wide.  A 3.25bb gain vs a 14bb stack is pretty substantial, not only that, we still have plenty to work with even if we lose.  Obviously this doesn't take into account getting called behind, but this will only happen roughly 1 in 10.

In summary, if I know the shover to be capable of shoving 16% of hands, I'm fist pumping in my hoody.

[nirvana]

Cheers, not a massive mistake (assuming we're not in these positions 500 times a day) to drop the bottom end of our +ev calling range ?

It's an edge big enough for me to take every time.  Especially if I know the shover is capable of shoving wide.  A 3.25bb gain vs a 14bb stack is pretty substantial, not only that, we still have plenty to work with even if we lose.  Obviously this doesn't take into account getting called behind, but this will only happen roughly 1 in 10.

In summary, if I know the shover to be capable of shoving 16% of hands, I'm fist pumping in my hoody.

Appreciate you taking the time, thanks