Magnum FT - 3 close decisions

[WotRTheChances]

Villain playing 29/25/15 over 150 hands. Haven't played a lot of pots with him tbh, not seen him do anything terrible or noteworthy, but clearly he's playing pretty aggro and he has just become chipleader (i just lost TT<66 vs Blesss).

Winamax Poker - Tournament "MAGNUM" buyIn: €45 + €5 level: 22 - HandId: #289009899831033866-369-1388692328 - Holdem no limit (2500/10000/20000) - 2014/01/02 19:52:08 UTC
Table: 'MAGNUM(67290361)#009' 6-max (real money) Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Quelles_Sont (913731)
Seat 2: play2push (1226265)
Seat 3: donnidu60 (406170)
Seat 4: Blesss (843208)
Seat 5: Nadizi (870626)
ANTE/BLINDS
Blesss posts ante 2500
Nadizi posts ante 2500
Quelles_Sont posts ante 2500
play2push posts ante 2500
donnidu60 posts ante 2500
Blesss posts small blind 10000
Nadizi posts big blind 20000
Dealt to Quelles_Sont
[KC] [10C]
PRE-FLOP
Quelles_Sont raises 20000 to 40000
play2push raises 54555 to 94555
donnidu60 folds
Blesss folds
Nadizi folds
Quelles_Sont calls 54555
FLOP
[JH] [10H] [8S]
Quelles_Sont checks
play2push bets 88888
Quelles_Sont calls 88888
TURN
[JH] [10H] [8S] [KD]
Quelles_Sont checks
play2push bets 135655
Quelles_Sont calls 135655
RIVER
[JH] [10H] [8S] [KD] [AS]
Quelles_Sont checks
play2push bets 244444
Quelles_Sont

Pre-flop seems close, obviously this guy is going to be 3-betting super super wide here and looking to put pressure on post. Felt like I had a hand which will dominate him a reasonable amount of the time and flops really well, but maybe folding is best OOP given ICM and maybe just generally?

Flop also seems close, while i've flopped middle-pair and have some backdoor stuff and just have the best hand most of the time, i'm going to be put under pressure a lot and there are a lot of bad runouts i'll have to fold on.

Turn seems like a slam-dunk call having peeled flop.

River is also one for discussion. I know he's super-wide pre and will be looking to barrel on good runouts for him. So this is a runout I expect him to take this line a lot.... but also gives him the best hand a lot too (assuming he doesn't ever show up with complete random zero-equity triple barrells here much if ever)

Payouts are:

2255.91 + 150e seat ticket (for winaseries ME)
1407.56 + 150e seat ticket
1150.20
910.57
670.95

[rfgqqabc]

Wp until the river. I think flop is fine, calling on the turn is the only real option imo. River he only bets straights right? Never going for thin with a set? Would he checkback QJ ott? Seems like it might be a call with how polarised he is. I don't think he'd bet AA either on the turn so he is pretty draw heavy.

Thoughts on 4betting pre?

[WotRTheChances]

River he only bets straights right? Never going for thin with a set? Would he checkback QJ ott?.

I'm not sure if he only bets a Q for value. He could bet sets and maybe even Aces up hands for value potentially? (we can assume he'll check back better 2-pair hands a reasonable %, given Qx is a non-negligible part of my range OTR). I feel if he has AK here he's betting most of the time tbh.

Seems like it might be a call with how polarised he is. I don't think he'd bet AA either on the turn so he is pretty draw heavy

I think it's very close. It's quite dependent on the previous bit of your post. Assuming he doesn't barrel complete air, he will have a Q a decent amount and would surely check-back a lot of hands with SDV? So we only really beat 8x, Jx or Tx he's turning into a bluff?

Thoughts on 4betting pre?

Definitely considered it, but felt the hand was possibly too good to turn into a bluff given how well it flops and how wide villain is 3-betting. Felt I was more comfortable playing it post than clicking around pre.

[WotRTheChances]

Another point i'd like to highlight from the OP is that this player had been playing 29/20/15 BEFORE he'd become CL and I think people who have just become CL and have already shown to be pretty aggro will generally try and start 3-betting very wide ASAP. Sure he can have good hands pre, but I can't see him not 3-betting Ax or many Kxs hands + just loads of other suited stuff.... and possibly just complete random hands. Not sure how many of the complete junk combos he'll triple barrel though.

[rfgqqabc]

Another point i'd like to highlight from the OP is that this player had been playing 29/20/15 BEFORE he'd become CL and I think people who have just become CL and have already shown to be pretty aggro will generally try and start 3-betting very wide ASAP. Sure he can have good hands pre, but I can't see him not 3-betting Ax or many Kxs hands + just loads of other suited stuff.... and possibly just complete random hands. Not sure how many of the complete junk combos he'll triple barrel though.

Shoving might be better than calling if he bets too thinly, I don't think he will be though. Its hard for him to have many Qx combos as most check at some point imo, (QJ,QT,KQ) however this does seem the perfect river to keep bluffing on. I know I'm not really answering your qn here. I do agree with your point that people do get more aggro having just got the cl. This is a very strange spot.

[TL900]

think i like folding we do have some Qx in our range and i dont give people in a 50 euro fo on winamax credit to vbet AK here or something. Think KQ for him makes alot of sense tbh.

Up to river seems good.

[lucky_scrote]

I know you don't have a huge lead on 3rd and 4th, but busting is so bad for ICM although doubling up is amazingggggggggg.

What is the CL like? If he's not terrible then I just fold preflop in this scenario. Normally, I flick it in here as KTs is a fun hand when they don't 4bet massive and you're not shallow.