$55 MTT brutal river spot

[gs08bjohnson]

PokerStars Hand #109577216438: Tournament #840211666, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2014/01/04 16:33:50 WET [2014/01/04 11:33:50 ET]
Table '840211666 6' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: RomeOpro (1853 in chips)
Seat 2: Gottonik (2975 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (2663 in chips)
Seat 4: Ysjah (2600 in chips)
Seat 5: vujcic44 (4054 in chips)
Seat 6: colobok68 (3050 in chips)
Seat 7: gs08bjohnson (6907 in chips)
Seat 8: wejo13 (2923 in chips)
Seat 9: Popiedejopie (2965 in chips)
colobok68: posts small blind 50
gs08bjohnson: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gs08bjohnson [ ]
wejo13: folds
Popiedejopie: folds
RomeOpro: folds
Gottonik: folds
Villain: raises 100 to 200
Ysjah: folds
vujcic44: folds
colobok68: folds
gs08bjohnson: calls 100
*** FLOP *** [ ]
gs08bjohnson: checks
Villain: bets 200
gs08bjohnson: calls 200
*** TURN *** [ ] []
gs08bjohnson: checks
Villain: bets 385
gs08bjohnson: calls 385
*** RIVER *** [ ]

gs08bjohnson: checks Villain: bets 1878 and is all-in gs08bjohnson I have 300 hands on the villain who is playing 13/11/3.5 so seems pretty tight, although I suspect these are largely pre-ante hands. Thoughts?

[Longy]

River is??

[david3103]

River is??

Obviously not parsley

[BorntoBubble]

if its a club im calling.

[gs08bjohnson]

LOLdon't know why that got left off.

Offsuit T, let's say 

[polerization]

LOLdon't know why that got left off.

Offsuit T, let's say 

I call this river with the 2 pair even with the shove think i have the best hand a hell of a lot.

[lucky_scrote]

So you can only beat worse 2 pairs (not many) and hands tuned into bluffs rather than outright bluffs.  Problem is your hand is  so under-repped so my mouse ain't going near the fold button this time.

[SuuPRlim]

is our hand that under-repped? looks a lot like Ax - AT/A8/A6 all very much in our range OTR no? also have like A9, AJ ofc, I guess we also have ,  ,    and I spose we'd have the offsuit Q8's in our pre-flop range as well.

I think theoretically you're just a bit too far up your range to fold but it's a big bet and this certainly could be a spot for an exploitative fold (he's never bluffing AI here, win't be value-betting correctly etc w/e reason you have) however I think you can beat a couple of value-bets which prolly JUST makes it a call for me, he can have A6 A8 Q8? horrible though, hating it.

[gs08bjohnson]

You think people who never bluff here - not my assumption (but probably reasonable here) - will overbet rip q8/a6/a8 for value?

[SuuPRlim]

You think people who never bluff here - not my assumption (but probably reasonable here) - will overbet rip q8/a6/a8 for value?

I don't think people will never bluff, I was saying if YOU have that assumption, you could make what I think would be an exploitative fold. Prolly not Q8, but A8 I would imagine so - obviously maybe not now I know who the opponent is but like anything that is exploitative your reads on the player will play a big part.

I think if you have nothing whatsoever on this guy, then I would think calling is best.

[Mondeoman]

I think i fold for the following reasons. 
i)  If the pre-flop stats are anywhere near true villain doesn't have hardly any 2 pair combos that you beat i.e. a6/q8 etc.  So i don't really think you beat any value hands.
ii)  On a AQ6810 board its pretty hard for villain not to have some kind of showdown value and the only real no showdown draw of KJ got there on the river.  This coupled with villains tight opening range you can prob rule out random k5ss type hands.  Basically most villains and esp some one opening tight will have a decent piece of the board and wont feel the need to bluff river.  They've basically got to be turning a made hand into a bluff and i cant see that many made hands bluffing here (J10/910 maybe?).  Either way i doubt they are bluffing a high enough percentage of the time to make a call profitable.

[lucky_scrote]

Pretty hard for villain to not have showdown value and pretty hard for villain to not have a pair are two completely different things.

[david3103]

If villain isn't bluffing then wtf can he have that he value bets and we beat?

[verndog158]

thin value with AK?

[lucky_scrote]

If villain isn't bluffing then wtf can he have that he value bets and we beat?

It's obvious to me if villain is never bluffing that this would be a fold.