Call or Raise?

[The Camel]

£50 rebuy tournament.

Just finished the rebuy period blinds are 400-800/100

I have 50k, Villain has me covered (just - he has about 58-60k)

I'm new to the table, and villain is a complete unknown. he's about 40, smartly dressed and looks studious.

I open in the cutoff to 1800 with 66.

BB defends.

Flop JT6 with two diamonds.

He checks, I bet 2500. He calls.

Turn is a black 9.

He checks again, I bet 6000. He dwells up for a long time. I *think* he's contemplating a raise rather than a fold, but eventually flats.

River is the 9 of diamonds.

He fairly quickly bets out 10k.

We?

[The Squid]

Without reads just call - Stacks seem awkward to raise fold.

[muckthenuts]

I'd raise. Sizing seems a bit blocky and not nutted - there's not a bunch that beats us combo wise and he'll have a flush/straight a lot of the time. I'd make it 25k/fold, like enough to look potentially like a bluff but not so much that his curiosity won't get the better of him.

[muckthenuts]

If he quickly bet 10k in two chips worth of denominations i'm inclined to raise even more.

(mods: didn't seem to have option of editing my post to get that in)

[gouty]

32k in the pot. Call seems lovely.

[gouty]

Is this a 50p thread? You call and he shows quads.

I am trying to think what hands a probably solid/nitty player leads river with,that has called that flop? I don't think he would with a flush.

[lucky_scrote]

Raise. You're good here so often. There are so few boat combos he can have as played. The only hand that makes sense you're losing to is J9 and possibly 9T. Depending on villain he folds the odd suit combos pre anyway 

I also wouldn't worry about having to raise fold because we only going to do it with a boat and you're going to get flushes to call by almost everyone here. There are also quite a few diamond combos (naturally) so it seems a great spot to make it like 23k or so.

[The Camel]

Not a 50p thread at all.

I called and was good.

He had KQ.

There was general incredulity at the table I didn't raise, including some dark muttering of "soft play"

If stacks were deeper I would have raised, but raise/folding didn't seem like an option here.

And if he shoves I'm not good very often, right?

[lucky_scrote]

You can raise fold, ignore that the fact the stacks are a little awkward. They are only awkward because when you do raise fold you have lost almost all your chips.

The combo of straights and flushes are pretty high compared to FH combos, he might fold to a raise but he will more often call and never raise.

[muckthenuts]

Well if he jams then he just has the absolute top of his range in this spot so we have to fold, but that's no reason not to raise for value in the first place.

[DMorgan]

Flatting river seems insanely nitty, he just peeled cutoff vs button and while your smartly dressed 40 year old is more likely to be flatting the JJ/TT in that spot than most we still have to discount them to some extent and he has a ton of combos of flushes and straights and flushes. Even if he only ever calls the raise with A/K high flushes they still far outweigh his boat combos and you're not getting bluff jammed on by worse on a paired board.

I make it 26.5k and if he jams just fold.

If stacks were deeper I would have raised, but raise/folding didn't seem like an option here.

Can you elaborate on this a bit? Wondering if theres something I'm missing here

[The Camel]

Flatting river seems insanely nitty, he just peeled cutoff vs button and while your smartly dressed 40 year old is more likely to be flatting the JJ/TT in that spot than most we still have to discount them to some extent and he has a ton of combos of flushes and straights and flushes. Even if he only ever calls the raise with A/K high flushes they still far outweigh his boat combos and you're not getting bluff jammed on by worse on a paired board.

I make it 26.5k and if he jams just fold.

If stacks were deeper I would have raised, but raise/folding didn't seem like an option here.

Can you elaborate on this a bit? Wondering if theres something I'm missing here

Getting 6/1ish for my remaining 15k, I don't think I'm passing if I raise and he shoves.

Can I ever be 85%+ certain I'm beat in that spot?

With reads I guess it's possible.

Readless, I'm not a good enough player to do that.

[lucky_scrote]

I think raise calling is still even better than just flatting though. Admittedly I've called the river here when I've planned to fold because I'm tilted but I pretty much only ever do that if I'm steaming.

[George2Loose]

Aren't we in danger of folding the best and if we raise/fold here in this type of comp? I've seen people do all sorts of dumb shit. He might jam over with KQ

[hatthehole]

i jam