Not sure I like the fact that in the horse racing pools you get an auto pick of fav if your selection is a non runner. I am pretty sure there are people who pick confirmed non-runners in order that it's an effective free roll against the rest of the field.
It's a good point, and one that we discussed in depth when we first set up the fantasy racing pools. We decided that it is actually nowhere near as much of an issue as it might at first appear. Let me explain...
First, we do not put out the fantasy racing pools until the morning of the race,
after the overnight non-runners have been declared, and we only put up declared runners. This means that only non-runners that are declared between around 10am and the close of the pool (usually around 1pm) are a potential problem. There will obviously be a few of these, but not too many.
Second, it is not always an advantage to be on the favourite anyway. In fact, in many cases it will be a bad strategy. This is pools betting, which means that part of the skill is to 'go against the crowd'. It is not just about getting the answer right as often as possible, it is about balancing this aspect with trying to make sure that you are not sharing your answer with too many others. In pools with a decent number of entrants a strategy of backing only favourites is likely to be a losing one. Longshot theory takes over.
Third, the option is open to everyone. So if you want to follow this strategy then you are welcome to (don't forget you can change your answers right up until the pool closes). But this is connected to the second point - it is usually not going to be a winning strategy.
Take it to an imagined extreme. Imagine that you are in a pool with 10 other players, and all of them decide to 'angle shoot' by choosing known non-runners for each race. This means that every one of them will be on the same selections (the SP favourites). This is a GREAT spot for you. Because, in effect, you only have to beat one player - but you receive 10 to 1 on your money. And your 10 opponents would be in a horrendously -EV situation. You'd be printing money in this spot! Of course it is (probably) never going to happen exactly like this - it is an imagined extreme. But the principle applies in a diluted form in every pool. In pools betting, these 'obvious +EV strategies' often actually turn out to be -EV strategies.
Finally, we needed to make sure that users who pick a horse that turns out to be a non-runner are not punished. This is especially important for users who just 'want a punt', because some of these guys might unknowingly select a horse that is
already a non-runner (i.e. it has been withdrawn between 10am and 1pm). We don't want these users to feel done over in this case, hence the rule that a non-runner selection is automatically transferred to the SP favourite.
In the end, we needed to find a solution to the non-runner issue and we felt that this is the best solution. Yes, it may lead to the occasional opportunity for angle-shooting. But, as explained above, in most cases the EV of trying this angle is illusory - and often it will actually become a -EV strategy.
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