How do you price this up?

[The Camel]

Prematch Team A are 1/3

First half they totally boss the game, 6 corners, 60%+ possession, 7 shots on goal with 3 on target.

Team B have only managed a couple of long range roffle's at goal.

But the Team B keeper is inspired form and Team A's star striker missed one very easy chance and they go in the break 0-0

Team A are now 4/7

Finally in the 65th minute all the pressure pays off and Team A knock one in.

1/14 now.

But in the 70th minute it threatens to go pear shaped.

Team B's striker streaks clear of the defence but is brought down by the keeper as he is about to stick it in the net.

Penalty and red card!

But the sub keeper saves it!

Team A are now 1/7 to win the match

The match progresses. Team B put a little pressure on, but don't have any clear cut chances.. until in the 85th minute Team A's hard man in midfield commits a horrible two footed tackle and is given a straight red!

So 85 minutes gone. We are guessing 3 or 4 minutes injury time. Team A 1-0 up, 1/3 pre match but 2 red cards.

What price do you think they are now?

(Sorry for the long post, but having a huge debate with someone about this - and the prices we have come up with are way apart. Interested in other people's opinion!)

[The Camel]

.

[RobS]

I think about 2/7. Assuming still have substitution available and can take off a forward for a defensive midfielder.

[doubleup]

yeah I think about that a 73% chance

[DungBeetle]

haven't read other responses but I'm going 1.3 for Team A to hold out and win

[The Camel]

Heh.

Thanks guys.

I guess that was inevitable.

I thought Team A was 1/5 or 1/6 whereas my sparring partner thought 4/6 or 4/7

The correct answer was always going to be somewhere in the middle obviously!

[redarmi]

I would be even shorter than you Keith fwiw.  I think somewhere in the region of 1/8.  It depends a bit on the teams and how important the players are but they havent lost a defender which is important so the effect is a bit less than it would be if they had lost two defenders.  Really it is more a case of them forfeiting the chance to win the game there and then than a massive increase in the other teams likliehood to score (obv losing the keeper can be important there but in 8-9 minutes the impact is fairly negligible).

[Chompy]

6/1 if it's Peterborough.

[JoeBeevers]

Before I scrolled all the way down to your answer I was thinking about 80-85%.

[The Camel]

The price available was 1/2, and I thought that was a great bet.

But I was talking on messenger to a mate and I rapidly described what the situation was and his price was 4/6 or 4/7.

So I left it

[JoeBeevers]

How would you bet in the same situation where the teams were evenly matched with 11 men (and both priced similarly pre-game) but the same situation has arisen in that home team are 1-0 up but down to 9 men having had two attacking players sent off and with 5 mins +added time left?

What price the team leading now?

[The Camel]

How would you bet in the same situation where the teams were evenly matched with 11 men (and both priced similarly pre-game) but the same situation has arisen in that home team are 1-0 up but down to 9 men having had two attacking players sent off and with 5 mins +added time left?

What price the team leading now?

I don't it's wildly different.

You'd think the team which were losing would send on at least 1, probably 2 extra attackers.

A little bit shorter - 1/7 or 1/8 maybe, but not 1/12 or anything like that.

[JoeBeevers]

How would you bet in the same situation where the teams were evenly matched with 11 men (and both priced similarly pre-game) but the same situation has arisen in that home team are 1-0 up but down to 9 men having had two attacking players sent off and with 5 mins +added time left?

What price the team leading now?

I don't it's wildly different.

You'd think the team which were losing would send on at least 1, probably 2 extra attackers.

A little bit shorter - 1/7 or 1/8 maybe, but not 1/12 or anything like that.

Maybe I have missed something. In your example the team that are winning 1-0 are a superior team (1/3 pre-match). In my example the team winning 1-0 were about 7/4 pre-match. In your scenario the team leading 1-0 is far superior in skill set than mine and so the price of my team holding on to the lead should be a bigger price not shorter.

[The Camel]

How would you bet in the same situation where the teams were evenly matched with 11 men (and both priced similarly pre-game) but the same situation has arisen in that home team are 1-0 up but down to 9 men having had two attacking players sent off and with 5 mins +added time left?

What price the team leading now?

I don't it's wildly different.

You'd think the team which were losing would send on at least 1, probably 2 extra attackers.

A little bit shorter - 1/7 or 1/8 maybe, but not 1/12 or anything like that.

Maybe I have missed something. In your example the team that are winning 1-0 are a superior team (1/3 pre-match). In my example the team winning 1-0 were about 7/4 pre-match. In your scenario the team leading 1-0 is far superior in skill set than mine and so the price of my team holding on to the lead should be a bigger price not shorter.

Oh sorry, I misread your scenario.

Maybe a shade of odds on? 4/5?

[JoeBeevers]

How would you bet in the same situation where the teams were evenly matched with 11 men (and both priced similarly pre-game) but the same situation has arisen in that home team are 1-0 up but down to 9 men having had two attacking players sent off and with 5 mins +added time left?

What price the team leading now?

I don't it's wildly different.

You'd think the team which were losing would send on at least 1, probably 2 extra attackers.

A little bit shorter - 1/7 or 1/8 maybe, but not 1/12 or anything like that.

Maybe I have missed something. In your example the team that are winning 1-0 are a superior team (1/3 pre-match). In my example the team winning 1-0 were about 7/4 pre-match. In your scenario the team leading 1-0 is far superior in skill set than mine and so the price of my team holding on to the lead should be a bigger price not shorter.

Oh sorry, I misread your scenario.

Maybe a shade of odds on? 4/5?

I would have it a little bit shorter.

I was trying to illustrate that your offer of 1/2 was value, in my eyes anyway at least.