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Author Topic: Measuring RunBad  (Read 5418 times)
RED-DOG
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« Reply #30 on: March 03, 2014, 06:28:28 PM »

lol sorry i've re-read my post it sounds a little patronising (forgive me I'm very hungover today)



Not at all. It was a bad choice if word, and pointing it out helped me understand your explanation.


Text is such a difficult medium sometimes.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #31 on: March 03, 2014, 06:50:01 PM »

Yes, it's pretty easy to look at a single session, it says you ran -57396308 below ev, but really that's pretty meaningless as it's so easily distorted. But, if you have a huge sample over say a year and are losing, then you look at bb/100 vs evbb/100 with antes and it says you aren't running bad then you almost certainly have leaks, that's a helpful 1st step to plugging said leaks. I do agree though that close to a 100% of people that use these stats do it far too frequently and use meaningless numbers as an easy excuse.

I don't really agree with that (not in my games anyway) I'd say that AIEV is about one of the least relevant stats (along with bb/100 as well actually) if you need to look at 1years sample size and to see that you're not running bad to realise you have leaks then you have way bigger problems. "leak-busting" is a continuous progress where you constantly look at your play and use the information you have about your play to the best of your ability - no-one is ever fully "leak-busted" as just as good parts come into your game bad parts will do as well.

However - even if I felt that AIEV was a relevant stat for analysis on my game, most people (and I mean nearly ALL people) aren't mentally capable of using the information well (I certainly am not) - just IMO ofc. hence why I've removed the stat from my tracker and won't be looking at it again.

The fact is, if you play online for a living, and you survive long enough, than at some stage it's very likely you are going to be in the tiny percentile who have a stage of running absolutely horrendous, suck it up and play good and it'll be over a lot quicker than if you let it fuck with your head.

Anyone who is a professional poker player has, imo, run incredibly good.

I was speaking to some guys on skype receently who said he'd done a "variance simulation" or something like that for 6m PLO, he said the deviation from EV was 180bb/100 so (sample of 2.5m hands), for me who's survived playing online poker full time for a fair few years I must have run very very well in the timing and severity of my downswings/upswings.

I'd like to think that the quality of emotional/personal/technical decisions I've made over the course of my career have given me a big advantage but in realty when I started out I was a huge favorite to fail and required a great deal of good fortune not to.
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mondatoo
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« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2014, 07:00:29 PM »

A year was an over exaggeration tbh, and yeah there will be better ways to find leaks, but a lot of people aren't aware of them, or how to use them, just saying that there are positives to get from the numbers, if used appropriately.

I had a similar discussion, I could've quite feasibly started out and had the results that I'm currently getting, I would've just thought I was terrible and quit a long time ago and never gave poker another look. To be able to make a decent living from staring at a screen clicking buttons you'd be hard pressed to convince the 50 year old woman who cleans toilets for minimum wage that you aren't running pretty good in life.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2014, 07:03:45 PM »

yeh, effectively we're talking about maintaining objectivity throughout bad (and indeed good) runs at poker.

I don't think I'm capable of doing it, so I just don't look D

But we're basically in agreement Tongue
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« Reply #34 on: March 04, 2014, 11:21:44 AM »

But as I say it can't just be a case of 'suck it up buttercup', as that's almost like sticking your head in the sand.  I was looking for a measure, almost as a starting point. A flow chart: Am I running bad? > Yes > Look at leakbuster Leakbuster > Do more HH reviews > watch vids

That kinda thing. Almost a way of not being certain if I was running bad or was just bad - and then facing up to facts. Obviously addressing play issues and/or mental game issues in the aftermath.

Tbh I think suck it up buttercup is exactly the way to look at it, change the flow chart to;

Am I playing 100% perfect poker > no > think about your game > HH reviews > watch vids /articles etc > am I now playing 100% perfect poker > no > think more about your game (and so on) how good or bad you are running has no need to be in there! That would be implying that we would never need to do any work on our poker if we were running good...

It will also distract from your enjoyment of the game quite significantly if the starting point for any thought about poker is "am I running bad"

If I had a penny for every time I say "how's things?" And the snap answer is "60buyins under EV this month" ....
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« Reply #35 on: March 04, 2014, 02:55:32 PM »

I mean everyone will have their own opinions on how best to analyse their game for leaks, and would be arrogant for anyone to say they know better than anyone else when its quite a personal thing, but my personal opinion is that a measure of run-bad or EV etc has no place along the leak-busting process.

I've taken measures to actively remove it from mine lol
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