100NL Zoom River Spot

[rbc_mike]

Been thinking about this hand for a while:

PokerStars Zoom Hand #112404589514:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00)
Table 'Triangulum' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: speedfist71 ($94.80 in chips)
Seat 2: MRPANIC_NL ($62.81 in chips)
Seat 3: HERO ($160.55 in chips)
Seat 4: SkyIine ($100 in chips)
Seat 5: kobib93 ($118.95 in chips)
Seat 6: NunoStaMaria ($107.42 in chips)
MRPANIC_NL: posts small blind $0.50
HERO: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [ ]
SkyIine: folds
kobib93: folds
NunoStaMaria: raises $2 to $3
speedfist71: folds
MRPANIC_NL: folds
HERO: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [ ]
HERO: checks
NunoStaMaria: bets $4
HERO: calls $4
*** TURN *** [ ] []
HERO: checks
NunoStaMaria: bets $9
HERO: calls $9
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
HERO: checks
NunoStaMaria: bets $22
HERO: ?

On the river my natural instinct was to c/jam. Could rep a range of missed draws, turning pair and straight draw hands into bluffs, but could also get worst 2 pair to call.

Perhaps though c/c is better? What is the villain's range for bet bet b/c on the river? I'd think it was weighted to hands that I can only bluff catch against with  ?

From villains perspective too, I would probably c/r a set on the flop or turn, and would be three betting JJ and KK pre.

I think peel pre or 3bet is fine, but felt like my hand has good post flop playability oop. KJo I'd be more inclined to three bet.

Villain seems standardish, have a very small 20 hand sample over which he was running 14/13. So no real inferences at this stage, perhaps on the tighter side but 20 hands is nothing.

Thoughts on all streets please; think flop is standard, turn could c/r but want him to continue with his double barrels with air, and want to protect my range for when I have weaker hands that c/c twice..

[dwayne110]

I like your play so far, and I like the check jam too... he'll likely call off with  AK and Aces which are a decent part of his range given his play, and I think we have to value raise here given the action. The check shove def looks more bluffy from his perspective too; given the stack sizes a raise as opposed to a shove smacks of strength... If he's flopped a set or whatever then ul, but reckon we lose a lot of value not raising the river in the long run by just check calling

[pleno1]

I like your play so far, and I like the check jam too... he'll likely call off with  AK and Aces which are a decent part of his range given his play, and I think we have to value raise here given the action. The check shove def looks more bluffy from his perspective too; given the stack sizes a raise as opposed to a shove smacks of strength... If he's flopped a set or whatever then ul, but reckon we lose a lot of value not raising the river in the long run by just check calling

He also has every set and a bunch f straight combos.

[muckthenuts]

I think you have the best hand here quite a bit, it's just how many of those hands we have beat will call otr since they're gonna consist of mainly missed draw combos and some of the better 1 pair hands. He has a bunch that beats you too ofc. But vs an unknown here i'd probably be inclined to jam and hope we get called light. 

[dwayne110]

So as played in this spot, what would you do pleno? Your reply suggests a call/fold OTR?

[UpTheMariners]

Whether to shove or not is all down to whether you think he would bet/call the river with AA, AK, KQ, KT, K9s. Given the board texture, I've discounted a little as I think he will call and fold some and have us at 56% therefore it is a shove. If you think they're always folding top pair or OP to a shove then just call and exploit them in other ways.  

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.25 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jh7h6d5dKc
PLAYER_1 KdJd
PLAYER_2 AA,AxKx,AxKy,KK,KxJx,Kx7x,KxJy,JJ,9x8x,77-55,7x6x,6x5x
39 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
KdJd	56.4103%	51.2821%	10.2564%	20	4
AA,AxKx,AxKy,KK,KxJx...	43.5897%	38.4615%	10.2564%	15	4

[JustinSayne]

15 combos beat you. Find another 15 that he calls with that you beat and you have a +ev jam

[AlexMartin]

cc ainec (iav)

[wazz]

cc ainec (iav)

This!

15 combos beat you. Find another 15 that he calls with that you beat and you have a b/e jam

FYP!

[Junior Senior]

Fold pre.
As played, check call and expect to be good more than not. But also expect to be beaten too. Dont think you can do anything byt check call the river

[Honeybadger]

Fold pre.

WTF? I am as nitty as anyone, but this is never, ever a fold pre.

[SuuPRlim]

cc ainec (iav)

This!

15 combos beat you. Find another 15 that he calls with that you beat and you have a b/e jam

FYP!

Assuming he calls 100%

[pleno1]

yeah just call 4 times and be happy about it.

[Junior Senior]

Fold pre.

WTF? I am as nitty as anyone, but this is never, ever a fold pre.

You are obviously not as nitty as me. :-)
Yeah maybe a peel and call all the way in reality.

[titaniumbean]

Fold pre.

WTF? I am as nitty as anyone, but this is never, ever a fold pre.

You are obviously not as nitty as me. :-)
Yeah maybe a peel and call all the way in reality.

we could open fold kings if we want to win the nitty war.


this is a great playable hand that flops well making it an easy defend.