Sick Spot in a Sat

[shipitgood]

I'm in the bb with  

Blinds are 75/150, I have 3844 chips, UTG, limps, next guy jams for 5572. Every else folds it's on me, what would you do call or fold?

There is 3 seats and 6 players remaining. The villain jamming has just lost a big pot  the previous hand Q10 Versus 45, board 4,5,10,q, (all in on turn) river is a 5. I though he could be steaming after that hand.

There is 2 players with 5k/6k, I have 3.8, the rest have about 1.1-1.3k, if I win this hand I've pretty much got a seat locked.



Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
Eyeman  Small blind   75.00  75.00  6264.40  
Hero  Big blind   150.00  225.00  3844.96  
   Your hole cards  J J          
nellsonr  Call   150.00  375.00  2000.00  
fowler1986  All-in   5197.50  5572.50  0.00  
Rigsby10  Fold      
pedram  Fold      
Eyeman  Fold      
Hero  ?  

[BorntoBubble]

I probably fold here. your very nearly a lock for a seat. In fact if i was in your shoes id be very confident that i had a seat so even though we are like 99% for a seat if we call and win we are 0% for a seat if we call and lose. I would say about 80% of the time you get a seat from this spot so why take on what is likely to be a 70/30 agaisnt his range? Someone will probably come in and wooosh my maths but im folding. I dont like calling off in sats would rather be the shover.

[mulhuzz]

Think this is a fold and not that close.

[Honeybadger]

Not a sick spot, an easy spot really. Fold. Probably call KK and AA and fold everything else... although I am not a satellite expert by any means.

[WotRTheChances]

Think there are a few factors which make it a clear fold.

1. Your equity vs the jammers range. Your equity vs this shove alone will only be slightly +cEV. He may well be a bit tilted, but people will also use the logic of 'well it'll look like i'm tilting if i just jam 20bb here with <insert massive hand>'

2. Lets not forget someone has limped UTG from 13bb. Although this villain may well just be a fish and limping with a range that could be as wide as including 45s etc, this person could also be limping with a range like QQ+, we don't know. If called we do know we're in trouble though.

3. Your position in the tournament. IDK exactly what your current odds are of getting a seat, but lets assume you have some edge over the field (the action in this hand alone would suggest i'd hope that to be true). Maybe you're 65-70% now?

Now you're probably ~55-58% vs the villain who has jammed and if called by the limper you're maybe 35% vs that range, although lets assume he folds ~75% of the time (and isn't just tarping with AK/JJ+).

Immediately vs the jam you're going to be a lock for a seat (or as close as possible to) nearly 60% of the time, however you're going to bust nearly 40% of the time. This on its own makes it a fold. Once you include the limper who could leave you with even less equity, it's pretty clear.

I probably dont fold QQ in game, but even that is probably a mistake.

[millidonk]

Fold and hope you don't get accused of colluding, especially if the person happened to jam with a worse hand..


Much rather be jamming atc later on then potentially having a flip or being crushed when you can just fold and still be in great shape.

[shipitgood]

Thanks everyone,

You are all right, it should be a fold and not a sick spot.

I didn't know what to do, as in theres 3 players with a lower chip stack, i'm 3rd in chips.

If the villain in this hand had one the previous hand there would have been 5 players left, he would have been massive chip leader (the current chip leader would have been out), I would have been second and pretty much locked a seat.

I was thinking I have him crushed and he's on tilt just jamming like that, but when I called i'm so sure that i'm going to have him dominated, re he has a lower pocket pair. Worst scanrio case scenario i see is maybe AK AQ.

If he hadn't just lost that previous hand i fold for sure.

You only have 15 seconds to make up your mind, and in this case i was far to brave (stupid) according to sat strategy. The time bar was at almost 0, and i called. I agree it was a mistake and he could easily be jamming a monster here over a short stack limper.

He had KK.

[polerization]

Fold and hope you don't get accused of colluding, especially if the person happened to jam with a worse hand..


Much rather be jamming atc later on then potentially having a flip or being crushed when you can just fold and still be in great shape.