Interesting spot with the nuts on all streets

[wazz]

Villain is Sergio Aido - won UKIPT London last year I believe. Don't know his online screenname but we've never played together and I recognised none of his amigos so there's no reason to believe he knows me from Adam. So far he's seen me play somewhat loose (we started 5-handed) and aggressive, including one bluff that got called, a few river bets and barrels that didn't, and one overbet (not huge, like 2.5k into 1k 2nd level). I've been 3betting a decent amount, don't think any of my 3bets have gone to showdown nor have I 3bet-folded by this point. I should hopefully appear aggressive and thinking. He has raise-folded preflop a couple of times so far.

He opens UTG at 75/150 to 350. His raise sizes have been varied but I don't think according to the strength of his hand at all. Folds to me in MP, I have AA and 3bet to 900. Folds round, he calls. (stacks > 30k at this point).

Flop: (pot: 2025)

He checks, I check.

My thinking here is that he shouldn't have a huge number of flush draws in his range so I'm not too concerned about giving him free cards; if he does have a flush draw, he's unlikely to go to war with it as this board smashes my range. When I check, I think my hand looks like QQ, JJ, Kx or a raggedy ace, or I could be going for a delayed c-bet.

Turn:

He checks, I bet 1400, he calls. Sizing is up for debate of course but I think I have to start getting value now.

River: blank, I forget, < 6 I think (pot 4825)

He checks, I bet 8k.

Like?

Normal river bet-size?

[BorntoBubble]

title is a little deceiving im sure you have not got the nuts after the turn but i may be wrong.

[mulhuzz]

don't like the river, you can't really have any bluffs with your line here.

[dakky]

bet flop. river looks like what it is

I mean you can check flop and try and induce one street but doubt he's going to take off. You get more value from his peeling range by betting.

Like if he peeled  he's not just going to check/fold flop with deep stacks

[Tal]

3bet then check behind on AK flop? Is it 2003 or is that back in fashion nowadays? I'm getting old, obviously as I remember that round first time

You evidently know what you are doing, but humour me: what percentage of the time do you check behind and bet the turn when you don't hit that flop? Just screams strength to me. Couple that with the river overbet and it's fairly face up.

You say when you check behind your hand looks like QQ, JJ, Kx or ALow. But then you want 9,400 off him when neither hand improves and the turn strengthens pretty much your entire perceived range.

I'm a hardcore nit, so I'd probably fold KQ there. Only way you get a customer is if he completely levels himself into calling.

I'm not playing EPTs, so you can happily educate me on why I'm being simplistic/stupid and I can learn with you.

What sort of hand do you expect a call from on the turn? 88? I suspect going huge on the river is the only way you have of getting him to put another chip in the pot, but that is by making him confuse himself into doing it. I'm not convinced this board works for that. Chat him into it IMO.

VBOL for the rest of the week if you're playing other events

[theprawnidentity]

As an extension on what Tal said, and similarly I am not playing EPT's, if you somehow had complete trash and were going sick on it pre I would expect you to c.bet with complete trash.  I imagine he wouldn't expect you to just give up on this flop very often.  I think checking looks much stronger than betting.  This also, by extension, means that our turn / river bets should look bladed as well.

I think I play this similarly, but bet flop, check turn behind and raise/bet river depending.

Also quite like bet, bet, bet actually given your image.  Gonna be pretty hard to find a definitive answer on what's best.  Just don't fold  

[AlexMartin]

think flop is fine, bet might be better v more creative/cally players. think you got too greedy otr, he's twice as likely to have kx as ax and probably not calling worse, think id bet fairly small to encourage thin value raises from the kx and vtown his mid pairs.

[JustinSayne]

Bet small, rep Ax, He can value raise good Kx and potentially bluff raise his bad Ax

[EvilPie]

I always like to bet flop then check turn rather than the other way round.

Gives him a chance to bluff the river thinking you've given up after your standard c-bet. Also if he's the creative type and has planned a bluff from the second he's seen the flop he might consider a check raise on the river to make it a much bigger amount for you to have to call off with your Ax on that nasty paired board.

Also agree with previous comments about your hand not being the nuts. Unless you get the opportunity to change your cards ott I don't think that would be possible on this run out.

[Sulphur man]

Bomb the flop if he has any kind of hand that's reasonably playable you
will get action if not the hands over here. If im you definitely not popping on those
shades on the flop. Agree as played its really face up. Would have to be a cooler to
get a large pot going at this stage under these circumstances.

Whats it like to flop a set of Aces?

[action man]

just bet flop. would be surprised if even Kx gave you action here. I guess youre hoping your repping JJ/QQ into a bluff here but he has too many Kx or sticky Ax hands in his range in his eyes to even entertain the idea of you making this play. The image you have detailed in the OP is one that would bet all AKx flops with light holdings. this coupled with the river overbet and you may aswell slide your hand face over. Id rather bet 800 on this river than 8k

[mulhuzz]

Whats it like to flop a set of Aces?

never the nuts on the turn though. must be hard etc etc