Live cash 5/10 My image is TAG, only showdown I've had Aces.
EP limp, I iso
to 40, get callers from the button, blinds and the limper, so 5 ways.
Flop (200)
Checks to me, I bet 140, btn calls, bb folds, sb calls, limper calls!
Turn (760)
Sb leads for 550, limper folds, I call, btn folds
River (1860)
Sb checks. He has 2500 back, I cover.
TURN He never flats sets on the flop, unlikely 54 but possible, so basically his only value hand here is Q9 and Qx clubs. There's a heart flush draw which he might have picked up with A9hh for example. Other hands are hands like KJcc, JTcc, A4cc. Given our fd is dominated sometimes that could be an argument for folding the turn, but we can bluff most of his range on brick rivers, and have 7 clean outs to the nuts, with some implied odds if he does have a value hand like Q9. I can also hero fold some club rivers fairly confidently, depending on his river action. Interested to hear if people would fold here though.
RIVER Q9 is possible but really unlikely, both combinatorically and why would he check the river, given my hand looks like AA/KK a lot - i really didn't think he was strong in any case. Narrowing his range to Qx cc and other missed draws basically. Assuming he folds all missed draws to any size within reason, and never folds if he doesn't happen to have A9hh or Q9, 44/55, what's the optimal bet size, to get him off Qx cc / A4cc?
I can see merits / problems with small, medium and large sizings! Thoughts?
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