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Poker Hand Analysis
River spot in Warm Up
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Topic: River spot in Warm Up (Read 2719 times)
PutYouOnAK/AQ
Jr. Member
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Posts: 90
River spot in Warm Up
«
on:
April 10, 2014, 06:57:53 PM »
Hero Stack:12000
Villain Stack 7200
Blinds 100/200 no ante villain opens utg to 450 folds to us on the button with
we make it 1150 folds to OR dont have stats but is a winning reg, and peels. flop
ck we cbet 1200 villain calls. turn is a
ck ck river is a
. Villain cks we bet 2350, villain moves all in for 5750.
Call or fold?
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lucky_scrote
Hero Member
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Posts: 3531
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #1 on:
April 10, 2014, 09:38:40 PM »
If he bets he's prob gonna make a lot of stuff fold.
When you bet river your range is so obv AA KK JJ a lot and he knows you're likely to be these. I just don't imagine he expects you to fold these hands given these stacks so just fold. If he's bluffing you then considered yourself schooled.
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Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
rfgqqabc
Hero Member
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Posts: 5483
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #2 on:
April 10, 2014, 10:34:12 PM »
Think dan is spot on. I might just bet 1.1k on the river and see what happens. I don't see him ever not having you beat but always gonna be some rofling going on.
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
pleno1
Hero Member
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Posts: 19107
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #3 on:
April 10, 2014, 11:19:53 PM »
yeh river sizing id either jam or bet 888, to get hero calls and bluffs respectively.
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
lucky_scrote
Hero Member
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Posts: 3531
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #4 on:
April 10, 2014, 11:24:27 PM »
I was going to say jam but it's close. We have to assume his range is a lot of AQ JJ TT 99. I highly doubt he would check the river with a BS hand like JT, KJ or AK.
I just don't think he jams over your bet with JJ and TT to warrant bet calling. Checking would be bad though.
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Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
PutYouOnAK/AQ
Jr. Member
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Posts: 90
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #5 on:
April 10, 2014, 11:30:20 PM »
Thanks for replies, I was actually Hero in this hand and I turned
into a bluff here. The guy called relatively quickly and I really hated the call.
Spoke to a few friends about it and one didnt like the line but i thought giving up the pot vs a capped range here when we have lots of qx and houses. One argued that I would lead all my value hands on the river but vs range I think there is 0 point in leading any value hands OTR
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lucky_scrote
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Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #6 on:
April 10, 2014, 11:40:35 PM »
Nah I wouldn't lead with my value hands here either, I am deffo check raising my q's and 9's full in the hope he feels he's committed and calls.
I don't expect many people to be folding vs your jam here, people just get tilted with betting in the first place and reluctantly call it off so I'd need to be doing it vs a reg I play a lot vs.
I played a very similar hand but it was with antes and not quite as deep so ranges not necessarily as tight. I'd been playing really tight and 3b from CO with A4cc vs UTG+1 open and he peeled. Flop QJx two clubs, I cbet he calls. Pairs the Queen check check, river blank and I bombed about 1.2x pot and got snapped by tens. Pretty fuming. Think that was the first time I didn't have aces there.
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Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
muckthenuts
Hero Member
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Posts: 1693
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #7 on:
April 11, 2014, 03:20:15 AM »
Did you have any reads on the 3bettor? I think the read you posted was villains impression of yourself if i've followed it correctly.
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cambridgealex
Hero Member
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Posts: 14876
#lovethegame
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #8 on:
April 11, 2014, 08:43:51 AM »
Quote from: muckthenuts on April 11, 2014, 03:20:15 AM
Did you have any reads on the 3bettor? I think the read you posted was villains impression of yourself if i've followed it correctly.
Thread is clearly an elaborate "I'm a winning reg" brag by OP
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[ ] 7 figure score
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SuuPRlim
Hero Member
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Posts: 10536
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #9 on:
April 11, 2014, 09:41:41 PM »
I agree that you'd most likely lead a Qx OTR, I int think a 9 is gonna bet/call but might call a bet, the two hands you might get action from a c/r is KK and AA but he doesn't nessercarily check the turn back with those.
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lucky_scrote
Hero Member
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Posts: 3531
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #10 on:
April 11, 2014, 11:24:36 PM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on April 11, 2014, 09:41:41 PM
I agree that you'd most likely lead a Qx OTR, I int think a 9 is gonna bet/call but might call a bet, the two hands you might get action from a c/r is KK and AA but he doesn't nessercarily check the turn back with those.
Definitely not leading Qx. The 3bettors range is heavily AQ AK JJ+ and some bluffs right? When we check I expect most people to bet the river with these hands. I don't think I lead anything unless I believe I can make him raise bluffs by betting small, by check raising it gives most people a chance to make a mistake by calling me on the river because I usually have it. As it happens, I think OP played JJ well, it's just seems like he chose the wrong opponent this time.
«
Last Edit: April 11, 2014, 11:26:09 PM by lucky_scrote
»
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Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
pleno1
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 19107
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #11 on:
April 12, 2014, 02:21:57 AM »
Villain can also call us with aq/ak that will check back 100%
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
lucky_scrote
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3531
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #12 on:
April 12, 2014, 10:28:59 AM »
Quote from: pleno1 on April 12, 2014, 02:21:57 AM
Villain can also call us with aq/ak that will check back 100%
You think anyone in history has checked back AQ here? AK folding or checking anyway.
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Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
pleno1
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 19107
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #13 on:
April 12, 2014, 10:36:05 AM »
Sorry I mean ak/other ace highs.
It's q94q5
We're perceived to be value betting qx and better probs
98s, 96s, 97s a4s/o, a5s/o, 54s, 65s, Ajs/o, a2
Etc etc can all call the river.
I'm not sure exactly what you're theoretical plan is here? Just always check our bluff catchers and nuts and never bluff our missed draws?
I think we should be betting something, I guess it also depends how wide you're calling the 3bet pre
Logged
Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
lucky_scrote
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3531
Re: River spot in Warm Up
«
Reply #14 on:
April 12, 2014, 12:20:29 PM »
Peeling tight given the stacks but I'm probably opening pretty tight too. Most people on a Sunday aren't going to be 3b'ing me light here too often.
Logged
Quote from: titaniumbean on April 05, 2013, 02:23:10 PM
<3 ENSUING
Quote from: lucky_scrote on August 04, 2014, 04:57:13 AM
stato_1 said, "banoffee pie i reckon"
stato_1 said, "this is delicious"
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